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Economic Currents

Keep up to date with the latest UHERO news.

Hawaii Statehood Conference

UHERO research will be highlighted at the upcoming Hawaii Statehood Conference. New Horizons for the Next 50 Years A Commemorative Conference will be held Friday, August 21 from 7:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. at the Hawai'i Convention Center in Honolulu. For more information visit: http://hawaii.gov/statehood

Forecast session presentations


UHERO Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: State Budget Crisis Threatens Recovery

Two recent developments have caused us to mark down a bit our already weak outlook for the Hawai'i economy. The H1N1 flu epidemic has worsened prospects for Japanese tourism, which will lead to somewhat larger visitor losses this year. But the bigger concern is fallout from the State fiscal crisis. Government actions to address the growing revenue shortfall will further depress jobs and especially income this year and next, with the risk that recovery could be further delayed. 

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County Economic Forecast: Neighbor Islands Bear Brunt of Recession

Hawai'i's counties face the most challenging economic environment in many years. The severe U.S. and global recessions will last through much of 2009, and when recovery does begin it is likely to be anemic by historical standards. This means a long and deep downturn for the Hawai'i visitor industry. Construction activity will continue to decline for the next several years, acting as a further drag on the economy. The downturns in tourism and construction are most severe on the Neighbor Islands, and so these counties will suffer a more severe recession than O'ahu. 

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Annual Hawai'i Forecast: After Sharp Drop, Recovery Will Take Time

The next several years will be difficult ones for Hawai'i businesses and households. The visitor industry will languish, as the deepest global recession in decades continues to undermine travel demand. 

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Hawai'i Construction Forecast Update: Global Downturn Hammers Construction

The global credit crisis and deepening recession have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai'i construction industry. Commercial and resort building are in retreat, hampered by a bleak national outlook and financing constraints. The residential construction downturn will continue as income and wealth losses undermine housing demand. We now expect a deeper adjustment in the local real estate market, although somewhat milder than past Hawai'i experience and much less severe than the steep contractions in some mainland regions. Government spending initiatives may provide substantial support for the industry in the medium term, but they will provide very little stimulus over the next two years. 

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