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Economic Currents

Keep up to date with the latest UHERO news.

Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: No Quick Recovery from Hawai'i Recession

The global financial crisis and widening global downturn have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai'i economy. Economic conditions are now poor in virtually every visitor market, and as a result we expect the current sharp tourism downturn to continue well into next year, with no significant recovery until 2010. Moderate contraction of the construction industry and the developing state fiscal crunch will also weigh on the local economy. We have not yet felt the full macroeconomic effects of these adverse developments, and next year will see larger job and income losses than we have experienced so far in the current recession.

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Global Economic Forecast: Crisis Contagion Spreads Global Recession

The unfolding financial crisis will cause the deepest slowdown of global growth in many years. In 2009, the rich world will be in recession, and developing economies will suffer a sharp reduction in growth rates. The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai'i's ailing visitor industry and the overall local economy.


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Hawai'i Quarterly Forecast Update: A Hard Fall for Hawai'i Tourism

The U.S. downturn and record-high oil prices have taken a big bite out of the Hawai'i tourism industry. Visitor arrivals will tumble 9% this year, the biggest annual decline since 2001. Because of deteriorating conditions for the U.S., Japanese and global economies, we now believe that a visitor industry recovery will not begin until 2010. While economic statistics for the aggregate economy this year are coming in a bit better than expected, this will not last. With the steep tourism downturn, ongoing slowing in construction, and a developing state fiscal crunch, the Hawai'i economy is in for a weak 2009. 

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Annual Hawai'i Construction Forecast: Construction Downturn Milder than Mainland

Hawaii's construction sector is now on the downward side of the cycle, but slowing continues to be considerably more moderate than in many U.S. mainland markets. The current business cycle slowdown, increased land and construction costs (mostly due to a surge in commodity prices), together with tighter credit conditions present challenges for new construction in the islands. Local non-residential construction and military housing renovation projects are helping to moderate the cyclical downturn. 

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Quarterly Hawai'i Forecast Update: Oil Surge Fuels Inflation, Threatens Deeper Downturn

Prospects for the Hawai'i economy have worsened significantly since our March Annual Hawai'i Forecast. The failures of ATA and Aloha airlines, the loss of a second NCL cruise ship, and the dramatic surge in oil prices will damage a local economy that was already feeling the effects of the national downturn. 

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