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Products: Hawaii's Economy

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Tourism and the Economy, Understanding the Economics of Tourism


Tourism and the Economy, Understanding the Economics of Tourism, James Mak, (Honolulu: University of Hawai‘i Press, 2004)


Hawai'i Economic Forecast Update:
Robust Growth and Inflation Will Continue in 2005

Hawai'i's economic prospects continue to look good. Both job and real income growth will finish the year with greater than 2% gains, and there is plenty of momentum heading into 2005. The Japanese visitor recovery has been a bit more attenuated than we expected a year ago, but U.S. mainland visitors have taken up any slack. While income growth in construction has been weaker than expected in the year's first half, we expect the industry to be a substantial support for growth over the next several years. Persistent high energy prices have taken a bit off performance this year and will continue to act as a drag on the economy. Over the next two years the economy will remain healthy, with a slowing of job growth as the expansion runs up against capacity constraints and a slower external environment.

forecast Summary

Identifying Long-run Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the Hawaii Tourism Model

Abstract Cointegration analysis has gradually appeared in the empirical tourism literature. However, the focus has been exclusively on the demand side, neglecting supply influences and risking endogeneity bias. One reason for this may be the difficulty identifying structural relationships in a system setting. We estimate a demand-supply model of Hawaii tourism using a theory-directed sequential reduction methodology suggested by Hall, Henry, and Greenslade (2002). The resulting model illustrates the viability of such an approach as well its challenges.

Published: “Modeling Tourism: A fully identified VECM approach”, with Byron Gangnes and Ting Zhou, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, 2009, 531-49.

working paper

Annual Hawaii Construction Forecast:
Moderate But Stable Growth Ahead

Construction in Hawai'i is poised to continue growing for the next several years at a moderate pace. The forecast for 6.2 percent growth in contracting receipts this year continues the pattern of slow but sure expansion. Military projects will "step up" the construction growth trajectory to a higher level. As a result, the current construction cycle is looking more sustainable than the late 1980s cycle.

forecast Summary

Hawai'i Economic Forecast Update:
Tourism Adds to Hawai'i Expansion

Hawai'i 's economic expansion is now mature. Tourism has joined construction and the service sectors to create broad-based economic strength. Our outlook sees continued strong growth for the next two years, but also an evolution away from residential housing as a key engine for growth. Constraints to growth have once again become apparent.

forecast Summary

Hawai'i Economic Forecast:
Expansion Remains Solid

The Hawaii economy continues to grow strongly. A hot housing market and associated construction spending support expansion in jobs and income, despite a less-than-complete recovery the Japanese tourism market. Plans for military spending will provide support for the construction industry over the next several years. Together with an improving external environment, these factors promise continued strong growth.

forecast Summary

Hawai‘i Economic Forecast:
Strong Expansion to Continue

Believe it or not, 2003 marked the seventh straight year of economic expansion as measured by growth in state real (inflation-adjusted) personal income. All but one of these years saw real growth of two percent or better. While the labor market turned down after 9/11, state job counts have since rebounded strongly. Conditions look good for continued growth through the coming two years.

forecast Summary

The Contribution of the University of Hawai‘i to Hawai‘i’s Economy in 2003

The University of Hawai‘i had its beginnings in 1907 as a college of agriculture and mechanical arts and became the territoryís Land Grant College, a designation that remains today. With the establishment of the College of Arts and Sciences in 1920, the College of Hawai‘i became a University. Enrollment growth in the early years was slow, but the close of World War II and increased educational demand fueled by returning GIís increased the Universityís enrollment to over 5,000 students in the 1950s. Statehood and the establishment of the University of Hawaiëi as the ìstate university marked the beginning of a period of accelerating enrollment that resulted in the formation of a large diverse system. In 1965, the State Legislature created a statewide system of community colleges and placed it within the University of Hawaiëi. In 1970, the University of Hawai‘i at Hilo was founded. In 1989, West O‘ahu College, an upper division institution opened in 1976, was renamed the University of Hawai‘i-West O‘ahu. The flagship Manoa campus became the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa.

uhero project report

Construction Forecast:
Hawai‘i Construction on a Roll

Construction in Hawaii is on a roll. With 2003 the fourth consecutive year of growth, its all upside for the year 2004. After growing more than 13% during 2002, we expect construction spending growth to slow slightly to 7% in 2003 followed by a surge to over 17% the next year.

forecast Summary

Hawaii Economic Forecast:
Construction to Fuel Strong Growth

There’s just no stopping this economy. Little more than six months after the outbreak of the War in Iraq, economic growth in Hawaii continues unabated. While the tourism industry is not wholly recovered, it has shown surprising resilience. And, buoyed by strong construction and housing, the broader economy has moved to new recordhigh job counts and levels of personal income. With permitting activity high and major military housing projects soon to get under way, construction will continue to grow in the coming year. Combined with gains in tourism, this will support healthy expansion for the Hawaii economy.

forecast Summary

Hawaii Economic Forecast Update:
Hawaii Expansion to Continue Despite Japanese Weakness

Weak Japanese travel continues to be a challenge for the state’s number one industry. For the past threemonths, the Japanese visitormarket has struggled to climb back from the sharp drop that accompanied the war in Iraq and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). At the same time, the mainland visitor market has been robust, and increases in lengths of stay have helped to generate modest increases in broad measures of visitor industry activity. Except for areas that are heavily dependent on Japanese tourism, this is shaping up to be a fairly good year for the visitor industry.

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Tax Incentives in Tourism: Hawaii’s Hotel Remodeling and Construction Tax Credits

Fiscal incentives are widely used by governments around the world to attract private investment in “preferred” industries, including tourism. Incentives are often granted to offset actual or perceived differences in the cost of doing business in different political jurisdictions whether the cost differences arise from tax differences or from differences in transportation, labor, or other costs. Incentives raise the return to capital thereby making investment in a location more attractive.

working paper

Hawaii Economic Forecast:
Post-War Tourism Struggle Won't Derail Economy

For the second time in 18 months, Hawaii is faced with a dramatically worsened external environment. Even before the outbreak of war in Iraq, war jitters had begun to chip away at the steady recovery progress of island tourism. Since the onset of hostilities, Japanese travel in particular has fallen sharply. And even as news from the front began to raise hopes for a speedy stabilization, the mushrooming Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) threatens to suppress Japanese arrivals here for many months. The environment for tourism has turned from bad to worse.

forecast Summary

Hawaii Economic Forecast:
Recovery Continues Despite Tourism Woes

Hawaii’s economy is on the road to recovery, but there is still plenty of unfinished business. The strength in U.S. mainland visitors has helped the tourism sector avoid a disastrous year, but the Japanese side continues to fall short of pre-recession levels. Few of the tourism jobs lost after 9-11 have returned. While the broader economy fares better, with a partial recovery in the non-ag job count, we have yet to see net gains in employment. In fact, extraordinary strength in several domestic sectors, such as the housing market and some service areas, means that Hawaii has maintained real income growth throughout this two-year economic downturn.

forecast Summary

Hawai‘i Outlook: Road to Recovery


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