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Products: Forecasts

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UHERO County Forecast: Growth Accelerates Statewide

Posted May 24, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

2012 was another year of strong tourism gains for Hawaii’s counties, and a year when significant growth spread to much of the broader economy. Oahu continues to be further along in recovery, but the Neighbor Islands are catching up fast. This year, economic growth will quicken, with an impetus from construction, which has turned the corner and is poised for a strong pickup in activity. The broadening recovery together with modest inflation will drive growth in real incomes across the counties over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upswing Picks Up Speed

Posted March 29, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Construction turned the corner in Hawaii last year after five straight years of contraction. We are now seeing impressive gains in percentage terms for private building permits, although these are starting from very depressed levels. Home building, retail and visitor industry upgrades, the ongoing boom in photovoltaic installation, and, yes, rail, will combine to drive a strong industry expansion over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Expansion Shifts Into Higher Gear

Posted February 15, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

2012 marked a transition to healthier growth. Room for rapid tourism gains is now limited, but other sectors will pick up the pace.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Foreacast: Developing Countries Buoy Asian Growth

Posted December 7, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

The never-ending European debt debacle and stuttering US recovery have taken a bite out of Asia-Pacific growth this year. Higher income Asian economies have suffered the most from the trade falloff. At the same time, labor markets and fiscal conditions in East and Southeast Asian developing countries remain far stronger than in the developed world. As a result, growth prospects for the region continue to look rosier than in much of the rest of the world, if softer than we saw in the early post-crisis rebound.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Tourism Shines, Construction Clouds Lifting

 

Hawaii’s tourism juggernaut powers onward, but growth elsewhere remains elusive. Broader—and a bit stronger—expansion is in the pipeline.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

 

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UHERO Annual Hawaii Forecast: Tourism Hot, But Broader Growth Still Elusive

Posted July 27, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii’s recovery is proceeding along two very different tracks. The tourism industry is on a tear, posting impressive rates of growth. With a few exceptions, the rest of the local economy is going nowhere. Nevertheless, the best residential building conditions in years and pending public projects set the stage for a construction upturn in 2013. And once the global gloom lifts, consumer confidence will drive some pickup in non-tourism sectors that have lagged in the recovery so far.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO County Forecast: Jobs Still Lag in County Recoveries

Posted May 18, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

The recovery of Hawaii’s county economies continues to be fueled by the visitor industry, especially by arrivals from non-traditional markets. Job growth turned positive in three of the four counties last year, but the extent of labor market gains was disappointing. The upturn will pick up speed in 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Visitor Industry Still Leading Recovery

Posted May 11, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

Tourism continues to be the primary engine of Hawaii’s recovery. A number of other sectors have turned the corner, and we expect gradually improving performance this year and the next.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Edging Toward Recovery

Construction has yet to turn the corner in Hawaii, but a pickup is now more clearly in sight. Single-family home construction languishes, but new high-rise condos, retail, and resort-related development will boost non-residential building. And legal challenges aside, rail construction is poised to begin in earnest as this year progresses.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Some Improvement, After Disappointing 2011

Hawaii’s stop-start recovery continued in the fourth quarter. We are a bit more optimistic about prospects for 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Hawaii in the Asia-Pacific Century

The Asia-Pacific region will see further incremental slowing in the near term, due to headwinds from struggling Western economies. Longer term, several key trends will shape the pattern of growth in the region, including lingering aftereffects of the Japanese quake, population aging in Korea and other Asian economies, the vulnerability of emerging countries to developed economy shocks, and the challenge China faces in moving to a consumer society. These issues will have implications for Hawaii tourism and for local policymaking in coming years.

This report represents the first UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast, a regionally focused report that replaces the broader Global Forecast we have prepared in past years. The Asia-Pacific Forecast reviews conditions and prospects for key countries within the region. For this maiden edition, we have also enlisted the help of an international team of scholars to provide expert analysis of key longer-term issues for regional economies and Hawaii.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in Pause Mode

Hawaii’s recovery pace has slowed to a standstill this year. Despite downside risks from the US and abroad, we expect modest gains for the state economy in 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow,
US Risk Looms Large

Against a backdrop of local slowing and deteriorating conditions in the US and global economy, Hawaii will see only modest growth in 2012. The strongest part of the tourism recovery is now behind us, and further industry gains will be more incremental. Job growth will continue to occur in many areas of the economy, but not at a pace that will rapidly alleviate unemployment. Somewhat better, but still measured, growth will occur in 2013-2014. While we are not forecasting a US recession, American economic and political conditions represent a substantial downside risk for Hawaii.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Uneven Recovery Continues

Hawaii's county economies turned the corner in 2010, led by rapidly improving visitor sectors. The recovery will broaden and deepen in 2011, but performance will be uneven.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Japanese Quake Won't Derail Recovery

The Japanese earthquake has led to a pause in visitor industry growth, but unless we see a further spike in oil prices, Hawaii's economic recovery will continue to build strength.

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