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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Hawaii in the Asia-Pacific Century

The Asia-Pacific region will see further incremental slowing in the near term, due to headwinds from struggling Western economies. Longer term, several key trends will shape the pattern of growth in the region, including lingering aftereffects of the Japanese quake, population aging in Korea and other Asian economies, the vulnerability of emerging countries to developed economy shocks, and the challenge China faces in moving to a consumer society. These issues will have implications for Hawaii tourism and for local policymaking in coming years.

This report represents the first UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast, a regionally focused report that replaces the broader Global Forecast we have prepared in past years. The Asia-Pacific Forecast reviews conditions and prospects for key countries within the region. For this maiden edition, we have also enlisted the help of an international team of scholars to provide expert analysis of key longer-term issues for regional economies and Hawaii.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in Pause Mode

Hawaii’s recovery pace has slowed to a standstill this year. Despite downside risks from the US and abroad, we expect modest gains for the state economy in 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow,
US Risk Looms Large

Against a backdrop of local slowing and deteriorating conditions in the US and global economy, Hawaii will see only modest growth in 2012. The strongest part of the tourism recovery is now behind us, and further industry gains will be more incremental. Job growth will continue to occur in many areas of the economy, but not at a pace that will rapidly alleviate unemployment. Somewhat better, but still measured, growth will occur in 2013-2014. While we are not forecasting a US recession, American economic and political conditions represent a substantial downside risk for Hawaii.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Uneven Recovery Continues

Hawaii's county economies turned the corner in 2010, led by rapidly improving visitor sectors. The recovery will broaden and deepen in 2011, but performance will be uneven.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Japanese Quake Won't Derail Recovery

The Japanese earthquake has led to a pause in visitor industry growth, but unless we see a further spike in oil prices, Hawaii's economic recovery will continue to build strength.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum

As last year's strong tourism rebound tapers off, Oahu rail transit work will lead an upturn in construction. Hawaii's recovery will strengthen and expand beyond the visitor industry to the broader economy.

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Construction Forecast: Rail Construction Will Spur Industry Pick-Up

Private construction has largely stabilized in the islands and is poised for limited growth. But the big impetus for construction on Oahu will come from rail transit. Assuming no additional delays, the rail project will lead to a sharp pick-up in construction beginning later this year, and the construction job base will approach its 2007 peak level by 2015. Expansive government infrastructure spending will amplify what was already a building outlook that favors Oahu relative to the Neighbor Island economies.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Two-Speed Recovery

Recovery edges forward in the Islands, for now primarily in tourism and mostly on Oahu. But the very rapid tourism rebound will begin to spill over to the rest of the economy in 2011. Hawaii's economy continues to recover, but in  very uneven fashion. Tourism is providing ongoing positive surprises with recent months rivaling the level of activity prior to the Aloha and ATA failures. 

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Global Economic Forecast: World Recovery Falters

Global economic recovery is proceeding, but in an uneven fashion. The developing Asian countries that were the first to show signs of life last year continue to expand at a healthy pace, driven by rebounding trade but also by strong domestic demand. Growth in the developed world remains decidedly subpar and insufficient to bring about a timely reduction in unemployment. With the pace of U.S. growth weakening in recent months and fiscal stimulus winding down, prospects are for slower growth in much of the world in 2011. True to form, recovery from the recent financial crisis is shaping up to be a long slog.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Strong Summer for Tourism

Hawaii's recovery continues, led by a better-than-expected performance from tourism. The visitor industry's summer strength is sustaining moderate job gains in related sectors. Much of the rest of the state economy remains relatively weak, and we continue to see net job losses in some areas. The cooling of growth in the U.S. and overseas markets will be a challenge for tourism over the next year. We expect continued Hawaii expansion, but at a restrained pace through 2011.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Construction Forecast: Construction Begins to Stabilize

Hawaii's construction industry continues to seek a bottom to what has been a bruising downturn. Recent months have brought some encouraging news, with permitting numbers beginning to stabilize and employment losses tapering off. The home resale market appears healthier, although this can be explained in part by the now-expired Federal tax credits. At the same time, non-resedential permitting remains very weak and focused on just a small number of large projects. Until private demand picks up, the industry will find its most promising support in public sector projects, which are expected to ramp up further in coming months.

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County Economic Forecast:
Counties Begin Recovery After Record Downturn

Recovery will take hold across Hawai'i's four counties during 2010.  Visitor numbers have stabilized and will gradually improve as growth strengthens in major tourism markets.  After record-setting job losses, limited net hiring will begin this year, building as we move into 2011 and 2012.  Private construction is bottoming out, and the sector will begin to see more benefit from Federal and State spending programs.  While growth is resuming, the pace of recovery will be slow, and it will take a number of years to return to relative economic health.  The challenge is greatest on the Neighbor Islands, which have suffered a much deeper downturn than O'ahu over the past two years.

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Annual Hawaii Economic Forecast:
Hawai'i Recovery Takes Hold

Hawai'i's economic recovery has begun. Employment is stabilizing, and many sectors will begin to add modest numbers of jobs as the year progresses. Visitor arrivals and spending will continue to firm along with economic conditions in our major tourism markets. Private construction is bottoming out, and the sector will begin to see more benefit from Federal and State spending programs. While growth is resuming, the pace of recovery will be slow, constrained by tepid U.S. consumer spending and the drag from the State and local fiscal conditions. As a result, unemployment will recede only gradually from current high levels.

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Hawaii Economic Forecast Update:
Weak Growth Expected in New Year

Prospects are good for an early-2010 return to growth in Hawai'i. Recent data suggest we are past the trough of the visitor industry downturn, and gradual improvement will occur as the global recovery takes hold. The construction cycle is expected to bottom out late next year. After steep losses, most industries will begin to start adding jobs early in the new year. The pace of recovery will be modest, because of lingering weakness in the U.S. and Japan and the disastrous State budget picture.

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Global Economic Forecast:
Asia Leads World Recovery

After a deep, synchronized recession, growth is resuming across a broad swath of the global economy. Leading the rebound are the dynamic Asian economies. These countries, which were hit hard by last year's collapse of world trade, have now seen a return to export-led growth, much of it originating from demand within the region. Growth has also returned to the U.S. and Japan, but the depth of the decline, lost household wealth, and lingering credit problems mean that full recovery will take a number of years.

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