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Products: Forecasts

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RECENT POSTS

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures

Revenue Decoupling for Electric Utilities: Impacts on Prices and Welfare

Revenue Decoupling for Electric Utilities: Impacts on Prices and Welfare

Revenue Decoupling for Electric Utilities: Impacts on Prices and Welfare

Mandatory Food Waste Recycling Ordinance for Large Food Establishments in Honolulu, Hawaii

Mandatory Food Waste Recycling Ordinance for Large Food Establishments in Honolulu, Hawaii

Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm

Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm

UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Growth Down, But Not Out


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Outlook for the Hawai'i Economy

We predict a continuation of this weakness into 1998. While visitor arrivals will continue to rebound somewhat from the weak performance of early 1997, we expect overall arrivals to rise just 2.0% above 1997 levels. Any strengthening in arrivals will have to come from the US mainland, as the strong dollar and turmoil in East Asia lead to no growth in the eastbound market.

forecast


Outlook for the Hawai'i Economy

The State's fragile economic recovery appears to have faltered in the second half of 1997. While first half inflation adjusted income growth was over 1%, our preliminary estimate of personal income growth has been reduced from an April 1997 forecast of 1.4% to just 1.0%.

forecast


Outlook for the Hawai'i Economy

We predict a continuation of the modest recovery that began in 1994. While visitor arrivals will rebound somewhat from the very weak performance of the second half of 1996, we expect overall arrivals to fall short of the 1996 total. Broader measures of economic health will firm slightly. We predict greater than 1% increase in real personal income in both 1997 and 1998. 1996 should also be the last year of overall job losses, with small net additions of jobs beginning. Construction however will continue to be a moderate drag on the economy. Inflation is expected to remain very low by Hawai'i standards.

forecast


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