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Products: Forecasts

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Outlook for the Hawai'i Economy

The State's fragile economic recovery appears to have faltered in the second half of 1997. While first half inflation adjusted income growth was over 1%, our preliminary estimate of personal income growth has been reduced from an April 1997 forecast of 1.4% to just 1.0%.

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Outlook for the Hawai'i Economy

We predict a continuation of the modest recovery that began in 1994. While visitor arrivals will rebound somewhat from the very weak performance of the second half of 1996, we expect overall arrivals to fall short of the 1996 total. Broader measures of economic health will firm slightly. We predict greater than 1% increase in real personal income in both 1997 and 1998. 1996 should also be the last year of overall job losses, with small net additions of jobs beginning. Construction however will continue to be a moderate drag on the economy. Inflation is expected to remain very low by Hawai'i standards.

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