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Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow,
US Risk Looms Large

Against a backdrop of local slowing and deteriorating conditions in the US and global economy, Hawaii will see only modest growth in 2012. The strongest part of the tourism recovery is now behind us, and further industry gains will be more incremental. Job growth will continue to occur in many areas of the economy, but not at a pace that will rapidly alleviate unemployment. Somewhat better, but still measured, growth will occur in 2013-2014. While we are not forecasting a US recession, American economic and political conditions represent a substantial downside risk for Hawaii.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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KITV Project Economy: New GDP Numbers Cause For Concern?

Posted August 26, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Carl Bonham discusses

  • The downward revision of second quarter GDP estimates
  • Contributors to the downward revision
  • The Federal Reserve's position on fiscal stimulus

watch Blog


KITV Project Economy: UH Economist Discusses Latest Unemployment Numbers In Hawaii

UHERO Research Fellow, Sumner LaCroix discusses

  • What happened in the stock market this week?
  • What changes did we see in jobs and unemployment locally?
  • What are the major challenges for the Social Security Administration?

watch Q / A


On the Choice of the Unit Period in Time Series Models

Posted August 14, 2011 | Categories: Fuleky, Peter

When estimating the parameters of a process, researchers can choose the reference unit of time (unit period) for their study. Frequently, they set the unit period equal to the observation interval. However, I show that decoupling the unit period from the observation interval facilitates the comparison of parameter estimates across studies with different data sampling frequencies. If the unit period is standardized across these studies, then the parameters will represent the same attributes of the underlying process, and their interpretation will be independent of the sampling frequency.

Published: Fuleky, P., 2012. On the choice of the unit period in time series models. Applied Economics Letters, 19 (12), 1179-1182.

 

working paper version


KITV Project Economy: How The Economic Climate Is Affecting Tourism

Posted August 12, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Dr. Carl Bonham discusses

  • What is the state of consumer confidence?
  • What will 2011 look like for the tourism industry?
  • How does UHERO's analysis differ from that of the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

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KITV Project Economy: Tourism Industry Expects To Benefit From Market Plunge

Posted August 10, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What is causing the swings in the stock market?
  • Will another country be next in line to receive a credit rating downgrade?
  • What role will consumer confidence play in the direction of the economy?

watch


KITV Project Economy: UH Economist Breaks Down Stock Market Tumble

Posted August 8, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Research Fellow, Dr. Sumner LaCroix discusses:

  • S&P's downgrade: How does it change things?
  • Did we learn something about the US economy from the S&P report on the US credit rating downgrade?
  • How will the lower US long-term credit rating affect nuts and bolts decisions by families, businesses, and governments?

watch Q/A


KITV Project Economy: Explaining The Wild Ride On Wall Street

Posted August 5, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Research Fellow, Dr. Sumner LaCroix discusses:

  • U.S. employment numbers for July
  • Did any sectors generate new jobs?
  • What is going on with the decline in the stock market?

watch Q/A


Musings on Tourism and Tourism Development

Posted August 2, 2011 | Categories: Presentations

UHERO Research Fellow James Mak shared his thoughts on tourism and tourism development based on 35 plus years of research at the Northeast Asian Economic Forum Meeting on August 2, 2011.

presentation


KITV Project Economy: Breaking Down The Debt Ceiling

Posted July 29, 2011 | Categories: Hawaii's Economy, Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What has been happening in congress to address the debt ceiling and the nation's finance?
  • Will the Gang of Six plan raise the debt ceiling?
  • Will the plan voted on by the house solve the debt ceiling crisis?

watch blog analysis


KITV Project Economy: Debt Talks On Our Nations Capitol

Posted July 22, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What has been happening in congress to address the debt ceiling and the nation's finance?
  • Will the Gang of Six plan raise the debt ceiling?
  • Will the plan voted on by the house solve the debt ceiling crisis?

watch blog analysis


KITV Project Economy: European Debt Crisis

Posted July 15, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What's the problem with the debt crisis in Europe?
  • What happens of Europe defaults on their debt?
  • What's happened in Europe this week?
  • Is the US headed in the same direction?

watchQ&A


Efficient Management of Coastal Marine Nutrient Loads with Multiple Sources of Abatement Instruments

Pollution management based on marginal abatement costs is optimal only if those abatement costs are specified correctly. Using the example of nitrogen pollution in groundwater, we show that the marginal abatement cost function for any given pollution source can be directly derived from a social-welfare maximization problem, wherein controls include both abatement instruments and inputs to pollution-generating production of a good or service. The solution to the optimization model reveals that abatement instruments for each source should be used in order of least marginal abatement cost, and the sources should in turn abate in order of least cost. The least-cost result remains optimal, even when the abatement target is exogenously determined.

Working Paper


KITV Project Economy: Disappointing Unemployment Numbers

Posted July 8, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses disappointing job creation and the US debt ceiling.

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KITV Project Economy: State Of Our Economy

Posted June 24, 2011 | Categories: Hawaii's Economy, Media

UHERO Executive Director Dr. Carl Bonham discusses the impact of several different factors on the current state of the economy.

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