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Alcohol Use and Pregnancies Among Youth: Evidence From a Semi-Parametric Approach

Despite a well-established correlation between alcohol intake and various risk-taking sexual behaviors, the causality remains unknown. I model the effect of alcohol use on the likelihood of pregnancy among youth using a variety of estimation techniques. The preference is given to the semi-parametric model where the cumulative distribution of heterogeneity is approximated by a 4-point discrete distribution. Using data on 17-28 year-old women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I find that alcohol consumption increases the likelihood of pregnancy by 4.7 percentage points. Quantitatively similar but statistically weaker effects were found in the fully parametric models such as the two-stage least squares model and the bivariate probit model. Finally, the fully parametric models that ignore the effect of unobserved heterogeneity failed to establish this relationship.

Working Paper

KITV Project Economy: Hawaii's Unemployment Inches Up

Posted September 16, 2011 | Categories: Media

Kenny Choi interviews Sumner La Croix.

  • Hawaii’s unemployment rate increased from 6.1 percent in July to 6.2 percent in August. Why did this happen?
  • The number of people employed in the state decreased from July to August. Which sectors were most responsible?
  • The US stock markets rallied this week. What’s going on?

Watch Q / A

The Direct and Indirect Contributions of Tourism to Regional GDP: Hawaii

After two decades of development and refinement, the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) has been touted as the most comprehensive way to measure the economic contribution of tourism to a destination's gross domestic product. However, recent literature has pointed out that the TSA is deficient in that it does not yield the indirect contribution of tourism to GDP. This paper shows that the TSA cannot be used to estimate the indirect contribution unless the import content of tourism is zero. The indirect contribution can be estimated using input-output (I-O) multipliers. We illustrate using Hawaii as an example.

Working Paper

Islands of Sustainability in Time and Space

We review the economics perspective on sustainable resource use and sustainable development. Under standard conditions, dynamic efficiency leads to sustainability of renewable resources but not the other way around. For the economic‐ecological system as a whole, dynamic efficiency and intergenerational equity similarly lead to sustainability, but ad hoc rules of sustainability may well lead to sacrifices in human welfare. We then address the challenges of extending economic sustainability to space as well as time and discuss the factors leading to optimal islands of preservation regarding renewable resources. Exogenous mandates based on moral imperatives such as self‐sufficiency and strong sustainability may result in missed win‐win opportunities that could improve both the economy and the environment, as well as increase social welfare across generations.


KITV Project Economy: Reaction To Obama's Speech

Posted September 9, 2011 | Categories: Media

Kenny Choi interviews Byron Gangnes.

  • Will Obama's jobs plan work?
  • How is it possible that it won't add to the federal deficit?
  • What came about in Federal Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech?

watch Blog

KITV Project Economy: Hawaii's Economy Slowing Down

Posted September 2, 2011 | Categories: Media

Kenny Choi interviews UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham.

  • You released the annual Hawaii forecast for 2012 and beyond; what did you find?
  • How much growth do we need to have a solid or decent economy?
  • Are we seeing strong tourism numbers for this year or next year?

watch Read Report

Annual Hawaii Forecast: With Hawaii Growth Slow,
US Risk Looms Large

Against a backdrop of local slowing and deteriorating conditions in the US and global economy, Hawaii will see only modest growth in 2012. The strongest part of the tourism recovery is now behind us, and further industry gains will be more incremental. Job growth will continue to occur in many areas of the economy, but not at a pace that will rapidly alleviate unemployment. Somewhat better, but still measured, growth will occur in 2013-2014. While we are not forecasting a US recession, American economic and political conditions represent a substantial downside risk for Hawaii.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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KITV Project Economy: New GDP Numbers Cause For Concern?

Posted August 26, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Carl Bonham discusses

  • The downward revision of second quarter GDP estimates
  • Contributors to the downward revision
  • The Federal Reserve's position on fiscal stimulus

watch Blog

KITV Project Economy: UH Economist Discusses Latest Unemployment Numbers In Hawaii

UHERO Research Fellow, Sumner LaCroix discusses

  • What happened in the stock market this week?
  • What changes did we see in jobs and unemployment locally?
  • What are the major challenges for the Social Security Administration?

watch Q / A

On the Choice of the Unit Period in Time Series Models

Posted August 14, 2011 | Categories: Fuleky, Peter

When estimating the parameters of a process, researchers can choose the reference unit of time (unit period) for their study. Frequently, they set the unit period equal to the observation interval. However, I show that decoupling the unit period from the observation interval facilitates the comparison of parameter estimates across studies with different data sampling frequencies. If the unit period is standardized across these studies, then the parameters will represent the same attributes of the underlying process, and their interpretation will be independent of the sampling frequency.

Published: Fuleky, P., 2012. On the choice of the unit period in time series models. Applied Economics Letters, 19 (12), 1179-1182.


working paper version

KITV Project Economy: How The Economic Climate Is Affecting Tourism

Posted August 12, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Dr. Carl Bonham discusses

  • What is the state of consumer confidence?
  • What will 2011 look like for the tourism industry?
  • How does UHERO's analysis differ from that of the Hawaii Tourism Authority.

watch Blog

KITV Project Economy: Tourism Industry Expects To Benefit From Market Plunge

Posted August 10, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Executive Director, Dr. Carl Bonham discusses:

  • What is causing the swings in the stock market?
  • Will another country be next in line to receive a credit rating downgrade?
  • What role will consumer confidence play in the direction of the economy?


KITV Project Economy: UH Economist Breaks Down Stock Market Tumble

Posted August 8, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Research Fellow, Dr. Sumner LaCroix discusses:

  • S&P's downgrade: How does it change things?
  • Did we learn something about the US economy from the S&P report on the US credit rating downgrade?
  • How will the lower US long-term credit rating affect nuts and bolts decisions by families, businesses, and governments?

watch Q/A

KITV Project Economy: Explaining The Wild Ride On Wall Street

Posted August 5, 2011 | Categories: Media

UHERO Research Fellow, Dr. Sumner LaCroix discusses:

  • U.S. employment numbers for July
  • Did any sectors generate new jobs?
  • What is going on with the decline in the stock market?

watch Q/A

Musings on Tourism and Tourism Development

Posted August 2, 2011 | Categories: Presentations

UHERO Research Fellow James Mak shared his thoughts on tourism and tourism development based on 35 plus years of research at the Northeast Asian Economic Forum Meeting on August 2, 2011.


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