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Construction Forecast:
Surge in Nonresidential Building Sustains Cycle

Posted April 6, 2007 | Categories: Forecasts, Hawaii's Economy

Hawai‘i’s construction cycle is near or past its peak, depending on which sector you look at. While the homebuilding peak occurred in 2005-06, the peak in nonresidential construction is likely in 2007 or 2008. The end of this cycle will be characterized by a slow decline in total real construction spending, but continued increase in the nominal tax base as construction costs rise between 4% and 5% each year. With home price appreciation over and affordability at recent lows, real residential construction will continue to recede gradually. At the same time, nonresidential elements of construction will be relatively stronger, and the overall outlook continues to be one of gradual slowing. Despite a slow decline from their expected peak in 2007, construction employment and earnings will remain above 2006 levels for the next several years.

forecast Summary


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