Assessing the Risks of Sea Level Rise: Knowledge and Policy Preferences Among Hawaiʻi’s Civil Servants

Executive Summary

This survey captures the views of Hawaiʻi’s civil servants on the risks associated with SLR and their preferred strategies for adaptation. Conducted between June and August 2024, the survey targeted employees from State and County agencies across Hawaiʻi’s four counties (Hawai‘i County, Honolulu County, Kaua‘i County, and Maui County). A total of 129 respondents from a wide range of government agencies participated in the survey. These respondents offered their insights into current risk perceptions, policy preferences for adaptation, and the challenges of planning for SLR in Hawaiʻi.

Key Findings:

• Understanding and Knowledge: Most civil servants consider themselves moderately or well-informed about SLR, with 85% reporting that they feel knowledgeable about the topic. Yet over half (53%) believe SLR is caused by a mix of human and natural factors, while only 33% correctly attribute it primarily to human-induced climate change. This gap suggests that while many civil servants are aware of SLR’s existence, there is a need for further education on the underlying causes and mechanisms driving it.
• Risk Perceptions: The majority of civil servants recognize the severe risks posed by SLR. More than 80% believe that SLR will have significant or catastrophic impacts on Hawai‘i’s residents within the next 50 years. Coastal erosion and beach loss rank as top concerns, with 85% and 84%, respectively, viewing these as inevitable. Additionally, 91% expect rising insurance premiums, while 81% predict disruptions to tourism. These results suggest that there is widespread acknowledgment of SLR’s socio-economic and environmental consequences among Hawai‘i’s civil servants.
• Policy Preferences: Civil servants express strong support for government responsibility in protecting natural resources and implementing SLR adaptation measures. More than 85% support policies that focus on infrastructure adaptation, such as government-funded efforts to flood-proof or relocate critical infrastructure. Additionally, 86% back the restoration of living shorelines like coral reefs and wetlands. However, there is less support (50%) for policies that provide financial incentives for private property owners, reflecting concerns about using public funds for private benefits.
• Preparedness: Despite broad concern about SLR, only 7% of respondents report that their agencies prioritize it as a top concern, although 30% rank it high on their list of priorities. State-level agencies tend to view SLR as a higher priority than County-level agencies, but most of our respondents acknowledge significant gaps in readiness. Half of the respondents believe the State is underprepared. Strong majorities also believe that the counties lack clear adaptation plans, but many are unsure about the specific preparedness efforts underway.
• Obstacles: Respondents reported that the most significant obstacles to planning and implementing SLR policies include insufficient staff resources, lack of political will, and funding constraints. Both State and County respondents cited these challenges. State officials are particularly concerned about the lack of regulatory tools for policy enforcement, while County officials emphasize coordination difficulties with other government agencies and external stakeholders. These barriers may hinder the development and enforcement of effective SLR adaptation policies.

Recommendations:

• Enhance Climate Science Education: Targeted education initiatives may help to increase civil servants’ understanding of the role human-induced climate change plays in driving SLR. This will equip them with the knowledge needed to make well-informed policy decisions.
• Prioritize Funding and Resources: Addressing SLR requires adequate funding for both planning and implementation. The State and counties must develop new revenue streams to support long-term adaptation measures. Allocating resources for staffing, data analysis, and regulatory development will be critical for building the capacity needed to mitigate SLR risks.
• Promote Cross-Sector Communication: Hawai‘i’s civil servants need platforms for regular dialogue across agencies to discuss concerns, foster collaboration, and create a shared sense of urgency in addressing SLR.
• Improve Data Accessibility: There is a clear need to expand access to detailed climate projections, specialized data, and technical resources for all agencies. This will ensure that decision-makers have the tools necessary to address SLR challenges effectively.
• Strengthen Coordination Mechanisms: Hawai‘i civil servants may benefit from the development of more formal networks to institutionalize regular collaboration between State, County, and external stakeholders. This objective could be partially achieved by expanding the capacity of the State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission and the Four County Sustainability Network to ensure cohesive implementation of SLR strategies.

1. Introduction

Recent projections for global sea level rise (SLR) highlight the growing threats to regions like Hawai‘i. As an island chain in the central Pacific, Hawai‘i’s unique vulnerability to rising seas demands careful planning and the development of robust adaptation policies to protect its communities and ecosystems. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report in 2014, which projected a global mean sea level rise (SLR) of 3.2 feet by the end of the century, scientific estimates have increased to a range of three to four feet over the same period. Notably, current models suggest that Hawai‘i and other tropical Pacific regions will experience sea level rise 16% to 20% higher than the global average (Sweet et al. 2022). According to the Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Viewer, sea levels around the archipelago are expected to rise between 0.7 and 1.5 feet by 2050 and between 1.3 and 8.0 feet by 2100 (Hawaiʻi Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, Version 1.3).

These projections are especially alarming for Hawaiʻi, which is already grappling with severe coastal erosion, frequent king tides, wave over wash flooding, backshore flooding from groundwater rise, storm drain backflow, and restricted beach access (Hawaiʻi State Climate Commission 2022). Rising sea levels are increasing groundwater inundation, which affects the State’s water table, exacerbating flooding and drainage issues (Habel et al. 2020). Groundwater inundation is also increasing saltwater intrusion into wetlands and estuaries, threatening coastal ecosystems, agriculture, and public health by overwhelming wastewater systems near the coast (Kane et al. 2015; McKenzie, Habel, and Dulai 2021). Approximately 70% of beaches on Maui, Kaua‘i, and O‘ahu are eroding at an average rate of 0.4 feet per year, with 9% of the total beach length studied on these islands lost to erosion in the past century (Fletcher et al. 2012). Coastal highways on O‘ahu, Maui, and Moloka‘i have already been impacted by erosion and flooding due to high tides and storm surges, and sea level rise is expected to more than double historical erosion rates by the end of the century (Anderson et al. 2015).

Why survey Hawaiʻi’s Civil Servants about Sea Level Rise?

In response to growing predictions of future SLR hazards, the State of Hawaiʻi Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands has argued that the State legislature and State and County agencies must “maintain a long-term focus on building resiliency to rising seas by reducing overall vulnerability of infrastructure and implementing adaptation measures to allow our State to continue to thrive with higher seas.”  (Hawaiʻi Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, 2022). Our survey aimed to gather insights from public officials involved in the planning, implementation, and enforcement of the State’s response to SLR regulations and adaptation. As key players in planning, policymaking, and implementation, Hawai‘i’s civil servants are uniquely positioned to understand both the challenges and opportunities in responding to climate change.

Surveys are commonly used to gain deeper insights into the attitudes and preferences of civil servants. The Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey, conducted since 2002 by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (2024), is a notable example, covering a broad spectrum of federal agencies to assess employment and motivational issues such as overall job satisfaction and intent to leave their positions (Fernandez, Moldogaziev, and Oberfield, 2015; Meyer-Sahling et al. 2021).  In recent years, surveys of public servants have become increasingly common worldwide, including large-scale international efforts like the Global Survey of Public Servants (Ayesha and Schuster 2023; Meyer-Sahling et al. 2021).

Although less common than broad studies of employment satisfaction, surveys have also been used to better understand how local and state-level officials are responding to the challenges of climate change. Notable surveys and focus groups have been conducted in coastal Oregon (Cone et al. 2008), as well as vulnerable states on the U.S. Atlantic coast such as Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Florida (Linderman et al. 2015; Hamin, Gurran, and Emlinger, 2014; Frazier, Wood, and Yarnal 2010). Our survey is modeled on the approach used by Moser et al. (2018) for the California Coastal Adaptation Needs Assessment, which surveyed 698 coastal management professionals to assess adaptation successes and ongoing challenges in vulnerable areas of California.

2. Survey Methodology

The survey was conducted online through Survey Monkey and distributed to employees of Hawai‘i’s State and County agencies between June and August of 2024. We received a total of 129 responses: 27 from State government agency staff, and 102 from County-level officials. The survey instrument (see Appendix A) was adapted from an earlier survey conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (Baldassare et al., 2023).

We used a convenience sampling method, reaching out to contacts across various government departments at the federal, State, and County/city levels.^[1] In some instances, we contacted department heads directly, who were then asked to share the questionnaire with their colleagues. Due to the multiple distribution channels used, we are unable to determine how many civil servants received the invitation, and thus cannot provide an overall response rate.

While the use of convenience sampling allowed us to reach a wide range of respondents, the sample should not be considered representative of all government agencies in Hawai‘i. Furthermore, given the topic of this survey, respondents may represent a subset of individuals who are more engaged with climate change and SLR issues, potentially skewing the results toward a higher level of concern and support for particular adaptation policies. This potential selection bias is important to keep in mind, because it could mean that the level of awareness, concern, or support for specific policies among the broader population of civil servants may differ. For example, civil servants who are less connected to these networks or who are less engaged with environmental issues may have different views on the urgency of SLR or the appropriateness of certain policy responses.

Consequently, generalizing these findings to the entire population of civil servants in Hawai‘i should only be done with caution. While they provide a valuable snapshot of the opinions and attitudes among a large number of Hawai‘i civil servants engaged in SLR adaptation work, additional research is necessary to fully understand the broader range of perspectives on SLR and related policies across Hawai‘i’s State and County agencies.

Agencies Represented in the Survey

The survey participants represented a diverse range of State and County agencies. In total, 27 (21%) of respondents worked for State agencies and 102 (79%) worked for County agencies. Table 1 provides a further breakdown of the type of agencies in which the respondents were employed.

• Administrative: This group includes respondents from the mayors’ offices, legal offices, State and County budget offices, the Neighborhood Commission Office, and the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
• Emergency and Essential Services: This group includes police and fire departments and emergency management agencies.
• Land and Resource Management: This category includes parks departments, coastal zone management agencies, the Office of Conservation and Coastal Lands, the Board of Water Supply, and the Office of Solid Waste Management.
• Planning and Infrastructure: This category includes planning offices, climate change and sustainability offices, research and development agencies, property assessment agencies, and the State Department of Transportation.

Positions held by Survey Respondents

The respondents held a variety of positions within Hawaiʻi State and County agencies. Table 2 presents the distribution of respondents based on their respective roles:

• Administrators, Finance, and Support Staff: This group includes individuals who worked as administrators, finance and other support staff.
• Health and Emergency Responders. This group includes police, fire fighters, EMS responders, and eldercare agency staff.
• Directors and Managers: This group includes self-identified executive directors, directors and managers.
• Specialists and Technicians. This group includes the largest number of respondents, including planners, engineers, specialists, attorneys, and other individuals with specialized or technical skills. 3. Knowledge, Media Exposure, and Beliefs

3. Knowledge, Beliefs, Topic Exposure

This section examines respondents’ self-reported knowledge of sea level rise, their media exposure on the issue, and their beliefs about the cause of SLR.

Figure 1 shows that 85% of civil servants feel at least moderately informed about SLR, with 32% well informed and 53% moderately informed. In contrast, 14% report feeling less knowledgeable about SLR. When the results are broken down by State and County respondents, all State-level participants reported feeling more informed about SLR, with 100% considering themselves either well informed (52%) or moderately informed (48%). In contrast, only 26% of County-level respondents felt well informed, while 55% described themselves as moderately informed.

The majority of our respondents report being regularly exposed to media coverage of SLR. According to our findings, 68% hear about it either weekly or monthly. However, 25% report much lower levels of engagement. These findings suggest that while most civil servants are kept informed through frequent media exposure, there remains a notable portion that could benefit from increased coverage or targeted communication efforts to enhance their awareness of SLR and its impacts. Discussions about SLR, coastal flooding, and erosion with colleagues occur regularly for about half of the respondents. A combined 49% engage in these conversations either weekly or monthly.

Looking at total responses displayed in Figure 3, Hawaiʻi’s civil servants express a high degree of alignment: 92% believe SLR is happening.  Yet as Figure 4 shows, there are significant differences in opinions about the causes of SLR. Over half of the respondents believe that SLR results from a combination of human activities and natural processes, while 33% attribute it primarily to human activities. These findings highlight the need for greater education on this topic, as scientific evidence shows that the current SLR crisis is caused by anthropogenic climate change (Sweet et al, 2022).

According to Figure 5, the top sources of information for our civil servant respondents include County governments (63%), local news outlets (61%), and State agencies (58%). Experts at research or academic institutions (57%) and national news outlets (54%) are also significant sources of information. Federal agencies and scientists or engineers play a notable role, while social media and advocacy groups are less commonly relied upon. Perhaps unsurprisingly, these results highlight a preference among civil servants for governmental and traditional media sources, as well as expert opinions, over less formal channels of information.

Most respondents (Figure 6) rely on general environmental and property data, such as flood risk maps (43%), land use plans (41%), property tax information, and future sea level rise projections  (37%). Topographic maps, coastal evaluation data, and climate/weather information are also frequently used. Nevertheless, 24% do not consult any sea level rise data, and specialized resources like shoreline change rates or historical sea level rise information are less commonly referenced.

4. How Do Civil Servants Assess the Risk of SLR?

This section explores how Hawai‘i’s civil servants assess the risks and impacts of SLR. It also examines when they believe SLR will begin to harm Hawai‘i and how serious they expect the impacts to be in the coming decades.

Figure 7 compares civil servants’ personal concern about SLR with their perception of how concerned their colleagues in Hawai‘i State or local government and elected officials are about the issue. Personally, 82% of respondents express concern, with 40% feeling very concerned and 42% concerned. In contrast, when asked about their colleagues, respondents believe only 63% are concerned. This discrepancy suggests that while many civil servants are personally worried about SLR, they may underestimate the level of concern held by their peers.

When asked how concerned they think Hawai‘i’s elected officials are, respondents believe they are even less concerned than their peers, with only 52% of respondents indicating that elected officials are concerned or very concerned. Yet a previous UHERO-ISR survey found that 94% of elected officials in the State legislature and County councils said that they are “concerned or very concerned” about SLR (Loeb & Moore, 2023). Indeed, elected officials have expressed levels of concern almost equal to those of State-level civil servants in this survey and even higher than County-level respondents. This significant gap between perceived and actual concern could undermine the sense of urgency needed to develop effective SLR policies. Recognizing the shared concern among civil servants and elected officials could strengthen collaboration and accelerate policy action to address the challenges posed by rising sea levels.

Figure 8 shows that most civil servants – both State and County – believe the people of Hawai‘i are already being harmed by SLR. But this belief is significantly stronger among State officials, with 93% indicating that the harm is happening right now. In contrast, only 67% of County officials share this view. Among County respondents, opinions are more varied, with some believing harm will occur in the next 10 to 100 years, and 5% stating that they think Hawai‘i will never be harmed by SLR. This disparity highlights differing perceptions of immediacy between State and County officials regarding the impacts of SLR on Hawai‘i’s residents. 

The overwhelming majority of respondents (84%) believe SLR is already impacting Hawai‘i’s coastlines, with 65% strongly agreeing and 19% agreeing (see Figure 9). This consensus reflects widespread recognition of SLR’s immediate effects among civil servants, although there is some variation when respondents are broken out by department. Notably, all of those in administrative departments strongly agree (73%) or agree (17%). In contrast, only 40% of emergency services personnel share this view, though their sample size is small (10). Among those in natural resource management and planning departments, 93% and 95%, respectively, agree or strongly agree.’

As Figure 10 shows, the vast majority of respondents believe the impacts of SLR will be significant, with nearly 20% expecting them to be catastrophic. Yet when the results are broken down by State and County respondents, clear differences emerge. Among State respondents, 30% expect catastrophic impacts, and 67% predict significant effects. In contrast, 17% of County respondents anticipate catastrophic impacts, while 64% foresee significant ones; 12% believe the impacts will be minimal, and 8% are unsure. Across departments, 91% of administrative employees, 90% in natural resource management, and 88% in planning departments expect serious or catastrophic consequences.

5. Expected Consequences of SLR

We next asked about civil servants’ views on the expected consequences of SLR in Hawai‘i over the next 50 years, assuming no mitigation efforts are taken. The following figures highlight respondents’ concerns about environmental, socioeconomic, and infrastructure impacts, as well as how SLR may affect their own work. The results are broken down to examine differences between State and County respondents, as well as across various government departments, revealing a range of perspectives on the severity and likelihood of SLR’s consequences for Hawai‘i’s environment, economy, and public services.

Figure 11 shows civil servants’ views on the likelihood of various consequences of SLR in Hawai‘i over the next 50 years if no mitigation actions are taken. Coastal erosion (85%) and beach loss (84%) are seen as virtually certain or very likely, followed by more frequent flooding in coastal areas (77%) and destruction of natural habitats (65%). Loss of natural resources and groundwater inundation are also significant concerns, while contamination of freshwater sources is perceived as less certain. These responses reflect a strong recognition of the severe environmental impacts of SLR, reinforcing the need for increased resource allocation and interagency collaboration.

The results in Figure 12 highlight significant concerns about the effects on property, insurance, and economic inequality, as well as the broader social and cultural ramifications. The most prominent concern is the damage or loss of coastal properties, both public and private, with 60% of respondents believing this outcome is “virtually certain” and another 25% considering it “very likely.” Alongside property damage, insurance premiums are expected to rise substantially, with 58% of respondents considering this outcome virtually certain, indicating that economic pressures on homeowners and businesses will increase as climate risks grow.

Other socioeconomic effects, such as the loss of recreational spaces and insurance companies stopping coverage due to high risk, are also seen as highly probable. Nearly 70% of the respondents believe that sea level rise is virtually certain or very likely to reduce recreational opportunities and lead to further restrictions on insurance coverage, which could further limit economic growth and quality of life in coastal areas. Additionally, there are significant concerns about disruptions to tourism, particularly in major tourist areas, where 37% see these as virtually certain and 30% believe they are very likely, suggesting a strong consensus among civil servants that SLR will significantly harm Hawai‘i’s critical tourism industry.

The survey also reveals substantial concerns about socioeconomic inequality and public health issues related to coastal flooding, both of which are viewed as likely outcomes of sea level rise. A third of our respondents view rising inequality as virtually certain, highlighting fears that the economic and social impacts of climate change will disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. The loss of important cultural sites is another major concern, with 91% of respondents viewing this as likely or virtually certain, highlighting the potential for sea level rise to damage Hawai‘i’s cultural heritage.  Respondents were less certain about the effects of SLR on specific social programs like Medicaid and Social Security, but about half felt that SLR was likely to increase pressure on these programs.

Figure 13 shows the perceived likelihood of various infrastructure consequences in Hawai‘i over the next 50 years due to sea level rise, assuming no action is taken to mitigate its effects. The responding civil servants were asked to rate the likelihood of impacts such as the loss of coastal roads, disruptions to transportation, utilities, and emergency services. The results highlight a strong consensus around the inevitability of certain impacts, particularly those related to coastal infrastructure.

The most striking takeaway is the overwhelming concern about the damage or loss of coastal roads, with 57% of respondents deeming this outcome “virtually certain” and an additional 22% rating it as “very likely.” This indicates a broad expectation that coastal infrastructure will be significantly affected by rising sea levels. Similarly, disruptions to transportation are also seen as highly probable, with 37% of respondents considering it “virtually certain” and 21% believing it to be “very likely.” These results suggest that key transportation corridors, particularly along the coasts, are viewed as extremely vulnerable to sea level rise.

Other major concerns include the frequent disruption of wastewater infrastructure, where 33% of respondents consider this outcome virtually certain, and disruptions to municipal utilities and commercial ports, both seen as likely or very likely by a significant portion of the respondents. This suggests that respondents anticipate widespread effects on critical urban services, which would have cascading consequences for the day-to-day functioning of cities and towns across the State.

At the lower end of the spectrum, disruptions to military installations and energy imports are seen as somewhat less certain, with smaller percentages of respondents indicating that these outcomes are virtually certain. However, even in these categories, a notable share of respondents still considers them likely to occur if no mitigation actions are taken. Overall, the survey reflects a widespread belief that sea level rise will have a profound impact on Hawai‘i’s infrastructure, particularly in coastal and urban areas, unless proactive steps are taken to address it.

When asked whether SLR will impact their work (Table 4), 56% of State and 40% of County respondents indicated that SLR is already affecting their work and they have begun preparing. But 22% of State and 15% of County respondents are unsure how to prepare for the impacts of SLR, while 11% of State and 16% of County respondents see the potential impact but have not been authorized by management to take action. Additionally, 11% of State and 9% of County respondents do not believe SLR will affect their work, while 12% of County respondents have never considered its impact, and 7% will wait for direction before preparing.

“Other answers” included a range of comments, from those who think SLR is  not happening. (“it’s not rising”  and  “labeling SLR as the culprit is highly flawed and should be questioned”)  to those who indicated SLR is not directly impacting their work (some think it never will, while others say it’s not impacting their work yet, but that they are preparing for when it will); to those who think SLR may impact their commute to and from work; to those who can already see the direct impacts and are actively working to prepare; to those who can see the impacts by have not yet received guidance from a supervisor about how to prepare. 

These findings reveal both progress and gaps in SLR preparedness among civil servants. While many respondents are already taking steps to address the impacts of SLR, the uncertainty and lack of direction expressed by others highlight potential barriers to effective action. If civil servants are unsure how to prepare or are waiting for management approval, critical opportunities to mitigate SLR risks could be delayed, leading to greater long-term costs and vulnerabilities.

6. Perceived Preparedness

This section explores civil servants’ views on the readiness of both the State and the counties to address the impacts of SLR. The following figures provide insights into how different departments perceive the level of preparedness and the extent to which adaptation plans are in place, offering a critical perspective on the State’s and counties’ readiness to meet the challenges posed by rising sea levels.

Figure 14 shows that half of respondents believe the State of Hawai‘i is underprepared for the impacts of SLR, with 30% feeling the State is only somewhat prepared. Only 8% consider the State moderately prepared, and just 2% believe it is well prepared. Notably, none of the government employees in planning or emergency response departments felt the State was well-prepared. Around 43% of those in planning and 61% in natural resource management departments viewed the State as underprepared, with only about 32% in each category considering the State somewhat prepared. Similarly, 40% of emergency response and 64% of administrative department respondents believed the State was underprepared to address SLR.

Similarly, as Figure 16 shows, most respondents view Hawai‘i’s counties as underprepared or only somewhat prepared for SLR, and many civil servants are unaware of the counties’ specific adaptation plans. A large portion of respondents indicated they “don’t know” how prepared the counties are. In natural resource management departments, 37% believe Hawai‘i County is underprepared, along with 47% for Honolulu County, 32% for Kauai County, and 37% for Maui County. Similar views are shared in planning departments, with 17% to 38% considering the counties underprepared. Across all counties, only 0% to 6% of respondents from these departments felt the counties were well-prepared for SLR.

7. Policy Preferences

We asked about civil servants’ perspectives on the government’s role and policy responses to SLR, with a particular focus on balancing the protection of natural resources and private property. Figures 17 through 20 illustrate varying levels of support for different strategies, from protecting public resources to implementing “managed retreat” approaches. The responses indicated broad backing for conservation-focused policies, infrastructure relocation, and regulatory changes, while also revealing concerns around equity and fairness when it comes to policies affecting private property owners. These findings demonstrate civil servants’ preferences for proactive, large-scale measures aimed at enhancing resilience to SLR.

Figure 17 reflects respondents’ views on the government’s role in protecting natural resources and private property from SLR. The vast majority (85%) of responding civil servants agree that the government has a responsibility to conserve and protect natural resources and land from SLR. However, opinions are split on whether the government should protect private coastal property, with 44% disagreeing and 31% agreeing. The most polarizing policy is whether coastal property owners should be allowed to protect their property even if it harms public resources, with 65% disagreeing, including 42% strongly disagreeing, and only 19% in agreement.

The overwhelming support for government responsibility in protecting natural resources suggests strong backing for conservation-focused policies and regulations related to SLR. The clear opposition to allowing private property protection at the expense of public resources implies that civil servants strongly believe that public environmental protection should take precedence over individual property rights.

In terms of the various “adapt/accommodate” policy approaches to SLR, Figure 18 demonstrates that a strong majority (85%) support providing government funding to flood-proof or replace critical public infrastructure, with 54% strongly supporting this approach. Support is also high for revising permitting and building codes to include adaptation strategies like elevating buildings, with 79% in favor, though only 38% strongly support. However, there is less enthusiasm for providing financial incentives to property owners for elevating or flood-proofing their buildings, with only 50% expressing support, and a notable 35% opposing this approach. The high level of support for adapting building codes indicates that civil servants are open to regulatory changes that promote long-term resilience in construction. The lower rates of support for financial incentives to private property owners suggests some skepticism about using public funds for private benefits, especially when broader public resources are at stake.

When asked about “protect”-type policy responses (Figure 19), Hawai‘i’s civil servants expressed overwhelming support for restoring and promoting living shorelines like coral reefs, wetlands, and sand dunes, with 86% in favor, including 67% who strongly support this approach. In contrast, there is significant opposition to the use of government spending on structural barriers like walls to hold back flood waters, with only 47% supporting and 28% opposing the implementation of this policy.

As shown in Figure 20, the civil servants in our sample expressed varying levels of support for “managed retreat” strategies in response to SLR. The strongest backing was for government-funded relocation of critical infrastructure (82%), revisions to zoning and land-use regulations (83%), and policies encouraging inland development (74%). Additionally, significant support emerged for enforcing Act 16, which prevents private property owners from reinforcing structures on beaches (72%). But there was notable opposition to using government funds to buy out homeowners, especially without consideration of socioeconomic status, with 54% opposed. Similarly, policies requiring seawall removal, encouraging homeowner relocation, and transferring development rights received mixed reactions.

Overall, the strong support for relocating infrastructure and implementing regulatory changes reflects a broad willingness to engage in large-scale, proactive measures that enhance resilience to SLR. Civil servants’ strong endorsement of providing incentives for inland development and Act 16 enforcement indicates widespread approval for policies that restrict coastal development, particularly those focused on safeguarding public resources. Conversely, the mixed views on homeowner buyouts and seawall removal suggest concerns about fairness, equity, and the difficulties of forced relocations.

8. Prioritization of SLR and Potential Obstacles

This section examines how SLR adaptation is prioritized across State and County agencies, as well as the main obstacles to planning and implementing SLR policies. As Figure 21 shows, despite widespread concern among civil servants about the severity and current impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on Hawai‘i, only 7% of respondents reported that their agency, department, or office prioritizes SLR as its top concern. Additionally, 30% believe it ranks high on their agency’s list of priorities, while 28% say it falls in the middle. In contrast, 23% think SLR is a low priority for their agency, and 12% place it at the very bottom.

The priority given to SLR appears to be closely tied to the primary mandate of the department in which respondents work. For example, only about 9% of those in administrative departments report that SLR is a top priority, compared to 30% of respondents in natural resource management departments and 35% in planning-related departments. Conversely, 27% of respondents in administrative departments and 40% in emergency response departments say that SLR is at the bottom of their priority list, compared to just 3% and 9% of those working in natural resource management and planning departments, respectively.

This divergence in departmental priorities also shapes the obstacles faced in planning and designing SLR policies. Table 4 highlights key obstacles to planning and designing SLR policies, as identified by both State and County respondents. Both groups cite insufficient staff resources for analyzing or assessing information, a lack of political will, and insufficient funding to implement plans as their top challenges. In addition to these shared concerns, State respondents specifically emphasize a lack of funding for plan preparation, while County respondents point to challenges related to inter-agency coordination and coordination with external stakeholders as significant obstacles.

As shown in Table 5, State and County civil servants reported a high degree of consensus on the top five obstacles they face in implementing SLR policies. The obstacles identified by both groups were largely the same, with one exception: State respondents ranked “lack of existing regulatory tools to implement a policy” as their fourth most significant challenge, while this obstacle did not appear in the County respondents’ top five. Otherwise, the top obstacles were similar for both groups, reflecting shared challenges in policy implementation.

Overall, these results show that while civil servants across State and County agencies recognize the seriousness of SLR, its prioritization varies significantly depending on the department’s focus. Natural resource management and planning departments tend to place a higher priority on SLR compared to administrative and emergency response departments. Common obstacles to addressing SLR include insufficient staff resources, lack of political will, and funding shortages.

9. Discussion and Recommendations

The results of this survey align closely with a 2023 survey of Hawai‘i’s legislators and county council members (Loeb and Moore 2023).  Much like elected officials, an overwhelming majority (92%) of civil servants acknowledge that sea level rise (SLR) is occurring, and 84% agree that it is happening now. This consensus across both elected officials and agency staff suggests strong governmental alignment, which should facilitate the advancement of SLR-related policies in Hawai‘i.

Civil servants are highly aware of the severe environmental and socio-economic impacts of SLR. An overwhelming majority (83%) believe the effects on Hawai‘i’s residents in the next 50 years will be significant or catastrophic. Coastal erosion, beach loss, and the destruction of natural habitats are at the forefront of their concerns. There is also a high degree of certainty regarding the socio-economic repercussions of SLR: 91% expect insurance premiums to rise, 81% anticipate insurers pulling out of high-risk areas, and 83% predict damage to both public and private coastal properties. Furthermore, 82% foresee the loss of coastal recreational sites central to local culture, while 81% expect disruptions to tourism, a vital component of the State’s economy. Other concerns include the loss of cultural sites (79%), increased public health issues (71%), and declines in government revenues (71%). More than half of respondents also anticipate migration shifts and increased socioeconomic inequity as a result of SLR.

Civil servants are also alarmed by SLR’s potential impact on infrastructure. Significant disruptions to transportation, utilities, and wastewater systems are expected, with many foreseeing public health risks from cesspool leakage and the loss of agricultural land and military installations.

Perceived Preparedness

The results show major concerns about the State and counties’ preparedness for SLR, with many respondents believing their agencies are underprepared or lacking sufficient communication on progress. The high percentage of respondents unsure about their counties’ readiness suggests both a lack of preparation and insufficient information sharing. Improving transparency and coordination between counties and the State is crucial for effective SLR adaptation, and the State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, along with the Four County Sustainability Network, could help facilitate these efforts.

Level of Concern

A key finding is the disconnect between civil servants’ personal concerns about SLR and their perceptions of concern among colleagues and elected officials. While most respondents are concerned, many believe their peers are neutral or unconcerned, likely due to a lack of open discussion. Increasing communication about SLR could help foster a stronger sense of shared urgency and empower civil servants to act. Similarly, civil servants underestimate the concern of elected officials, despite a 2023 survey (Loeb and Moore 2023) showing that 94% of elected leaders are concerned or very concerned about SLR. This suggests there may be a communication gap within Hawai‘i’s government about the perceived urgency of implementing SLR adaptation policies.

Knowledge, Information Sources, and Frequency of Exposure

While most respondents believe they understand SLR, a significant knowledge gap persists, with over half attributing it to a combination of human and natural causes. This contrasts with the scientific consensus that SLR is primarily driven by human activities. Limited media exposure further compounds this gap, with only a small percentage of respondents hearing about SLR regularly. To address this, the State and counties could create more opportunities for civil servants to engage in discussions on SLR trends and data. Local news outlets, which are key sources of information for civil servants, could play a critical role in raising awareness by increasing their coverage of SLR.

Policy Preferences

Key findings about policy preferences related to SLR adaptation show strong support among civil servants for government responsibility in protecting natural resources. This reflects a clear public endorsement of conservation-focused policies and regulations aimed at mitigating SLR impacts. There is notable opposition to policies that prioritize private property protection at the expense of public resources, indicating that civil servants largely believe public environmental protection should take precedence over individual property rights.

Apart from the low support for coastal hardening and buyout programs for private property owners, respondents strongly favored a wide range of policies to address SLR. More than 80% support “adapt/accommodate” strategies, such as government funding to flood-proof or replace critical public infrastructure and revising building codes to enable adaptation. Nearly 90% support “protect” approaches, including the restoration and promotion of living shorelines like coral reefs, wetlands, and seaside vegetation. Respondents also showed strong backing for “managed retreat” policies, particularly those providing government funding to relocate critical infrastructure, revising zoning and setback laws, encouraging inland development, and enforcing Act 16, which limits private property owners from constructing hardening structures on beaches.

These findings indicate a significant opportunity to advance a wide array of policies to prepare Hawai‘i for SLR. But there is still a need for technical data and analysis on the costs and trade-offs associated with these policies before they can be adopted. The civil servants’ broad support for various SLR responses, along with similar findings from a survey of elected officials (Loeb and Moore 2023), presents an opening for the State and County to initiate targeted research into the costs, technical feasibility, and community input necessary for effective policy development.

Prioritization of SLR Policy and Obstacles

Despite the widespread concern, only 7% of respondents report that their agencies prioritize SLR as a top concern, with State-level respondents generally viewing it as a higher priority than their County-level peers. Both State and County respondents identified insufficient staff resources and funding as major obstacles to developing and implementing SLR policies. Lack of political will and coordination between agencies are also significant challenges.

Overall, this survey and the previous survey (Loeb & Moore, 2023) reveal a strong alignment between civil servants and elected officials in acknowledging the urgency of addressing SLR in Hawai‘i. While there is widespread concern about the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SLR, significant challenges remain in prioritizing, planning, and implementing effective adaptation policies. Key obstacles include insufficient staff and financial resources, lack of coordination between agencies, and gaps in communication about the seriousness of the issue. However, the broad support for a wide range of adaptation strategies presents a valuable opportunity for the State and counties to advance SLR policy. To capitalize on this momentum, coordinated efforts led by the State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, alongside targeted research and community engagement, will be essential to develop viable, long-term solutions.

Recommendations

• Enhance Climate Science Education: Targeted education initiatives may help to increase civil servants’ understanding of the role human-induced climate change plays in driving SLR. This will equip them with the knowledge needed to make well-informed policy decisions.
• Prioritize Funding and Resources: Addressing SLR requires adequate funding for both planning and implementation. The State and counties must develop new revenue streams to support long-term adaptation measures. Allocating resources for staffing, data analysis, and regulatory development will be critical for building the capacity needed to mitigate SLR risks.
• Promote Cross-Sector Communication: Hawai‘i’s civil servants need platforms for regular dialogue across agencies to discuss concerns, foster collaboration, and create a shared sense of urgency in addressing SLR.
• Improve Data Accessibility: There is a clear need to expand access to detailed climate projections, specialized data, and technical resources for all agencies. This will ensure that decision-makers have the tools necessary to address SLR challenges effectively.
• Strengthen Coordination Mechanisms: Hawai‘i civil servants may benefit from the development of more formal networks to institutionalize regular collaboration between State, County, and external stakeholders. This objective could be partially achieved by expanding the capacity of the State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission and the Four County Sustainability Network to ensure cohesive implementation of SLR strategies.

This survey has provided critical insights into Hawai‘i’s civil servants’ perspectives on SLR and the urgency for adaptation policies. The strong alignment between civil servants and elected officials on the reality and impacts of SLR presents a significant opportunity to advance comprehensive SLR policies. But several challenges remain, such as limited resources, lack of coordination, and gaps in communication. Addressing these obstacles through targeted education, improved data access, and strengthened interagency collaboration will be essential for creating effective, long-term solutions to mitigate the risks of SLR in Hawai‘i.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the many state and county civil servants who took the time to participate in this study.

We would like to thank the following for their thoughtful input into the design of the survey: the research teams at the UH Mānoa’s Institute for Sustainability and Resilience  (in particular, Makena Coffman); the Climate Resilience Collaborative (in particular, Colin Lee and Shellie Habel);  The Hawaiʻi Sea Grant program (Bradley Romine, Dolan Eversole, Courtney Owen, Amy Wirts); The City & County of Honolulu’s Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resiliency (CCSR) (Alexander Yee, Matthew Gonser); and The Pacific RISA Team (Victoria Keener, Zena Grecni).We would also like to thank the following state and county entities for their help in distributing the survey:  The State of Hawaiʻi Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission (Leah Laramee); the Department of Land and County Resources Management; The Four County Sustainability Network; CCSR; Maui County’s Department of Environmental Management; Hawaiʻi County Planning Department; and Kauaʻi County’s Office of Economic Development.

Appendix A: Survey Instrument

The full survey instrument is available on the website of the Institute for Sustainability and Resilience: https://manoa.hawaii.edu/isr/research/coastal-adaptation.php

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[1] The survey team received assistance distributing the survey widely among state and county agencies from personnel at the State Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission; the Department of Land and Natural Resources Management; the Four County Sustainability Network; City & County of Honolulu’s Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resiliency; Maui County’s Department of Environmental Management; Hawaiʻi County Planning Department; and Kauaʻi County’s Office of Economic Development.