UHERO
Peter Fuleky
Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Factor Models in the Presence of Common Trends
We analyze the forecasting performance of small mixed frequency factor models when the observed variables share stochastic trends. The indicators are observed at various frequencies…
Are lodging costs starting to tame the tourist boom?
The latest visitor highlights from the Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) show that both visitor arrivals and spending continued to increase through the first quarter of…
Latest Jobs Report Suggests Most Industries Recovering
Although slightly slower than in the second half of last year, conditions in the local job market continued to improve in the first quarter of…
Benchmark Revision of Non-Farm Payrolls
The annual benchmark revision of employment statistics from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that 4,000 more jobs were created in Hawaii over…
An Update on Inflation Expectations
Despite the consumer price index only growing by a moderate 2% over the 12 months ending in February, some investors are worried about the possibility…
Airlines Bet Big On Hawaii With 275,000 Additional Seats
The latest infrastructure report from the Hawaii Tourism Authority suggests that airlines are betting big on Hawaii and increasing airlift to the state. HTA expects the number…
Details of the Fiscal Cliff Deal
On New Year’s Day, almost 24 hours after the deadline had passed, members of Congress approved the American Taxpayer Relief Act that shielded the majority…
It’s the Economy, Stupid! (Or Is It?)
The popular media is frequently citing opinion polls that indicate preferences for one presidential candidate or another. Historically, analysts have found that economic conditions are…
Some Perspectives on Another Weak Employment Report
In April, US non-farm payroll jobs rose by a meager 115,000, and the unemployment rate fell slightly from 8.2% to 8.1% according to the Bureau of…