Nori Tarui

UHERO Research Fellow and Professor of Economics

Education

PhD Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota 2004
MA Economics, Keio University 1999
BA Economics, Keio University 1997
University of Wisconsin-Madison (exchange study) 1995-96

UHERO’s Nori Tarui giving the Keynote Speech at the Society for Environmental and Economic Studies 2020 Annual Conference (in Japanese).

Webinar: “How to Control Hawaii’s Coronavirus Epidemic and Bring Back the Economy: The Next Steps” (in Japanese, by Nori Tarui)

In collaboration with Maji Connection and the Consulate-General of Japan in Honolulu, UHERO’s Nori Tarui presents “How to Control Hawaii’s Coronavirus Epidemic and Bring Back …

Revenue Decoupling for Electric Utilities: Impacts on Prices and Welfare

Under traditional (cost-of-service) electric utility regulation, regulated utilities may not recover their fixed costs when their sales are lower than expected. Revenue decoupling (RD) is …

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Nori Tarui

Abstract

We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions over the two-year horizon 2020Q1-2021Q4. We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries associated with the international propagation of economic impact due to the virus spread. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output, exchange rates and equity prices, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries in 1984-2019. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made before and after the outbreak. We also simulate the effect of a relative price change in fossil fuels, due to global scale carbon pricing, on consumption and output. Our results predict fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. Our forecasts anticipate more robust growth for emerging than for advanced economies. The model predicts recovery to the pre-crisis levels even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. Our counterfactual carbon pricing scenario indicates that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts.