Ruben Juarez

UHERO Research Fellow and Assistant Professor of Economics

Education

Ph.D. Economics, Rice University. May 2008.
B.S. Mathematics, CIMAT-Universidad de Guanajuato. June 2004.

Research Interests

Dr. Juarez was granted the Ph.D. in Economics from Rice University in 2008 and has been a Professor of Economics and UHERO member since then. His main research interests include microeconomics, game theory and network economics, especially focused in the study and design of mechanisms and institutions for the efficient, incentive compatible and fair allocation of costs and resources in the presence of externalities (e.g., behaviors, coalitions, network effects, etc.), where he has publications at top field journals such as the Journal of Economic Theory, Games and Economics Behavior, Economic Theory and the International Journal of Game Theory.

UHERO partnering in Back on the Wave Oʻahu

The City and County of Honolulu and UHERO’s Ruben Juarez have developed a COVID-19 health and safety assessment for businesses in Oʻahu. Businesses, let your …

COVID-19 recovery study

UHERO Research Fellow Ruben Juarez and collaborators from the John A. Burns School of Medicine are examining the recovery and progression of individuals with COVID-19 …

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Nori Tarui

Abstract

We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions over the two-year horizon 2020Q1-2021Q4. We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries associated with the international propagation of economic impact due to the virus spread. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output, exchange rates and equity prices, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries in 1984-2019. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made before and after the outbreak. We also simulate the effect of a relative price change in fossil fuels, due to global scale carbon pricing, on consumption and output. Our results predict fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. Our forecasts anticipate more robust growth for emerging than for advanced economies. The model predicts recovery to the pre-crisis levels even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. Our counterfactual carbon pricing scenario indicates that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts.