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RECENT POSTS

Economic Impact of the Natural Energy Laboratory Hawaii Authority Tenant on the State of Hawaii in 2018

Economic Impact of the Natural Energy Laboratory Hawaii Authority Tenant on the State of Hawaii in 2018

Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

UHERO State Forecast Update: Already weak, Hawaii’s prospects look increasingly dicey

UHERO State Forecast Update: Already weak, Hawaii’s prospects look increasingly dicey

Wellbeing and Housing Report Supplement

Wellbeing and Housing Report Supplement

Wellbeing and Housing Report Supplement

Wellbeing and Housing Report Supplement


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Financial Benefits to a University of Hawaii Education

Each year in the State of Hawaii, over 11,000 graduating seniors must decide whether to attend college or join the workforce. This report estimates the potential rate of return for associate’s degrees, bachelor’s degrees, and post-graduate degrees from the University of Hawaii (UH) system using a standard approach.

UHERO Report

 


Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism

We evaluate the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. Our study provides a thorough introduction of these methods. We highlight the distinguishing features and limitations of each tool and evaluate their forecasting performance in two tourism-specific applications. The first uses monthly indicators to predict quarterly tourist arrivals to Hawaii; the second predicts quarterly labor income in the accommodations and food services sector. Our results indicate that compared to the exclusive use of low frequency aggregates, including timely intra-period data in the forecasting process results in significant gains in predictive accuracy. Anticipating growing popularity of these techniques among empirical analysts, we present practical implementation guidelines to facilitate their adoption.

Revised: Posted August 2, 2016

Published version: Ashley Hirashima, James Jones, Carl S. Bonham, Peter Fuleky, Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism, Annals of Tourism Research, Volume 63, 2017, Pages 191-202, ISSN 0160-7383, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.01.007.

Working Paper