Public Views on Sea Level Rise in Hawaiʻi: Results from a Statewide Survey

Executive Summary

This statewide survey of Hawaiʻi residents is the first systematic effort to measure public beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences related to sea level rise across all four counties. Conducted from July to August 2025 with a representative sample of 1,314 adults, the survey provides a baseline for understanding how Hawaiʻi residents view sea level rise and the kinds of adaptation strategies they are prepared to support.

The results show near-consensus that sea level rise is happening, widespread concern about its impacts, and strong support for immediate government action. At the same time, many residents report feeling poorly informed about sea level rise and a large majority doubt that the State and counties are prepared. Although residents support measures to reduce coastal hazard exposure and aid property owners’ protection or relocation, they are reluctant to pay higher taxes or fees for neighborhood-level protection. These attitudes create both opportunities and constraints for policymakers who must design and finance long-term adaptation strategies.

Knowledge and beliefs

Belief that sea level rise is occurring is nearly universal. Eighty-nine percent of Hawaiʻi’s residents think that sea level rise is happening.

Views about sea level rise vary by political party, with 97 percent of Democrats, 90 percent of Independents, and 80 percent of Republicans indicating that they think it is happening. Still, four in five Republicans report that they believe sea level rise is occurring, indicating that recognition of the issue extends well beyond Democratic respondents.

Most residents attribute sea level rise to both human and natural causes. About two thirds (66 percent) say it is caused by a combination of human activities and natural processes, while 21 percent attribute it mainly to human activity. By comparison, Yale University’s national climate change opinion survey indicates that only 58 percent of Americans think sea level rise is happening because of climate change (YPCCC, 2024).  

More Hawaiʻi residents are hearing about coastal erosion in the media than are hearing about sea level rise. Statewide, two thirds of residents say they have heard about coastal erosion in local media in the past 90 days, while only about 47 percent say they have heard about sea level rise.

Only 16 percent of residents say they feel well-informed about sea level rise.  

Risk Perceptions

Concern about future harm is widespread. Eighty-three percent of Hawaiʻi residents believe that the impacts of sea level rise will be catastrophic in the next fifty years.

A large majority of Hawaiʻi residents (89 percent) say sea level rise is likely to cause harm to Hawaiʻi now or sometime in the future. Nearly half of residents statewide (49 percent) think sea level rise is already impacting people in Hawaiʻi, while an additional 19 percent expect impacts to begin within the next ten years.

Residents also anticipate direct personal effects. One in five Hawaiʻi residents (20 percent) report that they or their families have already been impacted by sea level rise; 32 percent say it will impact them personally within the next ten years; and 20 percent expect to be impacted in the next 10-25 years.

Costs are already visible for many households. More than a third of residents statewide (39 percent) say they have experienced increased costs related to sea level rise or coastal flooding.

Perceived severity is high. Large majorities expect coastal erosion (90 percent) and beach loss (88 percent), loss of natural resources and cultural sites (85 percent), disruption to tourism areas (84 percent), and loss of viable agricultural land (77 percent) if no action is taken to address sea level rise.

Most residents view the State and counties as unprepared. About six in ten Hawaiʻi residents (63 percent) think the State is somewhat unprepared or not at all prepared for the impacts of sea level rise; only 8 percent say the State is well prepared. A majority of residents also view the counties as not well prepared.

Policy Preferences

Residents want state leaders to act now.  Nearly 90 percent say Hawaiʻi’s government and lawmakers should act immediately to prepare for sea level rise, and more than half of these residents express this view strongly.

There is strong support for limiting exposure to coastal hazards. Ninety percent of residents support restricting development in flood-prone areas; 83 percent of residents support inland development rather than coastal development; 82 percent of residents support the use of government funding to purchase coastal lands to maintain and restore natural areas.

Many residents are willing to relocate from high-risk areas if they receive fair compensation. Statewide, 81 percent say they would move away from an area identified as vulnerable to sea level rise-related flooding if offered fair compensation.

Residents support a robust government role in assisting coastal property owners.  Eighty-five percent of Hawaiʻi residents support allowing more individuals and businesses in Hawaiʻi to qualify for participation in a state-funded flood insurance program; 76 percent support providingtax breaks or other financial incentives to help owners in coastal areas elevate or flood-proof their buildings; and 71 percent support providing government funding to help property owners in flood-prone areas vacate their homes.

Residents are split on the topic of private sea walls. Slightly more than half of residents (54 percent) think coastal property owners should be able to construct sea walls, while 45 percent disagree.

Residents are divided about paying more to protect their neighborhoods. While many support adaptation policies, a majority are unwilling to pay higher taxes or fees for neighborhood-level protection. Statewide, 55 percent say they would not be willing to pay more, and 45 percent say they would.

There is strong public support for investment in education about sea level rise and its impacts. Ninety percent of respondents indicated support for public investment in sea level rise education and awareness.

Introduction

Hawaiʻi is among the most vulnerable US regions to sea level rise (SLR). With approximately 750 miles of coastline, the state’s entire population of 1.4 million resides within 30 miles of the coast, where most critical infrastructure and communities are located.

Sea level rise refers to the increase in the average height of the ocean’s surface. While ocean levels have fluctuated over the millennia, the rapid rise in sea level that we are now experiencing is being driven by human-caused climate change. Hawaiʻi has already seen 6 inches of SLR. According to a 2022 interagency sea level report (Sweet et al., 2022) led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, mean sea level around Honolulu will rise by between 0.6 and 1.5 feet  by 2050 and by 1.2 to 7.9 feet by 2100 relative to mean sea level in the year 2000. The Intermediate (mid-range) estimate is for a rise of 3.8 feet by 2100. With this rise, the number of high tide flood days each year will increase, reaching as many as 140 days per year by 2050, compared to 4 average annual observed flood days in 2010 and 9 days in 2020 (NOAA NOS, n.d.).

Chronic beach erosion and loss are already impacting communities, and further loss of beaches as SLR accelerates endangers Hawaiʻi’s tourism industry, coastal environments, and critical infrastructure. According to the Hawaiʻi Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaptation Report (2017), some 70 percent of Hawai‘i’s beaches and 6,500 structures around the state are threatened, which could result in 20,000 residents displaced from their homes. Chronic flooding is projected to make more than 25,800 acres of land unusable. Furthermore, the state estimates around 550 cultural sites, 38 miles of major roads, and at least $19 billion in assets will be exposed to chronic flooding (Hawai‘i Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission, 2017).

While the impacts of SLR in Hawaiʻi will likely pose serious threats to the state’s built environment, natural environment, and economy, no statewide effort has been made to better understand how the people of Hawaiʻi view this impending threat. An effective state strategy to address sea level risks and coastal hazards must consider the beliefs, risk perceptions, behaviors, and policy preferences of the Hawaiʻi public, who will play a central role in implementing this strategy through their support or opposition for specific plans and policies and their behaviors as residents, property owners, and community members.

To establish a baseline understanding of public attitudes, beliefs, awareness, policy support, and self-reported vulnerability to SLR, this report provides results from a statewide representative survey conducted in July–August, 2025, on these themes.

The survey builds on two earlier surveys of elected state lawmakers and government officials in Hawaiʻi (Loeb and Moore, 2023; Loeb, Moore, and Kandikuppa, 2026) concerning their views on SLR and related policy approaches. By gathering public perspectives, it provides important context for understanding where residents’ views differ from—or align with—those of their elected representatives and the regulatory and implementation personnel who shape policy responses.

Survey Methodology

This statewide survey of Hawaiʻi residents was co-designed by researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi and Pacific RISA and conducted by the polling firm FINN Partners (Anthology Research) between July 22 and August 30 of 2025 after receiving approval from the University of Hawaiʻi Institutional Review Board. A total of 1,314 completed responses were collected, representing a demographically weighted sample of adult residents across all counties. A detailed discussion of the survey methodology, including sampling procedures, response rate, weighting strategy, and study limitations, is provided in Appendix A. The full survey instrument is provided in Appendix B.

Results

1. Beliefs, Knowledge, Issue Exposure

The survey asked Hawaiʻi residents a series of questions about their beliefs and knowledge regarding SLR, including whether they think it is happening, what they see as its primary causes, how well informed they feel about the issue, and how frequently they encounter related coverage in local media. Together, these measures provide a baseline assessment of public awareness and interpretation of SLR, as well as the informational context in which attitudes toward adaptation and policy responses are formed.

1.1 Most Hawaiʻi residents believe that sea level rise is happening 

In Hawaiʻi, the vast majority of residents believe that SLR is occurring. Nearly nine in ten respondents (89 percent) report that SLR is happening, while only 11 percent say that it is not.

While no directly comparable national survey results on SLR are available, Yale University’s most recent Climate Change in the American Mind survey finds that 72 percent of Americans believe global warming is happening (Leiserowitz et al., 2026). The Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2024 estimate that 78 percent of Hawaiʻi residents share this belief, and that 66 percent agree that “Global warming is affecting rising sea levels” (YPCCC, 2024; Howe et al., 2015). These figures are notably lower than the level of belief that SLR is happening observed in this statewide survey.

The share of residents who say that SLR is happening is high across all four counties, with the highest level in Maui County, where 92 percent report that SLR is occurring.

1.2 Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents believe sea level rise is happening

1.3  Majorities of both liberals and conservatives think sea level rise is happening

To better understand variation in public attitudes, the survey examined political ideology in addition to party identification. We find that large majorities of both liberal residents (96 percent) and conservative residents (84 percent) agree that SLR is happening, though liberals are 12 percentage points more likely than conservatives to hold this view. 

1.4. About two thirds of Hawaiʻi residents think sea level rise is caused by a combination of human activities and natural processes

When asked about the main cause of sea-level rise, 66 percent of Hawaiʻi residents say it is due to “a combination of human activity and natural processes,” while 21 percent attribute it primarily to “human activity.” Only 11 percent of Hawaiʻi residents think that SLR is due only to “natural processes,” while 2 percent say “something else.” Hawaiʻi County and Honolulu closely resemble the state as a whole in their beliefs about the cause of SLR, while Kauaʻi and Maui County residents have a greater belief that human activity is the main cause of SLR.

1.5 Only 16 percent of residents say they feel well-informed about sea level rise

When asked how well informed they feel about SLR, only 16 percent of Hawaiʻi residents say they feel well informed. About two thirds of respondents say they feel either “moderately informed” (33 percent) or “somewhat informed” (33 percent), while another 18 percent indicate that they do not feel well informed. Honolulu has the lowest proportion of residents reporting they feel well informed (11 percent), compared to Hawaiʻi County (23 percent), Kauaʻi (24 percent), and Maui County (28 percent).

1.6 More Hawaiʻi residents are hearing about coastal erosion in the media than are hearing about sea level rise

The survey asked a pair of questions about media exposure. Statewide, nearly half of residents (47 percent) say they have heard about SLR in local media (TV, social media, newspaper) in the past 90 days. By comparison, two thirds of residents say they have encountered media coverage about coastal erosion during the same period.

At the county level, slightly less than half of residents in Hawaiʻi County (48 percent), Honolulu      (45 percent) and Kauaʻi (44 percent) had heard about SLR in local media in the past 90 days, while a majority (61 percent) in Maui County reported hearing about SLR. Similar to the state-level results, residents in each county had higher exposure to coastal erosion in local media, with Maui residents reporting the highest level of exposure (74 percent of residents had heard about coastal erosion in the past 90 days) and Honolulu the lowest (63 percent of residents had heard about coastal erosion in the past 90 days).

2. Risk Perceptions

The survey asked a series of questions to gauge community risk perceptions about SLR, including questions about expected impacts, and their timing and severity, and preparedness.

2.1 Most Hawaiʻi residents (89 percent) say sea level rise is likely to cause harm to Hawaiʻi now or sometime in the future

Concern about SLR is widespread. A majority of residents (56 percent) say harm to Hawaiʻi is very likely, and another 33 percent say it is somewhat likely, leaving only 11 percent who view harm as not very or not at all likely.

Most residents in each county say SLR is likely to cause harm to Hawaiʻi now or in the future, with somewhat larger majorities in Kauaʻi and Maui saying harm is very likely. Maui has the highest percentage of residents who believe sea level rise is at least somewhat likely to cause harm to Hawaiʻi now or in the future (92 percent compared with 89 percent statewide).

2.2 Nearly half of residents say sea level rise is already impacting people in Hawaiʻi

Nearly half (49 percent) of residents statewide think SLR is already impacting people in Hawaiʻi, while an additional 19 percent expect impacts to begin within the next ten years. Another 14 percent expect SLR to impact people in Hawaiʻi in more than ten years but less than 25 years. Taken together, 82 percent of residents anticipate SLR having local impacts within the next 25 years. Small proportions of residents believe the impacts will arrive in more than 25 years but less than 50 (8 percent), in more than 50 years (7 percent), and never (4 percent). 

Likewise, majorities in each of the counties say SLR is already impacting people in Hawaiʻi or will within ten years. Maui County has the most residents who believe SLR is already impacting people (52 percent) or will within the next 10 years (23 percent), 75 percent in all.

2.3 The majority of residents statewide think sea level rise has already damaged coastal roads, utilities, or buildings, or will within ten years

Asked when they think SLR will begin to cause serious damage to roads, utilities, or buildings in coastal areas, many Hawaiʻi residents say it already has (47 percent) or will within ten years (23 percent). Another 13 percent believe SLR will cause serious damage to infrastructure in more than ten years but less than 25 years.

Maui residents are much more likely than residents of other counties to think SLR has seriously damaged roads, utilities, or buildings, with 60 percent of residents responding that it already has caused damage.

2.4 A majority of Hawaiʻi residents say sea level rise will affect them or their family through flooding, higher insurance costs, or property loss within 25 years; 20 percent say it already has

When asked when they think they or their family will be personally affected by SLR (for example, through flooding, higher insurance costs, or property loss), 20 percent say they have already been impacted; 32 percent say it will impact them or their family within the next ten years; and another 20 percent say it will impact them in more than ten years but less than 25 years. Taken together, 72 percent of residents believe SLR will affect them or their family directly within 25 years. Compared with residents in other counties, Maui and Kauaʻi residents are more likely to say SLR has already affected them (31 and 27 percent, respectively).

2.5 A large majority (83 percent) of Hawaiʻi residents agree that the impacts of sea level rise will be catastrophic in the next 50 years

The survey examined perceptions of the severity of future impacts of SLR. Hawaiʻi residents express a high level of concern: 40 percent statewide strongly agree that the impacts of SLR will be catastrophic in the next 50 years, and another 43 percent somewhat agree with this statement. Agreement with this statement was similarly high across all counties, with agreement the highest in Maui and Kauaʻi where 85 percent and 86 percent, respectively, at least somewhat agree that the impacts of SLR will be catastrophic in the next five decades.

2.6 Large majorities of Hawaiʻi residents expect various impacts in the next 50 years, if no action is taken to mitigate sea level rise

When asked what specific kinds of impacts they expect in the next 50 years if no action is taken to mitigate SLR, residents indicated that they expect a broad range of impacts. The vast majority of residents expect coastal erosion (90 percent) and beach loss (88 percent). Additionally, 90 percent of residents say damage or loss of coastal properties is very or somewhat likely and foresee frequent coastal flooding (also 90 percent); large majorities expect loss or damage to natural resources (85 percent), loss or damage to important cultural sites or practices (85 percent), and loss of recreational spaces (85 percent); 84 percent predict disruption or losses for major tourism and resort areas; 77 percent foresee loss of viable agricultural land; and 76 percent expect public health issues to occur.

2.7 More than a third of residents statewide (39 percent) say they have experienced increased costs related to sea level rise or coastal flooding

The survey asked whether residents have experienced any increase in costs that they believe are related to SLR or coastal flooding, including costs related to housing, insurance, maintenance or repairs, floodproofing, business or job disruptions, or utility or infrastructure fees. Statewide, 61 percent of residents do not believe that they have incurred any such expenses from SLR, while 39 percent think they have.

At the county level, the proportion of residents who say, yes, they have experienced an increase in costs related to SLR or coastal flooding ranged from 34 percent in Honolulu to 52 percent in Maui County. 

2.8 About six in ten Hawaiʻi residents (63 percent) think the state is unprepared for the impacts of sea level rise; only 8 percent say it is well prepared

When asked how prepared they think the State of Hawaiʻi is for the impacts of SLR, a majority of Hawaiʻi residents think it is either not at all prepared (20 percent) or somewhat unprepared (43 percent), while 29 percent think the state is only somewhat prepared. Only 8 percent think the state is well prepared.

Hawaiʻi County residents were the most likely to think the state is at least somewhat prepared (54 percent), while Kauaʻi and Maui residents were less likely to agree that the state is at least somewhat prepared (44 percent and 41 percent, respectively). Just 32 percent of Honolulu residents think the state is at least somewhat prepared for the impacts of SLR.

2.9 Similarly, a minority of residents think each of the counties are well prepared

When asked how well they think the counties are prepared, the majority of residents also said they think the counties are not well prepared. Only 18 percent say Maui County is well prepared, compared with 16 percent for Kauaʻi County, 13 percent for Hawaiʻi County, and 6 percent for the City and County of Honolulu. Among the four counties, Maui and Honolulu are viewed as the least prepared.

3. Policy Preferences

The survey asked residents how strongly they support or oppose a range of policy interventions to address SLR. These included decisions about permitting or limiting sea walls, as well as preferences for directing future development away from vulnerable coastal areas. The survey also examined views on how the government should assist property owners, whether by helping them remain in place, supporting relocation from high-risk zones, or investing in public education about risks and available adaptation options.

3.1 Residents express strong support for rapid action

Hawaiʻi residents express a strong sense of urgency about SLR. Eighty-eight percent say lawmakers should act immediately to prepare for its impacts, and more than half of these residents say they feel strongly about this need. The call for immediate action is consistent across all four counties. Even in Hawaiʻi County, where strong agreement is slightly lower at 47 percent, large majorities still support immediate action. Only a small minority of residents disagree with this position. Fewer than 12 percent in any county say they somewhat or strongly disagree that immediate action is needed.

3.2 No clear consensus on shoreline armoring

When asked whether coastal property owners should be allowed to protect their property from SLR even if doing so would negatively affect public resources and land, residents were divided. Slightly more than half (55 percent) agreed, while 46 percent disagreed. Strong views were less common. Eighteen percent strongly agreed and 16 percent strongly disagreed, indicating that most respondents expressed only moderate levels of agreement or disagreement about allowing sea walls in these circumstances.

When asked more specifically about their support for sea walls that protect private or public property and infrastructure, slightly more residents favored the use of sea walls to protect public assets. Some 79 percent of Hawaiʻi’s residents support the construction of sea walls that protect public property and infrastructure, while 62 percent support the use of sea walls to protect private property. These results were consistent across the counties, with somewhat stronger opposition to sea walls in Kaua‘i.

3.3 A large majority support restricting development in flood-prone areas

Support for limiting new development in areas vulnerable to flooding is both widespread and consistent across the state. At the statewide level, 49 percent of residents say they strongly support restricting development in these areas and another 41 percent say they somewhat support it. Only a small minority express opposition.

County-level results show the same pattern of broad agreement. Kauaʻi has the highest share of residents who strongly support restrictions, at 61 percent, followed by Maui County at 55 percent and Honolulu at 49 percent. Opposition is low in every county, with fewer than ten percent of residents in any county saying they somewhat or strongly oppose restrictions. These results indicate that directing future development away from high-risk coastal zones aligns with public preferences across all islands and reflects one of the most widely supported adaptation strategies in the survey.

3.4 Public preference for inland growth over coastal expansion

Residents largely favor directing new development away from vulnerable coastal areas and toward inland locations. Statewide, 36 percent say they strongly support prioritizing inland development and another 47 percent say they somewhat support it. Only a small share express opposition, with 15 percent somewhat opposed and about 3 percent strongly opposed.

Support is strong across all counties, although the intensity varies. Kauaʻi has the highest share of residents who strongly support inland development at 51 percent, followed by Maui at 46 percent. In each county, clear majorities prefer shifting future growth inland rather than continuing to develop in coastal zones that face higher long-term risk.

3.5 Strong public backing for acquiring coastal lands for conservation

Hawaiʻi residents express clear support for directing public funds toward the acquisition of coastal lands for conservation and restoration. Thirty-eight percent strongly support this approach and another 44 percent somewhat support it, indicating broad agreement with using public resources to protect natural buffers. Opposition remains limited, with only 6 percent strongly opposed and 12 percent somewhat opposed. Patterns are consistent across counties, and support is highest in Maui, suggesting that land acquisition may be one of the least contentious components of a statewide adaptation strategy.

3.6 Public support for an active government role in assisting coastal property owners

Residents express clear support for government involvement in protecting coastal properties affected by sea-level rise. About two thirds (67 percent) strongly or somewhat agree that the government should protect private coastal property, while one third (34 percent) strongly or somewhat disagree. Support for government assistance is evident across counties, indicating that many residents view some level of public involvement as appropriate when coastal properties face increasing risk. In addition, 72 percent of residents support using public funds to help property owners in flood-prone areas vacate their homes, while 29 percent oppose offering this type of financial assistance.

The survey results indicate broad support for a range of financial tools to assist coastal property owners. Residents favor providing tax breaks or other incentives to help owners elevate or flood-proof their buildings, with 30 percent strongly supporting and 45 percent somewhat supporting this approach. Opposition is limited (19 percent somewhat opposed and 6 percent strongly opposed), and support is consistently high across counties, reaching its strongest levels in Kauaʻi. Residents also support expanding eligibility for a state-funded flood insurance program. Statewide, 35 percent strongly support and 50 percent somewhat support allowing more individuals and businesses to participate, while only 12 percent somewhat oppose and 3 percent strongly oppose the idea. County-level patterns are similar, with Kauaʻi and Maui counties showing the highest levels of strong support.

Overall, these results show that residents support a flexible approach to assisting property owners who face growing coastal risk. Support extends across both protection and transition strategies, indicating that the public is receptive to policies that help owners make their buildings more flood resistant and to policies that help them leave high-risk areas when necessary. The strong backing for financial assistance and incentives also suggests that residents view government involvement as an essential part of managing the impacts of SLR on coastal communities.

3.7. Residents are divided about paying more to protect their neighborhoods from sea level rise

Residents express divided views about paying higher taxes or fees to fund neighborhood-level protection from SLR. Statewide, a majority of residents say they would not be willing to pay more, with 55 percent opposed and 45 percent willing. County patterns follow a similar distribution. Willingness to pay is highest in Maui County, where 53 percent say yes, and lowest in Honolulu, where 43 percent say yes. These findings indicate that although some residents are open to contributing financially to local protection projects, more than half remain reluctant to take on additional costs.

Despite the reluctance many residents express about paying higher taxes or fees for neighborhood protection projects, a large majority say they would be willing to relocate from high-risk areas if offered fair compensation. Statewide, 81 percent indicate they would move away from areas identified as vulnerable to SLR–related flooding, and only 19 percent say they would not. This willingness is consistent across all counties, with support highest in Hawaiʻi County at 89 percent and lowest in Honolulu and Kauaʻi, where 80 percent say they would move. 

3.9. Public backing for expanded education on sea level rise impacts

Survey respondents express extremely strong support for investing in public education about SLR and the steps individuals can take to prepare. Statewide, nearly half of residents (48 percent) strongly support this investment and another 42 percent somewhat support it. Only 6 percent somewhat oppose and 4 percent strongly oppose this effort. The pattern is consistent across all counties, with the strongest support in Kauaʻi and Maui, where more than half of respondents express strong support. This level of agreement suggests that public education may be one of the least contentious components of a statewide adaptation strategy. High support across all counties indicates a broad readiness for expanded outreach, awareness campaigns, and community-based preparedness programs.

Policy Implications

The results of this statewide survey—the first of its kind in Hawai‘i—show a public that is highly aware of SLR and broadly aligned on the seriousness of the risks it poses. Belief that SLR is happening is nearly universal across the state and substantially higher than national levels of belief in climate change. This agreement spans political parties and ideological groups, suggesting that SLR remains a relatively non-polarized issue in Hawaiʻi. This provides an important opportunity for policymakers to advance adaptation planning from a position of broad public consensus.

Although most residents believe SLR is driven by both human and natural forces, relatively few report feeling well informed about the issue. Strong support for public education indicates clear opportunities for outreach and communication. Increasing public understanding of the scientific drivers of SLR and its projected impacts may help build confidence in long-term adaptation strategies and improve public readiness for future policy changes.

Hawai‘i residents view the risks associated with SLR as both immediate and severe. Nearly half of residents believe SLR is already affecting Hawaiʻi and majorities expect substantial harm within the next several decades. Respondents anticipate a wide range of consequences, including damage to coastal property, beaches, tourism areas, cultural sites, and natural resources. These results demonstrate the urgency of action. They also reflect the public’s expectation that, without meaningful intervention, SLR will impose broad social, economic, and environmental costs.

The most distinctive finding concerns adaptation preferences. Residents show strong support for a wide range of measures that restrict exposure to coastal hazards, including limiting new development in flood-prone areas and prioritizing inland growth. They also endorse both protective and transition-oriented strategies for property owners, including incentives for flood-proofing and funding for voluntary relocation. Dual support for these approaches is uncommon. Some evidence suggests strong resistance to retreat and a clear preference for protective measures, even in high-risk coastal areas (Abu et al, 2024, Coffman et al, 2025). Hawaiʻi’s willingness to consider both reflects a pragmatic recognition of physical limits in a geographically constrained island environment. This positions the state as a potential leader in adopting mixed adaptation strategies that combine place-based protection with strategic relocation.

At the same time, the public is far more hesitant to assume ongoing financial responsibility for neighborhood-level protection. Most do not support paying higher taxes or fees, even while expressing strong support for adaptation policies that would require substantial public investment. This gap between policy support and willingness to pay highlights a central governance challenge. The core political question is not whether Hawaiʻi residents recognize SLR or support action, but how the costs of long-term protection will ultimately be allocated.

Hawaiʻi’s SLR attitudes create a unique policy environment. Policymakers are not constrained by widespread skepticism or polarization, but instead face a public that broadly agrees on the risks and supports a wide range of adaptation measures. The central obstacle is not disbelief but the unresolved question of how to share the financial burdens of long-term protection, retreat, and land-use change.  Progress will depend on establishing credible cost-sharing frameworks, maintaining public trust, and engaging residents in clear discussions about tradeoffs and the limits of protection. Without such an approach, it will be difficult for Hawaiʻi to act at the pace and scale that SLR now demands.

Acknowledgements

Funding for the project provided by The Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University.

For assistance and valuable feedback, we would like to thank Leah Bremmer, Sarah Chang, Makena Coffman, Tanya Dreizin, Emma French, Brad Romine, Renee Setter, Chris Wada, Amy Wirts, and the State of Hawaiʻi Marine and Coastal Zone Advocacy Council.

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Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2024). Yale climate opinion maps 2024. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/

Appendix A: Survey Methodology

To ensure broad coverage of the Hawai‘i adult resident population and to reduce potential sources of bias, the survey was conducted using a mixed-mode approach that combined telephone interviewing and online data collection. Telephone interviewing helps reach populations that may be less likely to participate online, such as older adults or households with limited internet access, while online surveys provide access to individuals who are more comfortable responding digitally and may be less reachable by phone. By integrating both modes, the study maximizes inclusivity across demographic and geographic segments. The online sample was drawn from purchased lists compiled by third party sample providers and Anthology’s proprietary panel of Hawai‘i residents who have opted in to participate in research with us. The telephone sample was compiled using random digit dialing, publicly available lists and Anthology’s research panel. In addition to noting the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa as the survey sponsor, a $5 gratuity was offered to those who completed a survey to incentivize participation.

All participants were provided with informed consent prior to beginning the survey. By ensuring that the full consent document was available in a publicly accessible online location, and that each respondent was informed of their rights and protections prior to participation, the study followed standard ethical guidelines for research involving human subjects.

The survey collected a total of 1,314 responses. The response rate was 6.78 percent for telephone invitations (n=108) and 76.72 percent for online surveys (n=1,193).

Table 1

County	Target Sample Size	Completed Surveys Received	Margin of Error*	Telephone Surveys	Online Surveys
Honolulu	500	528	+/- 4.27	8	520
Hawaiʻi	300	311	+/- 5.56	7	304
Maui	250	290	+/- 5.75	47	243
Kauaʻi	150	172	+/- 7.47	46	126
Total	1,200	1,301	+/- 2.72	108	1,193

*Margins of error shown at the 95% confidence level

As surveys were completed and received, the data was then checked to meet data quality standards, including reviewing response time against the median, checking for straight-line responses and reviewing relevance of written responses. However, potential limitations of of the survey include the following:

Mode Effects –Although the questionnaire was designed to be consistent across telephone and online modes, differences in how questions are administered (spoken by an interviewer versus self-administered online) may influence how some respondents interpret or answer certain items.

Coverage Gaps – Telephone and online modes both have inherent coverage limitations. Households without reliable internet access may be underrepresented in the online sample, while individuals who primarily use digital platforms and are less likely to answer phone calls may be underrepresented in the telephone sample.

Nonresponse Bias –Despite multiple attempts to reach respondents and encourage participation, some demographic groups may be less likely to respond in either mode. Weighting adjustments help correct for these imbalances, but they cannot eliminate all potential bias.

Subgroup Estimates – While the survey design supports county-level and demographic subgroup analysis, sample sizes for some subgroups may be relatively small. Findings for these groups should be interpreted with caution, as margins of error are larger.

To account for the disproportionate sample design that allows for viewing results at the county level and nonresponse bias, weights were applied. To ensure that the statewide totals accurately reflect the population, results were weighted by the distribution of adult residents by ethnicity within each county. Weighting was conducted using Anthology Research’s proprietary weighting scheme, which balances representation across groups while preserving the integrity of county-level findings. This approach allows for both reliable county-level comparisons and accurate statewide estimates.

Table 2. Demographic Characteristics of Respondents

Demographic Type	% of Respondents
Gender
Female	43.1
Male	56.2
Other	0.6
Age
18-34	28.4
35-49	29.6
50-64	19.6
65+	22.4
Ethnicity
Caucasian	42.6
Hawaiian/part Hawaiian	30.3
Japanese	18.3
Filipino	14.6
Chinese	13.2
Spanish/Latino	6.4
African American	3.8
Korean	2.1
Samoan	1.8
Vietnamese	0.8
Chamorro/Guamanian	0.6
Chuukese	0.5
Marshallese	0.3
Mixed (not part Hawaiian)	4.8
Other	4.6
Prefer not to say	2.1
Born in Hawaiʻi?
Yes	63.6
No	36.4
Education Level
High school or less	20.9
Some college	17.7
Associate degree/ trade school	11.5
Bachelor’s degree	31.1
Advanced degree	18.8
Household Income Level (2024)
<$25,000	13.9
$25K-but less than $50K	15.6
$50K – but less than $75K	14
$75K but less than $100K	17.2
$100K but less than $150K	18
.$150K	14.8
Prefer not to say	6.4
Own or Rent Home
Rent	29.9
Own	58.3
Live rent free	7.9
Prefer not to say	3.9
Political Party
Strong Republican	13.1
Leaning Republican	11.9
Independent	34.6
Leaning Democrat	18.8
Strong Democrat	20.7
N/A	0.9
Ideology
Very Conservative	11.4
Somewhat Conservative	28.3
Somewhat Liberal	30.7
Very Liberal	16.8
N/A	12.7
Active Military (Self or Family)
Yes	10.2
No	89.8

Appendix B: Survey Instrument

The full survey instrument is available on the website of the Institute for Sustainability and Resilience: https://manoa.hawaii.edu/isr/research/coastal-adaptation.php