RESEARCH PAPERS ARE PRELIMINARY MATERIALS CIRCULATED TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL COMMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL AUTHORS. WHILE RESEARCH PAPERS BENEFIT FROM ACTIVE UHERO DISCUSSION, THEY HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FORMAL ACADEMIC PEER REVIEW.
We test whether new condominium construction generates vacancies in a lo-cal housing market through induced moves. Using detailed address-history mi-crodata, we track households who moved into a newly built 512-unit condo-minium tower in Honolulu, Hawai’i, which included both market-rate and income-restricted units. We identify prior addresses and follow vacancy chains across multiple rounds of moves. The vacated homes were substantially cheaper than the new units and spanned diverse locations and housing types. Income-restricted units produced fewer secondary vacancies, but those vacancies were concentrated at lower price points. Our results show that new condominium construction eases supply constraints and expands affordability in a local housing market, and the contrast between market-rate and income-restricted units has important implica-tions for inclusionary zoning policies.