UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom

Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in scope, we will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation. Maui rebuilding will add to already-buoyant construction, even as home affordability woes continue.