UHERO State Forecast Update: Already Weak, Hawaii’s Prospects Look Increasingly Dicey

Hawaii has been slowing for several years. That slowing has deepened in 2019 and extends to most corners of the economy. Two years of population decline have undercut demand in many sectors. Tourism, while still generating impressive visitor numbers, has seen spending slip, and many international markets have fallen back sharply. Add to that the impending shock to Oahu from the crackdown on home vacation rentals, and prospects for further tourism growth look poor. Construction remains a relative bright spot, although even here further softening of the Hawaii, US, and global economies would undercut growth. All told, the outlook is for Hawaii to tread water over the next few years, vulnerable to waves that could well pull us under.

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