UHERO State Forecast Update: Slowing Ongoing, Despite Arrivals Boom

17Q3 State Update thumbnail

The Hawaii economy is decelerating. Job growth this year will come in at less than 1%, down from nearly 2% just two years ago, the consequence of a flattening construction path and the natural effects of tightening labor markets. Despite surprisingly persistent gains, even the robust tourism industry will move to a lower growth trend as capacity constraints exert themselves. Overall, growth in the number of jobs will downshift to about a half-percent per year by the end of the decade.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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