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By Rachel Inafuku and Tim Halliday
Hawai‘i’s workforce has long faced a persistent challenge: high living costs combined with a concentration of low-wage, low-skill employment. The Good Jobs Hawai‘i (GJHI) program is a tuition-free, non-credit training program offered through the University of Hawai‘i Community Colleges. It was launched to help local residents gain skills and credentials in high-demand fields such as healthcare and skilled trades—areas generally associated with higher wages and more sustainable career opportunities. In this blog, we examine the short-term outcomes of individuals who participated in the program.
Our analysis, conducted in collaboration with Ben Castleman of the University of Virginia, provides preliminary insights into changes in real wages and employment outcomes among participants in the GJHI program. This is the first analysis to link non-credit student records from the University of Hawai‘i Community Colleges (UHCC) with wage data from the Data eXchange Partnership (DXP). Focusing on a relatively small sample from the program’s initial cohorts—those who enrolled between 2021 and 2023—we examined short-term wage outcomes and employment transitions. A second wave of data, expected later this year, will support deeper analysis. Although the current findings are descriptive and not intended to establish causality, they lay a foundation for more rigorous future research.
Our preliminary analysis shows that, two quarters after completing the program, completers experienced an average increase of $1,800 in real quarterly wages—equivalent to about $7,200 on an annualized basis—compared to $780 for non-completers. Because completers earned more on average before entering the program, their average real quarterly wages two quarters post-program were approximately $2,200 higher than those of non-completers. Among healthcare students, completers earned 19% more than non-completers two quarters after completion, increasing to 23% by the fourth quarter. In the skilled trades and clean energy sectors, the wage gap was even wider, with completers earning 35% more. However, these widening wage gaps between completers and non-completers may reflect pre-existing differences—such as motivation, background characteristics, or access to employment opportunities—rather than the direct effects of the program.
Average real quarterly wages over time by GJHI program completion status
To account for some of these pre-existing differences, we used a statistical method called propensity score matching (PSM). PSM pairs non-completers to completers with similar observable characteristics. In our analysis, we matched individuals based on gender, age, ethnicity, field of study, county of residence, and zip code level median household income. We then compared the wages of otherwise similar individuals, one who completed the program and one who did not. While this method controls for observable differences, it does not address unobserved factors such as motivation. So, our results only suggest a causal effect if those unobserved factors do not systematically differ between similar individuals.
Using the matched sample, we found that program completers earned about $1,300 more than comparable non-completers two quarters after exiting. To further test this finding, we ran regression models on the matched sample, controlling for various background characteristics and quarter-year fixed effects. After these adjustments, program completion was associated with a 12% increase in real quarterly wages, suggesting short-term improvements in earnings for completers.
Among the program completers, wage gains were geographically uneven. Those who took courses offered through UH Maui campus saw a 22% increase in earnings in the quarters following program completion—compared to 15–16% increases among those who took courses offered through the O‘ahu, Kaua‘i, and Hawai‘i Island campuses. Prior to the program, average quarterly earnings for O‘ahu campus participants were about $2,000 higher than those on the neighbor islands. After completion, however, average earnings for Maui campus completers approached those of their O‘ahu peers. Because the majority of students took courses through the campus in their county of residence—even when courses were delivered online—these figures likely reflect genuine geographic differences in wage outcomes among participants.
Real quarterly wage growth over time by island for program completers
The data also point to shifts in the types of jobs held by program completers. Prior to enrollment, 13% of completers worked in the accommodation and food services sector. Two quarters after completing the program, the share of completers working in that industry had decreased by a third. Meanwhile, employment rose in industries such as healthcare, public administration, construction, and professional, scientific, and technical services. For example, healthcare and social assistance employment increased from 22% of completers pre-program to 31% post-program. These shifts suggest that many program completers transitioned into industries more closely aligned with their training.
Employment shares by industry among GJHI completers, before and after program participation
Much of the post-program wage growth among completers was driven by participants who switched industries after training—particularly those in healthcare. Among those employed before the program, 38% transitioned to a different industry. Two quarters after completion, industry switchers saw average real quarterly wage gains three times greater than those who remained in the same industry. For healthcare students, the difference was even more striking—those who switched industries saw wage gains nearly five times greater than their peers who stayed in the same field, with average gains of roughly $3,500 compared to just $700 among non-switchers. Over half of these switchers entered healthcare industry jobs, with average quarterly wage increases approaching $4,000. Most gained employment in hospitals, outpatient care centers, or skilled nursing facilities. Among skilled trades and clean energy students who were working prior to enrollment, 40% changed industries after the program. Their real quarterly wages increased by $2,900 on average two quarters post-program—roughly 30% higher than those who remained in their original industry. The largest share of these switchers (30%) moved into the construction industry.
Distribution of real quarterly wage changes two quarters after program completion, by industry switcher status
These wage gains raise important questions: how do they compare to industry wage trends in the broader labor market and to outcomes from similar programs? Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) show that in 2023, median workers in the healthcare and construction sectors in Hawai‘i earned more than twice as much in quarterly wages as those employed in accommodation, food services, and retail trade. While the broader ACS workforce provides helpful context for understanding sector-based wage differentials, these figures are not directly comparable to the GJHI sample, which includes a more targeted group—individuals seeking training to enter high-demand fields. However, evaluations of other industry or occupation-focused workforce development programs have reported similar patterns to our analysis. Studies of initiatives like Project QUEST, Year Up United, and WorkAdvance show that program completers earn 14% to 30% more than their control group peers 6 to 7 years after schooling and were more likely to work in fields aligned with their training.
In addition to industry shifts among those already employed prior to the program, some students enrolled in GJHI without any prior employment records in the data—often because they had recently graduated from high school or college, were not employed, or were self-employed.1 Many of these individuals secured jobs after completing the program, often in fields aligned with their training. For example, half of healthcare completers entered the healthcare industry, while a third of skilled trades students found employment in the construction industry within two quarters of finishing the program. While specific occupations are not observable in the data, the patterns suggest that participants—particularly younger ones—accessed career opportunities in industries with stronger wage potential, often linked to their training.
Despite overall gains, wage disparities persisted across groups. On average, female completers earned about $4,000 less per quarter than their male counterparts, both before and after program completion. Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) participants also earned less than their Asian and “Other Ethnicity” peers. While all ethnic groups saw similar percentage increases in post-program wages, the absolute differences remained. Program completers at all education levels saw average real wage gains two quarters after completing the GJHI program. Those with a high school diploma or less saw the largest average increase—about $2,000 more than their pre-program earnings—with their mean wages catching up to those of participants who entered the program with associate degrees or apprenticeship training. These patterns suggest that program completion may offer economic opportunities similar to those typically associated with for-credit higher education, especially for individuals who may not have previously had access to such pathways.
While this blog provides valuable insights, several limitations should be kept in mind. The analysis reflects a relatively new program with a small sample size—fewer than 2,000 individuals—and a short follow-up period of typically two quarters after completion. As a result, it does not capture longer-term earnings trends. Also, students who enrolled in technology courses could not be analyzed in greater detail due to a limited sample size. Additionally, employment is categorized by industry rather than occupation, making it difficult to assess how closely participants’ post-program jobs align with their training. Finally, while program completers saw stronger short-term wage growth than non-completers, these estimates should be interpreted as causal only under certain assumptions. For example, if completers differed from non-completers in unobservable ways—such as motivation or health—then those factors could influence earnings independently of program completion.
Average real quarterly wages among program completers, by education level, before and after the GJHI program
Nonetheless, these early findings offer encouraging signals. The observed patterns suggest that GJHI may be associated with increased wages and shifts into higher-paying sectors—factors that align with broader goals of economic mobility. While the current analysis is preliminary, continued investment in data infrastructure will be critical for assessing the program’s long-term influence and understanding which components are most effective. Future research will include additional cohorts and apply more advanced statistical methods. As the initiative progresses, programs like GJHI have the potential to strengthen Hawai‘i’s economic resilience by creating pathways for residents to access higher-paying jobs.
[1] Individuals could also have no prior records of employment in the data if they were federal workers or were employed outside of the state of Hawai’i.