Carl Bonham
A Weak Employment Report for May
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the State Employment and Unemployment Summary today, and just like the national numbers for May, the numbers for Hawaii were disappointing. In fact, Hawaii had one of the largest month-to-month percentage declines. “Alaska experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decline in employment (-0.8 percent), followed by New Mexico (-0.6 percent) and Delaware […]
Read MoreQ & A: Europe’s slow moving train wreck
1. BY FRIDAY OF LAST WEEK, US STOCK’S HAD GIVEN UP ALL OF THEIR 2012 GAINS, BUT THEN THE MARKET RALLIED BY ALMOST 3% IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THIS WEEK. WHATS GOING ON? US stocks peaked this year in early April, but then weak economic news caught up with the market. A […]
Read MoreQ & A: Data Deluge!
1. THIS WAS A VERY BUSY WEEK FOR ECONOMIC NEWS. LETS START WITH THE HAWAII NEWS? Yesterday the Hawaii Tourism Authority released the April visitor numbers, and the string of strong visitor spending continues. April 2012 visitor spending of $1.17 billion was a record for the month of April, and after adjusting for seasonal variation […]
Read MoreQ & A: Positive Outlook on Hawaii Economy
1. UHERO RELEASED ITS SECOND QUARTER STATE FORECAST UPDATE—”VISITOR INDUSTRY STILL LEADING RECOVERY”. HOW STRONG IS THE VISITOR INDUSTRY RECOVER? In the first quarter of 2012, the total number of visitors to the state surged 8.5% above previous-year levels. Visitor days rose more than 9%, and spending is up more than 14%. We are forecasting […]
Read MoreQ & A: Unemployment Numbers
1. HAWAII’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEEMS TO ALWAYS BE BELOW THE US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. HOW LONG HAS THIS BEEN GOING ON? Since the mid-1970s. It’s below the US rate in good time and in bad times.Consider the February 2012 unemployment rates for Hawaii and the US: Hawaii: 6.4% US: 8.3%. A difference of 1.9%.. 2. SO […]
Read MoreChinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share
China’s national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not explained by precautionary motives, the national distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and movement in the dependent share in population. We estimate […]
Read MoreDisappointing Employment Report
The addition of 120,000 jobs in March was much less than expected. The consensus was for an increase of 201,000 jobs and for no change in the unemployment rate. From the US Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2012 Employment Situation: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.2 […]
Read MoreEmployment Report: US economy adds 227,000 jobs in February
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February 2012 Employment Situation this morning with another month of better than expected jobs numbers. The consensus was for an increase of 204,000 jobs and for no change in the unemployment rate in February. From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged […]
Read MoreQ & A: Da Budget, Compromise and Policy Failures
1. ANOTHER BUSY WEEK WITH LOT TO DISCUSS. ON MONDAY THE PRESIDENT RELEASED HIS BUDGET PROPOSAL, BY WEDNESDAY HAD PLENTY OF EVIDENCE OF CONTINUED EURO-AREA POLICY FAILURES, AND BY THURSDAY THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS APPEARED TO HAVE COMPROMISED ON THE PAYROLL TAX EXTENSION. SO MUCH NEWS SO LITTLE TIME! LETS START WITH THE BUDGET. The President’s […]
Read More