Insights

Blogs

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery:
The Weekly UHERO Economic Pulse

By Peter Fuleky COVID-19 has brought the longest period of economic expansion in modern history to an abrupt halt. The pace and magnitude of decline …

How Many Visitors Are Coming to Hawaii During this Pandemic? Making Sense of Hawaii’s Visitor Arrival Data

By James Mak To curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus, Hawaii imposed a 14-day travel quarantine requirement for trans-Pacific passengers arriving in Hawaii; the …

Survey results for woman owned businesses

By Philip Garboden and Isabelle Picciotto An update to the original survey results: https://uhero.hawaii.edu/survey-update-shows-widespread-hardship-for-local-businesses/ These tables divide our findings by whether or not the business …

Survey update shows widespread hardship for local businesses

By Philip Garboden and Isabelle Picciotto Additional results for woman owned businesses: https://uhero.hawaii.edu/survey-results-for-woman-owned-businesses/ Three months ago, UHERO released findings from its initial survey of businesses …

Aloha ‘Oe: Population Migration Between Hawaii and the U.S. Mainland

By James Mak and Justin Tyndall The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that, between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019, Hawaii’s population decreased by 4,721. …

News

UHERO wins national award for website

The University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) website has been nationally recognized for excellence by the premier professional organization for regional economics centers. The Association …

UHERO joins new effort to help stop the spread of COVID-19 in Hawai‘i

COVID Pau is a statewide multi-channel communications initiative designed to help stop the spread of COVID-19 in Hawai‘i, launched today. UHERO is a proud partner …

UHERO Survey on the Impacts of COVID-19 on Hawaii’s Rental Properties

UHERO has partnered with landlord and property management organizations to initiate a statewide data collection effort related to the impacts of the COVID-19 crises on …

UHERO’s Leah Bremer on Supporting real-world watershed management

UHERO’s Leah Bremer’s recent publication in Water Resources Research was featured in the Global Water Forum this week. She and a team of interdisciplinary colleagues …

UHERO’s Sumner La Croix on Island Focus

Briefs

Economic benefits of hydrologic services from watershed protection and restoration

Watershed protection and restoration provide a range of benefits including clean and ample water supplies, biodiversity, cultural connection to place, carbon sequestration, and a suite …

How Can the State Government Restore Fiscal Balance?

The impact of COVID-19 and the efforts taken to contain it have led to a rapid deterioration in the state’s short- and medium-term fiscal outlooks. …

Prevention of Travel-related Reintroduction of COVID-19 Infection in the State of Hawaii

This plan proposes to limit travel-related reintroduction of COVID-19 into Hawaii, averting further local transmission of the virus from travelers to the community. The plan …

Hawaii Tourism Authority and Sustainable Destination Management In Hawaii

The first rule in tourism development is that the wellbeing of destination residents must come first.  Unfortunately, the majority of Hawaii residents now think that tourism …

How to Control Hawaii’s Coronavirus Epidemic and Bring Back the Economy: The Next Steps

We spell out in detail how increased testing, comprehensive historical contact tracing, and isolation of exposed and infected individuals can lead to a rapid reduction …

Forecasts

UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in early stages of recovery, then a setback

Hawaii’s COVID-19 resurgence put the brakes on a very tentative economic recovery. The further delay of the visitor industry restart and renewed strict social distancing …

UHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen

The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our …

Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast …

Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii

The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy.  In the baseline forecast, …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism

Hawaii’s economy has been on an expected slowing trend for the past several years. While visitor arrivals racked up another record year in 2019, real …

Research and Reports

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from …

Estimating water demand using price differences of wastewater services

Many homes in Hawai‘i use cesspools and other on-site disposal systems (OSDS) instead of the municipal sewer system. Because bills combine water and waste-water services, …

How Will Climate Change Affect Water Demand? Evidence from Hawai‘i Microclimates

The effect that climate change will have on water resource sustainability is gaining international interest, particularly in regions where stocks are strained due to changing …

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

This report provides an analysis of the relative effectiveness of watershed conservation and restoration efforts in terms of groundwater recharge benefits in Hawaiʻi County Department …

Do natural disasters make sustainable growth impossible?

We consider the prospects for sustainable growth using expected utility models of optimal investment under threat from natural disasters. Adoption of a continuous time, stochastic …