UHERO
Forecasts
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: War brings more stormy weather to Hawaii
Hawaii’s economy must weather a new storm. The Iran war has sent oil prices surging, promising to raise inflation, increase travel costs, and slow the…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaii moves beyond recession, but slowly
By Carl S. Bonham, Byron Gangnes, Steven Bond-Smith, Peter Fuleky, Rachel Inafuku, Justin Tyndall, and Vanessa Pepino Hawaii’s economy is moving beyond last year’s mild…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Mild recession and weak recovery in 2026
Hawaii’s economy continues to edge into a mild recession. A tourism downturn is now underway, and job losses will occur in a number of sectors…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Deteriorating US outlook weighs on Hawaii prospects
Hawaii’s economic prospects remain poor. US trade policy is impacting key international visitor markets, and tariffs and uncertainty also weigh on the US economy. In…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Federal policies push Hawaii toward mild recession
Hawaii’s economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaii downturn
Hawaii’s economic growth is threatened by federal disruptions. While tax cuts may provide some stimulus this year, the Administration’s actions—including tariffs, mass deportations, and spending…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom
Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growth
Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to be a story of two economies: a Maui economy that will only gradually recover from its post-wildfire downturn, and the…
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth
Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will…