Forecasts
The UHERO Forecast Project provides Hawaii with analysis of economic, demographic, and business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaii downturn
Hawaii’s economic growth is threatened by federal disruptions. While tax cuts may provide some stimulus this year, the Administration’s actions—including tariffs, mass deportations, and spending cuts—will impose significant drag thereafter. The clearest near-term risk is federal layoffs, which will result in a loss of more than 2,000 local jobs, fully offsetting growth in construction and […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom
Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in scope, we will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation. Maui rebuilding will add to already-buoyant construction, even […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growth
Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to be a story of two economies: a Maui economy that will only gradually recover from its post-wildfire downturn, and the other counties as a group, whose visitor industries will continue to operate at a high level, and whose macroeconomic conditions will remain broadly favorable. Hawaii’s trend growth is now slower […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth
Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate. […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends
Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins
Hawaii’s economy has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and the glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key visitor markets will produce slower growth in 2024. But, absent a US recession, moderate gains will resume in 2025. While economic fallout from the Maui wildfires has been […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy
The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss on the affected communities, and sorrow among all of Hawaii’s residents. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future. In our first forecast since the fires, we assess the implications […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy
Recent developments bring both promise and peril for Hawaii. Tourism prospects are positive, despite the delayed Japanese market recovery. Construction activity will remain high, and inflation is receding rapidly, setting the stage for real income gains. On the flip side, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and liquidity problems sparked by recent bank failures threaten the […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaiʻi’s Soft Landing Still in the Cards
Our Hawaiʻi outlook continues to see economic slowing but no recession. While international tourism will continue to recover, domestic travel will soften as the US economy contracts later this year. Combined with high interest rates and prices, this will cause local growth to weaken through the first half of 2024. The cooling of inflation in […]
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