Forecast

UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.

Waikiki

UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: More Substantial Recovery in Sight

Hawaii is struggling to emerge from the COVID-19 downturn, but the recovery is poised to accelerate. Falling virus counts and vaccination progress set the stage …

Waikiki Beach (photo by little plant from Unsplash)

Annual Hawaii Forecast With Global Outlook: Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth

The Hawaii economy began to recover from the COVID-19 downturn by the end of the second quarter, but subsequent global waves of the pandemic have …

Waikiki

UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in early stages of recovery, then a setback

Hawaii’s COVID-19 resurgence put the brakes on a very tentative economic recovery. The further delay of the visitor industry restart and renewed strict social distancing …

Waikiki hotel hope

UHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen

The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our …

Waikiki

Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast …

Waikiki Beach

Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii

The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy.  In the baseline forecast, …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism

Hawaii’s economy has been on an expected slowing trend for the past several years. While visitor arrivals racked up another record year in 2019, real …

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Global Outlook: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter

Hawaii’s economy has entered a soft patch. Falling real visitor spending and a declining population have suppressed demand and halted growth in nonfarm payrolls. But …

Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

Hawaii construction activity continues at a healthy pace, with a modest pickup over the past year. New and pending projects, particularly high-rise residential building on …