Forecast

UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.

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UHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen

The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our …

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Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast …

Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii

The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy.  In the baseline forecast, …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism

Hawaii’s economy has been on an expected slowing trend for the past several years. While visitor arrivals racked up another record year in 2019, real …

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Global Outlook: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter

Hawaii’s economy has entered a soft patch. Falling real visitor spending and a declining population have suppressed demand and halted growth in nonfarm payrolls. But …

Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

Hawaii construction activity continues at a healthy pace, with a modest pickup over the past year. New and pending projects, particularly high-rise residential building on …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Already Weak, Hawaii’s Prospects Look Increasingly Dicey

Hawaii has been slowing for several years. That slowing has deepened in 2019 and extends to most corners of the economy. Two years of population …

UHERO County Forecast: Counties see synchronized slowing

Over the past year, there has been a broad slowing of growth across the four counties. To varying degrees, each has seen a falloff in …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Recent data confirm weaker growth

The past few months have brought more evidence of Hawaii slowing. The number of visitor days remains below last year’s peak, with more worrying signs …