Forecasts

UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.

UHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen

May 28, 2020

The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our sharpest and deepest economic contraction. But reopening has now commenced. The question is what that reopening will look like, how long it will take, and what the legacy of COVID-19 […]

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Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

March 30, 2020

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast update that we released three weeks ago. COVID-19 has spread to more and more countries, with disastrous impacts being seen in several major European economies, including Italy and Spain. Nationally, […]

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Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii

March 10, 2020

The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy.  In the baseline forecast, real visitor spending is expected to fall more than 10% this year and payroll jobs by 0.6%, with an attenuated recovery path. Alternative scenarios reflect a wide range of possible […]

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism

February 24, 2020

Hawaii’s economy has been on an expected slowing trend for the past several years. While visitor arrivals racked up another record year in 2019, real visitor spending fell last year as international spending languished. And now the coronavirus rears its ugly head. That represents a considerable—if as yet uncertain—risk to Hawaii’s economy in the year […]

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Annual Hawaii Forecast with Global Outlook: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter

December 20, 2019

Hawaii’s economy has entered a soft patch. Falling real visitor spending and a declining population have suppressed demand and halted growth in nonfarm payrolls. But the construction industry is holding up, and the number of visitor arrivals continues to grow. Following this year’s weakness, we expect some improvement in the external environment, which will help […]

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

October 4, 2019

Hawaii construction activity continues at a healthy pace, with a modest pickup over the past year. New and pending projects, particularly high-rise residential building on Oahu, will sustain construction employment near its current level for the next several years. Planned large-scale public sector projects will provide additional support. The primary risk to this forecast is […]

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Already Weak, Hawaii’s Prospects Look Increasingly Dicey

September 20, 2019

Hawaii has been slowing for several years. That slowing has deepened in 2019 and extends to most corners of the economy. Two years of population decline have undercut demand in many sectors. Tourism, while still generating impressive visitor numbers, has seen spending slip, and many international markets have fallen back sharply. Add to that the […]

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UHERO County Forecast: Counties see synchronized slowing

May 17, 2019

Over the past year, there has been a broad slowing of growth across the four counties. To varying degrees, each has seen a falloff in tourism activity and a slowing of employment growth in a number of sectors. Our near-term outlook for all counties remains muted, reflecting limits to growth in a still-tight labor market, […]

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Recent data confirm weaker growth

May 3, 2019

The past few months have brought more evidence of Hawaii slowing. The number of visitor days remains below last year’s peak, with more worrying signs from falling visitor spending. Job growth has largely stalled and income gains have receded. At best this represents a new normal for Hawaii.

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