Our Hawaii outlook continues to see economic slowing but no recession. While international tourism will continue to recover, domestic travel will soften as the US economy contracts later this year. Combined with high interest rates and prices, this will cause local growth to weaken through the first half of 2024. The cooling of inflation in Hawaii and nationally is welcome news. Whether it continues to recede will determine if the Fed pushes interest rates higher and for longer, which could result in a sharper slowdown here.
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham provides a summary of UHERO’s 2023 first quarter forecast report in this episode of “UHERO Focus”