Economy Articles

The Inter-regional Economic Impact of the Reduction in Tourism Following the Maui Wildfires

March 27, 2026

Hawai‘i’s economy, heavily specialized in tourism, is particularly vulnerable to shocks that disrupt tourism numbers. The Maui economy is even more dependent on tourists, and the extraordinary losses from the 2023 wildfires in Lahaina and Kula continue to dampen tourist numbers. To help understand the wider economic effects of the Maui wildfires, we quantify the […]

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Are People Leaving Hawaiʻi Because of High Prices, or Low Incomes?

March 19, 2026

By Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz This post focuses on a key theme from our comprehensive report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is Hawaiʻi being left behind?” For 23 of the past 25 years, more residents have left Hawaiʻi for the continent than have arrived. The most commonly cited reason for leaving Hawaiʻi is the […]

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The Lost Decade Never Ended in Hawaiʻi

March 5, 2026

By Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz This post focuses on a key theme from our comprehensive report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is Hawaiʻi being left behind?” In the early 1990s, Japan entered what became known as its “Lost Decade”—a long period of economic stagnation triggered by the collapse of a massive asset bubble. The […]

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UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaii moves beyond recession, but slowly

February 27, 2026

By Carl S. Bonham, Byron Gangnes, Steven Bond-Smith, Peter Fuleky, Rachel Inafuku, Justin Tyndall, and Vanessa Pepino Hawaii’s economy is moving beyond last year’s mild jobs recession, but the recovery will be gradual. After job losses tied to a tourism downturn and federal job cuts, payrolls have begun to edge upward. A resilient US economy […]

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Is Hawaiʻi Being Left Behind?

February 19, 2026

By Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz This post focuses on a key theme from our comprehensive report, “Beyond the Price of Paradise: Is Hawaiʻi being left behind?” Across the United States, a number of regions that once thrived have struggled to adapt as their economies have changed. These “left-behind places” share a common pattern: a […]

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Beyond the price of paradise: Is Hawai‘i being left behind?

February 1, 2026

By Steven Bond-Smith and Erich Schwartz Hawaiʻi is one of the most desirable—and most expensive—places to live in the world. But for 23 of the past 25 years, more residents have moved to other states than new arrivals have come to the islands. Rhetoric about being “priced out” is usually tied to expensive places where […]

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UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Mild recession and weak recovery in 2026

December 12, 2025

Hawaii’s economy continues to edge into a mild recession. A tourism downturn is now underway, and job losses will occur in a number of sectors in 2026. Inflation, while currently low, will rise next year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices. Construction remains the one consistently strong sector, supported by major new […]

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The Vulnerability of Hawai‘i’s Nonprofit Sector to Cuts in Federal Funding

October 2, 2025

Hawai‘i’s nonprofit sector is facing budget cuts and program changes that could disrupt essential services statewide. A new analysis by UHERO and the Hawai‘i Community Foundation provides an early warning system to identify grants, organizations, and subsectors at risk, allowing local leaders to prepare responses in advance. Key findings include: Although only a small share […]

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Estimating a CPI-based regional price parity index for US cities

September 29, 2025

We use metropolitan area Consumer Price indexes (CPI) and the US CPI to calculate a CPI-based Regional Price Parity index (CPI-based RPP) for the 29 US cities with CPIs published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This CPI-based RPP can be used (along with the US CPI) to make fair comparisons of economic performance in […]

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