Economy
Who Is Moving In and Out? Understanding Migration Trends in Hawai‘i
By JoonYup Park Migration is one of the most important forces shaping Hawai‘i’s population and economy. Yet, our understanding of who is moving in and out of the state is often limited or based on anecdote. A common narrative suggests that Hawai‘i is losing lifelong residents at an increasing pace—particularly younger generations who form the […]
Read MoreThe Economic Effects of Tariffs
James Roumasset* “Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, ‘on the one hand… on the other.’” President Harry Truman Updated 04/03/2025 Addendum on Reciprocal Tariffs Reciprocal tariffs may be a good idea, but they have been badly implemented. The case for reciprocal tariffs goes as follows. First, optimal tariff theory suggests that a […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Carl Bonham on Spotlight Now
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham appeared on Hawai‘i News Now’s Spotlight Now to discuss the impact of economic uncertainties and the outlook for Hawai‘i’s economy.
Read MoreUHERO’s Carl Bonham Discusses the State of the Economy
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham participated in a panel on Hawai‘i Public Radio to discuss the state of the economy and spoke with KITV’s Island News about the possibility of a recession.
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Federal cuts raise risk of Hawaii downturn
Hawaii’s economic growth is threatened by federal disruptions. While tax cuts may provide some stimulus this year, the Administration’s actions—including tariffs, mass deportations, and spending cuts—will impose significant drag thereafter. The clearest near-term risk is federal layoffs, which will result in a loss of more than 2,000 local jobs, fully offsetting growth in construction and […]
Read MoreInvestigating and Tackling Barriers and Needs for Small Business Success in Honolulu
This report examines the state of small businesses in Honolulu in 2024, using both quantitative data and qualitative insights to identify key needs, challenges, and opportunities for growth. A combination of a large-scale survey with 1,024 respondents and in-depth interview discussions with 11 small businesses provided a comprehensive view of the small business ecosystem.
Read MoreImmigration Economics
By Byron Gangnes Immigrants have always been an important part of America’s population. But for just as long there have been concerns about the impact of immigration on US society and the economy. The recent “surge” in unauthorized immigration at the Southern border and the candidacy of Donald Trump animated an already growing backlash against […]
Read MoreAging and Hawai‘i’s Generational Economy
Hawai‘i’s population is aging rapidly. By 2035 one in four people will be 65 or older according to the most recent projections. The purpose of this study is to assess how aging is affecting Hawai‘i’s economy and steps that could be taken to prepare for this unprecedented change in our population.
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom
Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in scope, we will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation. Maui rebuilding will add to already-buoyant construction, even […]
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