Economy
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Mild recession and weak recovery in 2026
Hawaii’s economy continues to edge into a mild recession. A tourism downturn is now underway, and job losses will occur in a number of sectors in 2026. Inflation, while currently low, will rise next year as tariffs continue to pass through to consumer prices. Construction remains the one consistently strong sector, supported by major new […]
Read MoreThe Vulnerability of Hawai‘i’s Nonprofit Sector to Cuts in Federal Funding
Hawai‘i’s nonprofit sector is facing budget cuts and program changes that could disrupt essential services statewide. A new analysis by UHERO and the Hawai‘i Community Foundation provides an early warning system to identify grants, organizations, and subsectors at risk, allowing local leaders to prepare responses in advance. Key findings include: Although only a small share […]
Read MoreEstimating a CPI-based regional price parity index for US cities
We use metropolitan area Consumer Price indexes (CPI) and the US CPI to calculate a CPI-based Regional Price Parity index (CPI-based RPP) for the 29 US cities with CPIs published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This CPI-based RPP can be used (along with the US CPI) to make fair comparisons of economic performance in […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Deteriorating US outlook weighs on Hawaii prospects
Hawaii’s economic prospects remain poor. US trade policy is impacting key international visitor markets, and tariffs and uncertainty also weigh on the US economy. In Hawaii, visitor numbers are down, job growth has stalled, and housing activity remains weak. Inflation will rise over the next year as tariffs feed through to consumer prices. Construction remains […]
Read MoreRecession watch: US data is softening—Is a downturn imminent?
By Byron Gangnes A little less than a year ago, I published a post explaining why the US economy was clearly NOT in a recession, despite contrary claims and the pain experienced by some families. Fast forward a year, and things look very different. Now there are signs that we may be flirting with a […]
Read MoreWhy Hawaiʻi Has Less Inequality Than You’d Think
By Rachel Inafuku Living in Hawaiʻi is expensive, and lower-income households struggle the most to make ends meet. Yet despite the high cost of living, Hawaiʻi consistently ranks among US states with relatively lower levels of income inequality. A standard measure of income inequality is the Gini coefficient, which measures how much incomes differ from […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Carl Bonham on Spotlight Now
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham joined Hawai‘i News Now’s Spotlight Now to discuss the 2025 second quarter forecast and how federal policies may impact Hawai‘i’s economy later this year.
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Federal policies push Hawaii toward mild recession
Hawaii’s economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a mild recession. Sharp increases in US import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs, and volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations, and worsening the business outlook—both nationally […]
Read MoreWho Is Moving In and Out? Understanding Migration Trends in Hawai‘i
By JoonYup Park Migration is one of the most important forces shaping Hawai‘i’s population and economy. Yet, our understanding of who is moving in and out of the state is often limited or based on anecdote. A common narrative suggests that Hawai‘i is losing lifelong residents at an increasing pace—particularly younger generations who form the […]
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