How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.)September 26, 2024By Byron Gangnes Try to tell people that we are not in a recession, and you will get a lot of pushback. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. Some households are feeling these effects, and those who are not may be… Read More
Which College Majors Pay the Most in Hawaiʻi and the US?August 22, 2024By Rachel Inafuku and Tim Halliday Despite recent discussions in the popular press, a college degree is well worth its investment. In a recent UHERO report, we demonstrated that the lifetime earnings of graduates from the University of Hawaiʻi (UH) with bachelor’s degrees were 27% higher than those of observationally similar people who exited UH… Read More
How Expanding Access to Preschool Can Benefit Hawaii’s FutureAugust 1, 2024By: Rachel Inafuku The State of Hawaii has identified a significant gap in preschool enrollment among its youngest learners. Of the 33,224 3- and 4-year olds in the state, only 55% are currently enrolled in preschool programs. While about 20% of families with children in this age group choose to opt out of preschool, there… Read More
Why Not Just Tax Them? A Middle Ground on Addressing Short-Term RentalsJuly 29, 2024By Dylan Moore Maui is at a crossroads, grappling with a severe housing crisis exacerbated by last year's wildfires. In response, Mayor Richard Bissen has proposed a ban on short-term rentals (STRs) in the hopes of converting the approximately 6172 homes on Maui that are currently used as STRs into long-term housing. While this plan… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of HawaiʻiJuly 2, 2024Read the full report By: Steven Bond-Smith and Sumit Ilamkar The economy of Hawaiʻi is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawaiʻi's economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to… Read More
Maui Short-Term Rentals, the Minatoya List, and Housing SupplyJune 25, 2024By Justin Tyndall and Emi Kim Recent state legislation has given counties new powers to regulate Transient Vacation Rental (TVR) properties. A proposal on Maui would significantly reduce the number of TVRs by withdrawing permission to operate for over 7,000 properties. Below, we briefly summarize the policy proposal and discuss the characteristics of the units… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s dragMay 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income HouseholdsApril 29, 2024By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Delinquencies have spiked in the aftermath of the Maui wildfiresMarch 21, 2024By Daniela Bond-Smith The devastating Maui wildfires destroyed most of Lahaina and displaced thousands of residents. But many Lahaina homeowners still have mortgages on their properties despite not having a home to go back to. As of the 2020 Census, almost three-quarters (74%; 1309 out of 1773) of Lahaina homeowners did not own their home free… Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in HawaiiMarch 12, 2024By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growthFebruary 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More
Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?January 19, 2024By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year.… Read More
Social, economic, and health impacts of the Red Hill fuel spill: preliminary survey resultsJanuary 18, 2024By Leah Bremer, Tara Sutton, Ruben Juarez, Nicole Siegal, Nathan DeMaagd *University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO), Water Resources Research Center (WRRC), Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. BackgroundOn November 20, 2021 the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility leaked approximately 19,000 gallons of jet fuel into the Pearl Harbor… Read More
Why College Is Worth the Investment: Estimating the Returns to a College Degree from the University of Hawai`i systemJanuary 16, 2024By Tim Halliday and Rachel Inafuku Read the full report. Across the nation, the cost of higher education has significantly increased over the past 20 years [1]. The surge in tuition prompted the Biden Administration's plan to forgive $39 billion in student loan debt for approximately 800,000 borrowers. The ongoing concerns regarding college affordability have… Read More
How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.) September 26, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Try to tell people that we are not in a recession, and you will get a lot of pushback. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. Some households are feeling these effects, and those who are not may be… Read More
Hawaiʻi’s Unnecessary Benefit Cliff: How One Small Policy Change Could Deliver Tens of Millions in Federally-Funded SNAP Benefits September 23, 2024 By Dylan Moore and Nate Hix (Hawaiʻi Public Health Institute) In Hawaiʻi, as in other states, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—otherwise known as food stamps—is one of the largest welfare programs available to low-income residents. Currently, a family of four can receive as much as $1,759/month in SNAP benefits. In a typical month, the… Read More
Which College Majors Pay the Most in Hawaiʻi and the US? August 22, 2024 By Rachel Inafuku and Tim Halliday Despite recent discussions in the popular press, a college degree is well worth its investment. In a recent UHERO report, we demonstrated that the lifetime earnings of graduates from the University of Hawaiʻi (UH) with bachelor’s degrees were 27% higher than those of observationally similar people who exited UH… Read More
How Expanding Access to Preschool Can Benefit Hawaii’s Future August 1, 2024 By: Rachel Inafuku The State of Hawaii has identified a significant gap in preschool enrollment among its youngest learners. Of the 33,224 3- and 4-year olds in the state, only 55% are currently enrolled in preschool programs. While about 20% of families with children in this age group choose to opt out of preschool, there… Read More
Why Not Just Tax Them? A Middle Ground on Addressing Short-Term Rentals July 29, 2024 By Dylan Moore Maui is at a crossroads, grappling with a severe housing crisis exacerbated by last year's wildfires. In response, Mayor Richard Bissen has proposed a ban on short-term rentals (STRs) in the hopes of converting the approximately 6172 homes on Maui that are currently used as STRs into long-term housing. While this plan… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawaiʻi July 2, 2024 Read the full report By: Steven Bond-Smith and Sumit Ilamkar The economy of Hawaiʻi is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawaiʻi's economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to… Read More
Maui Short-Term Rentals, the Minatoya List, and Housing Supply June 25, 2024 By Justin Tyndall and Emi Kim Recent state legislation has given counties new powers to regulate Transient Vacation Rental (TVR) properties. A proposal on Maui would significantly reduce the number of TVRs by withdrawing permission to operate for over 7,000 properties. Below, we briefly summarize the policy proposal and discuss the characteristics of the units… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag May 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income Households April 29, 2024 By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Delinquencies have spiked in the aftermath of the Maui wildfires March 21, 2024 By Daniela Bond-Smith The devastating Maui wildfires destroyed most of Lahaina and displaced thousands of residents. But many Lahaina homeowners still have mortgages on their properties despite not having a home to go back to. As of the 2020 Census, almost three-quarters (74%; 1309 out of 1773) of Lahaina homeowners did not own their home free… Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in Hawaii March 12, 2024 By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth February 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More
Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts? January 19, 2024 By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year.… Read More
Social, economic, and health impacts of the Red Hill fuel spill: preliminary survey results January 18, 2024 By Leah Bremer, Tara Sutton, Ruben Juarez, Nicole Siegal, Nathan DeMaagd *University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO), Water Resources Research Center (WRRC), Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. BackgroundOn November 20, 2021 the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility leaked approximately 19,000 gallons of jet fuel into the Pearl Harbor… Read More
Why College Is Worth the Investment: Estimating the Returns to a College Degree from the University of Hawai`i system January 16, 2024 By Tim Halliday and Rachel Inafuku Read the full report. Across the nation, the cost of higher education has significantly increased over the past 20 years [1]. The surge in tuition prompted the Biden Administration's plan to forgive $39 billion in student loan debt for approximately 800,000 borrowers. The ongoing concerns regarding college affordability have… Read More