UHERO BLOG

Legalizing Casino Gaming to Fund Homes for Native Hawaiians

Photo by Steve Sawusch on Unsplash

UHERO BLOG

November Rental Market: Troubling Signs Remain As State Prepares for an Uncertain 2021

Annual Hawaii Forecast With Global Outlook

Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth

Photo by little plant on Unsplash

Hawaii Rental Property Survey

In order to understand the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Hawaii’s rental housing, UHERO is fielding a monthly survey of rental property owners and managers.

COVID Pau Dashboard

ANALYTICS

Hawai'i Cellphone Mobility Data

ANALYTICS

UHERO Economic Pulse

ANALYTICS

Hawai'i High Frequency Economic Data

ENERGY POLICY & PLANNING GROUP

Workshop on Energy and Environmental Research
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Legalizing Casino Gaming to Fund Homes for Native Hawaiians

By James Mak Times are hard at the state legislature as lawmakers grapple with the fiscal crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Several bills to …

Hawaii Island Watereshed Protection and Groundwater recharge

Publication: Priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge and drinking water protection: A case study from Hawai‘i Island

Targeted investment in native forest protection and restoration translates into groundwater recharge and drinking water benefits on Hawaiʻi Island. UHERO Environmental Policy and Planning Group’s …

Vegetables at Foodland

Reviving Agriculture to Diversify Hawaii’s Economy

Hawaii state policymakers have identified agriculture as a sector capable of substantial expansion as part of the state’s efforts to diversify the economy. Agriculture has, …

Waikiki Beach (photo by little plant from Unsplash)

Annual Hawaii Forecast With Global Outlook: Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth

The Hawaii economy began to recover from the COVID-19 downturn by the end of the second quarter, but subsequent global waves of the pandemic have …

Implications of a “Green Tariff” for the University of Hawai‘i, Hawaiian Electric Company, and other Customers

In June 2015 the State passed a law setting a goal for the University of Hawai‘i (UH) to produce as much renewable energy as the …

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Data

The UHERO Data Portal provides access to a wide array of economic and social indicators for the State of Hawaiʻi, the four counties, and key external economies.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Nori Tarui

Abstract

We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions over the two-year horizon 2020Q1-2021Q4. We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries associated with the international propagation of economic impact due to the virus spread. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output, exchange rates and equity prices, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries in 1984-2019. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made before and after the outbreak. We also simulate the effect of a relative price change in fossil fuels, due to global scale carbon pricing, on consumption and output. Our results predict fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. Our forecasts anticipate more robust growth for emerging than for advanced economies. The model predicts recovery to the pre-crisis levels even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. Our counterfactual carbon pricing scenario indicates that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts.