Forecast

UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.

UHERO State Forecast Update: Recent data confirm weaker growth

The past few months have brought more evidence of Hawaii slowing. The number of visitor days remains below last year’s peak, with more worrying signs …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store?

Hawaii’s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017. Across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in …

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures

Hawaii’s economy remains on a favorable path, with record-high visitor numbers, record-low unemployment, and ongoing—if unimpressive—income gains. As expected, the economy’s rate of expansion has …

Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm

Following two years of decline, the pace of building in Hawaii has stabilized. The value of construction permits is posting healthy gains across all sub-sectors …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Growth Down, But Not Out

Hawaii’s expansion has slowed along several dimensions. On top of the painful human toll, volcanic activity and flooding have dealt a setback to tourism. The …

UHERO County Forecast: Healthy county economies face growing pains

Hawaii’s four counties are enjoying robust economic conditions and look set for continued growth. Tourism keeps surprising to the upside, even as visitor numbers strain …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Ready or not, Hawaii is set for more growth

Now in its ninth year, Hawaii’s expansion shows no signs of letting up. Tourism has surged again in the first part of 2018, extending one …

UHERO State Forecast Update: Not much lift from tax cuts in Hawaii’s soaring economy

Hawaii’s economy continues to grow, but with expected slowing as the cycle matures. Tourism is booming, construction remains on a healthy plateau, and jobs are …

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Hawaii’s Long Expansion Gets Global Economic Lift

Improving global conditions provide a favorable environment for continued expansion in the Islands. Visitor arrivals are surging to record highs, and unemployment is reaching new …