Forecasts
The UHERO Forecast Project provides Hawaii with analysis of economic, demographic, and business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Global war on inflation will hinder Hawaii growth
The global outlook continues to darken, but prospects for Hawaii remain largely unchanged from our last report. Rising interest rates, dwindling pandemic era savings, and the coming US downturn will cause a pause in growth next year. But the belated recovery of the Japanese visitor market and surging public sector construction will prevent a recession […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: US recession will weigh on Hawaii’s recovery
The economic horizon has darkened since our last forecast. The global economy has slowed sharply, and the US is headed for a mild recession in the first half of next year. Hawaii may well escape overall net job losses, thanks to the recovery of Japanese travel that is now finally underway. But high inflation, higher […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Foreign visitors will provide lift, but risks have multiplied
Hawaii’s recovery has resumed now that the Delta and Omicron waves are behind us. Once the Asian COVID-19 wave recedes, the long-awaited return of international visitors will begin later this spring. Hawaii’s delayed recovery from the pandemic means that we expect moderately strong growth, despite clearly deteriorating conditions in the US and global economies. The […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead?
The two COVID-19 waves since last summer caused a pullback in Hawaii tourism and a pause in labor market recovery. Visitor arrivals are now picking up and broader growth is resuming. The expected transition of the virus to an endemic disease will enable the return of international visitors. Considerable risks remain, including COVID-19 surprises, Fed […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms
Economic recovery resumed with the end of Hawaii’s COVID-19 wave. Now Omicron is a new threat. Renewed international travel restrictions have reduced the near-term visitor outlook, but the eventual return of foreign tourists in 2022 will enable a broader industry upturn. Moderate job gains will continue, although labor shortages, the end of pandemic support, and […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Delta wave swamps tourism, but return to recovery expected
Hawaii’s recovery has experienced a setback with the recent surge in COVID-19. Record virus numbers and preventive policy responses have caused an abrupt tourism pullback and are signalling a near-term decline in overall economic activity. While the Delta wave may now have turned the corner, we are in for a period of weakness before growth […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Vaccinations and US Strength Drive Upgraded Hawaii Forecast
Economic conditions in Hawaii are improving. The dominant US visitor market has outperformed expectations, and built-up savings and pent-up demand will drive mainland arrivals to near-normal levels in coming months. International markets will be much slower to recover. Local employment gains have been limited so far, but the vaccine rollout in Hawaii and nationally sets […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: More Substantial Recovery in Sight
Hawaii is struggling to emerge from the COVID-19 downturn, but the recovery is poised to accelerate. Falling virus counts and vaccination progress set the stage for a strengthening of tourism and the broader economy. The pandemic has damaged businesses and lower-income households, and full recovery remains several years down the road.
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast With Global Outlook: Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth
The Hawaii economy began to recover from the COVID-19 downturn by the end of the second quarter, but subsequent global waves of the pandemic have disrupted economic progress. The ongoing mainland virus surge and the State’s tightened quarantine rules will weigh on near-term recovery, while news of coming vaccines fundamentally improves growth prospects for the […]
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