Forecasts
The UHERO Forecast Project provides Hawaii with analysis of economic, demographic, and business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins
Hawaii’s economy has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and the glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key visitor markets will produce slower growth in 2024. But, absent a US recession, moderate gains will resume in 2025. While economic fallout from the Maui wildfires has been […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy
The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss on the affected communities, and sorrow among all of Hawaii’s residents. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future. In our first forecast since the fires, we assess the implications […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy
Recent developments bring both promise and peril for Hawaii. Tourism prospects are positive, despite the delayed Japanese market recovery. Construction activity will remain high, and inflation is receding rapidly, setting the stage for real income gains. On the flip side, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and liquidity problems sparked by recent bank failures threaten the […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaiʻi’s Soft Landing Still in the Cards
Our Hawaiʻi outlook continues to see economic slowing but no recession. While international tourism will continue to recover, domestic travel will soften as the US economy contracts later this year. Combined with high interest rates and prices, this will cause local growth to weaken through the first half of 2024. The cooling of inflation in […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Global war on inflation will hinder Hawaii growth
The global outlook continues to darken, but prospects for Hawaii remain largely unchanged from our last report. Rising interest rates, dwindling pandemic era savings, and the coming US downturn will cause a pause in growth next year. But the belated recovery of the Japanese visitor market and surging public sector construction will prevent a recession […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: US recession will weigh on Hawaii’s recovery
The economic horizon has darkened since our last forecast. The global economy has slowed sharply, and the US is headed for a mild recession in the first half of next year. Hawaii may well escape overall net job losses, thanks to the recovery of Japanese travel that is now finally underway. But high inflation, higher […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Foreign visitors will provide lift, but risks have multiplied
Hawaii’s recovery has resumed now that the Delta and Omicron waves are behind us. Once the Asian COVID-19 wave recedes, the long-awaited return of international visitors will begin later this spring. Hawaii’s delayed recovery from the pandemic means that we expect moderately strong growth, despite clearly deteriorating conditions in the US and global economies. The […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead?
The two COVID-19 waves since last summer caused a pullback in Hawaii tourism and a pause in labor market recovery. Visitor arrivals are now picking up and broader growth is resuming. The expected transition of the virus to an endemic disease will enable the return of international visitors. Considerable risks remain, including COVID-19 surprises, Fed […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms
Economic recovery resumed with the end of Hawaii’s COVID-19 wave. Now Omicron is a new threat. Renewed international travel restrictions have reduced the near-term visitor outlook, but the eventual return of foreign tourists in 2022 will enable a broader industry upturn. Moderate job gains will continue, although labor shortages, the end of pandemic support, and […]
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