Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: A Hard Fall for Hawai’i Tourism
The U.S. downturn and record-high oil prices have taken a big bite out of the Hawai’i tourism industry. Visitor arrivals will tumble 9% this year, the biggest annual decline since 2001. Because of deteriorating conditions for the U.S., Japanese and global economies, we now believe that a visitor industry recovery will not begin until 2010. […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawai’i Construction Forecast: Construction Downturn Milder than Mainland
Hawaii’s construction sector is now on the downward side of the cycle, but slowing continues to be considerably more moderate than in many U.S. mainland markets. The current business cycle slowdown, increased land and construction costs (mostly due to a surge in commodity prices), together with tighter credit conditions present challenges for new construction in […]
Read MoreQuarterly Hawai’i Forecast Update: Oil Surge Fuels Inflation, Threatens Deeper Downturn
Prospects for the Hawai’i economy have worsened significantly since our March Annual Hawai’i Forecast. The failures of ATA and Aloha airlines, the loss of a second NCL cruise ship, and the dramatic surge in oil prices will damage a local economy that was already feeling the effects of the national downturn.
Read MoreCounty Economic Forecast: Zero Growth Expected Statewide
To varying degrees, each of the four counties has shared in the state’s broad pattern of slowing over the past several years, a process that became more pronounced in 2007. This synchronized slowing is no mistake, reflecting broad statewide—and even global—slowing trends in construction, visitor spending and overall economic activity. There are similarly common adverse […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawai’i Forecast: Economy Grinds to a Halt
The Hawai’i economy that powered its way through much of this decade slowed to a standstill in 2007. The drag from a weakening visitor industry and an unwinding construction cycle spread to the broader economy. A U.S. recession is now underway. The mainland slump, national credit market problems, and soft local fundamentals mean there will […]
Read MoreHawai’i Construction Forecast Update: Slow Decline But No Contracting Crunch
While the external environment has become decidedly more risky since last fall, this forecast makes only a small downward revision to the forecast path. Construction employment and income will slow to very small positive gains this year, before turning negative in 2009. Some downward drift in home prices will occur, but Hawai’i will avoid the […]
Read MoreRiding the Wave: Transformations and Cycles in the Hawaii Economy
Dr. Bonham, UHERO’s executive director will give the Plenary Address at the Western Regional Science Association’s 47th Annual Meeting in Kona on Sunday February 17th. The meetings are being held at the Hilton Waikoloa Village Resort February 17th through the 20th, and will include presentations by UHERO research associates Dr. Denise Konan on the effects […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: Cooling Economy Faces U.S. Headwinds
The weakening U.S. economy and the persistence of high energy prices lead us to mark down a bit our Hawai’i growth estimates for the end of this year and 2008. However, we do not yet see an end to the current long economic expansion. Moderate job growth will continue next year, and real income will […]
Read MoreUHERO Global Economic Forecast: Faltering American Economy Will Cause Global Slowing
The world economy began to slow in 2007, after peaking at nearly 4% growth in real gross world product in 2006. Slowing has been centered in the developed world, particularly in North America, where contraction in U.S. residential investment and fallout from the sub-prime mortgage collapse is taking a substantial toll. So far this weakness […]
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