Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: Mainland Woes Pose Risks for Visitor Sector
Moderate economic expansion is expected to continue in Hawai’i for the remainder of the year, with further slowing into 2008 and 2009. The visitor industry will continue to be challenged by a weak American mainland economy. Despite recent financial market turmoil, Hawai’i’s construction industry continues to settle toward a soft landing. Fallout from mainland housing […]
Read MoreUHERO Annual Hawai’i Construction Forecast: Despite Credit Concerns, Soft Landing Expected
Despite concerns related to recent financial market turmoil, Hawai’i’s construction industry still appears to be poised for a soft landing. Growth in real contracting receipts will slow in 2007 and turn negative in 2008-09, with hotel renovation and industrial and commercial construction providing a stabilizing influence in the face of a steadily weakening residential sector. […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: Another Year with No Visitor Growth
The poor start for tourism and a restrained external outlook means that the visitor industry can expect to see no annual growth this year, and perhaps a slight decline. Construction slowing continues, although a late surge in non-residential activity will help to moderate the cycle. Slowing in the broader economy will proceed in the face […]
Read MoreUHERO County Economic Forecast: County Economies Steadily Slowing
The overall outlook for Hawai‘i’s county economies is for continued slowing along a path that has been evident since at least the middle of 2005. The pace of slowing will vary, depending on relative stage in the construction cycle, health of each county’s tourism market, and other factors. By 2008, it is expected that each […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Construction Forecast: Surge in Nonresidential Building Sustains Cycle
Hawai‘i’s construction cycle is near or past its peak,depending on which sector you look at. While the homebuilding peak occurred in 2005-06, the peak in nonresidential construction is likely in 2007 or 2008. The end of this cycle will be characterized by a slow decline in total real construction spending, but continued increase in the […]
Read MoreUHERO Annual Hawai’i Forecast: Tourism Pause Means Further Slowing Ahead
There was a pause in Hawai’i tourism growth last year, held back by capacity constraints and relatively soft visitor demand. It will be several years before additions to the accommodation inventory permit a resumption of moderate growth in arrivals and expenditure. Together with the residential construction slowdown, the weak near-term visitor outlook means that two […]
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