Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO State Forecast: Tourism Hot, But Broader Growth Still Elusive
Hawaii’s recovery is proceeding along two very different tracks. The tourism industry is on a tear, posting impressive rates of growth. With a few exceptions, the rest of the local economy is going nowhere. Nevertheless, the best residential building conditions in years and pending public projects set the stage for a construction upturn in 2013. […]
Read MoreUHERO County Forecast: Jobs Still Lag in County Recoveries
The recovery of Hawaii’s county economies continues to be fueled by the visitor industry, especially by arrivals from non-traditional markets. Job growth turned positive in three of the four counties last year, but the extent of labor market gains was disappointing. The upturn will pick up speed in 2012. A summary of this forecast is available as […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Visitor Industry Still Leading Recovery
Tourism continues to be the primary engine of Hawaii’s recovery. A number of other sectors have turned the corner, and we expect gradually improving performance this year and the next. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
Read MoreHawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Edging Toward Recovery
Construction has yet to turn the corner in Hawaii, but a pickup is now more clearly in sight. Single-family home construction languishes, but new high-rise condos, retail, and resort-related development will boost non-residential building. And legal challenges aside, rail construction is poised to begin in earnest as this year progresses. A summary of this forecast […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Some Improvement, After Disappointing 2011
Hawaii’s stop-start recovery continued in the fourth quarter. We are a bit more optimistic about prospects for 2012. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
Read MoreUHERO County Forecast: Uneven Recovery Continues
Hawaii’s county economies turned the corner in 2010, led by rapidly improving visitor sectors. The recovery will broaden and deepen in 2011, but performance will be uneven. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
Read MoreState Forecast Update: Japanese Quake Won’t Derail Recovery
The Japanese earthquake has led to a pause in visitor industry growth, but unless we see a further spike in oil prices, Hawaii’s economic recovery will continue to build strength.
Read MoreState Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum
As last year’s strong tourism rebound tapers off, Oahu rail transit work will lead to an upturn in construction.
Read MoreConstruction Forecast: Rail Construction Will Spur Industry Pick-Up
Private construction has largely stabilized in the islands and poised for limited growth. But the big impetus for construction on Oahu will come from rail transit.
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