Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Two-Speed Recovery
Recovery edges forward in the Islands, for now primarily in tourism and mostly on Oahu. But the very rapid tourism rebound will begin to spill over to the rest of the economy in 2011.
Read MoreGlobal Economic Forecast: World Recovery Falters
Global economic recovery is proceeding, but in an uneven fashion. The developing Asian countries that were the first to show signs of life last year continue to expand at a healthy pace, driven by rebounding trade but also by strong domestic demand.
Read MoreState Forecast Update: Strong Summer for Tourism
Hawaii’s recovery continues, led by a better-than-expected performance from tourism. The visitor industry’s summer strength is sustaining moderate job gains in related sectors.
Read MoreConstruction Forecast: Construction Begins to Stabilize
Hawaii’s construction industry continues to seek a bottom to what has been a bruising downturn. Recent months have brought some encouraging news, but for at least the next year, the industry will find its most promising support in public sector projects.
Read MoreCounty Economic Forecast: Counties Begin Recovery After Record Downturn
Recovery will take hold across Hawai’i’s four counties during 2010. Visitor numbers have stabilized and will gradually improve as growth strengthens in major tourism markets. After record-setting job losses, limited net hiring will begin this year, building as we move into 2011 and 2012. Private construction is bottoming out, and the sector will begin to […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Outlook: Hawai’i Recovery Takes Hold
Hawai’i’s economic recovery has begun. Employment is stabilizing, and many sectors will begin to add modest numbers of jobs as the year progresses. While growth is resuming, the pace of recovery will be slow, constrained by tepid U.S. consumer spending and the drag from the State and local fiscal conditions. As a result, unemployment will […]
Read MoreUHERO Global Economic Forecast: Asia Leads World Recovery
After a deep, synchronized recession, growth is resuming across a broad swath of the global economy. Leading the rebound are the dynamic Asian economies. These countries, which were hit hard by last year’s collapse of world trade, have now seen a return to export-led growth, much of it originating from demand within the region. Growth […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: Recovery Still Around the Corner
Things are looking up for the U.S. and global economies. Japan returned to growth in the second quarter, and it appears likely that the U.S. will post positive growth for the current quarter. It is harder to find evidence of a turnaround in the Hawai’i economy, although we expect recovery to begin by early next […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Construction Forecast: No Bottom Yet to Construction Downturn
The U.S. recession is easing, but prospects for a quick Hawai’i construction recovery remain poor. We expect U.S. output to grow by more than 2% during the current quarter, but job losses will continue into the first part of 2010. And, while overall credit conditions have improved, commercial lending is still being affected by the […]
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