Justin Tyndall
The Hawaii Housing Factbook 2025
Hawai‘i remains in a severe housing crisis. High prices and mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for most residents. Housing production remains slow, with county and state regulatory barriers posing a major obstacle to new construction. Meanwhile, shifts in the U.S. home insurance market have driven up costs, increasing homeowners’ association fees and further reducing […]
Read MoreHow New Mass Transit Affects Labor Markets: The Honolulu Skyline
Understanding how the new rail system in Oahu is reshaping decisions around work, housing, and commuting can inform future transit investments. To get a more in-depth picture of how the Honolulu Skyline is influencing the labor market, I developed a spatial model with highly detailed data that allowed me to analyze commuting times, the employment […]
Read MoreAn Economic Analysis of the Proposal to Phase Out Transient Vacation Rentals in Maui County Apartment Districts
This report examines the Maui County proposal to phase out transient vacation rentals (TVRs) in Apartment districts, including removing long-standing exceptions for pre-1989 properties widely known as the “Minatoya List.” The policy aims to improve housing affordability, worsened by the 2023 wildfires, by converting TVRs into long-term housing units. Our analysis includes effects on tourism, […]
Read MoreConstruction Defect Litigation, Housing Affordability, and Homeownership in Hawai‘i
Hawai‘i faces a severe housing shortage, driven by high costs and regulatory barriers that hinder new development. One emerging factor is the rise of construction liability litigation. While issues like land use constraints, infrastructure availability, and permitting delays have long been recognized as major challenges to housing affordability, litigation is becoming an increasingly significant source […]
Read MoreNew Study on Transfer of Development Rights and Sea Level Rise
The City and County of Honolulu Resilience Office recently featured a report coauthored by UH ISR’s Alice McLean and UHERO’s Kimberly Burnett, Makena Coffman, Justin Tyndall, Kaila Ronquilio, and Christopher Wada. The study assessed the potential of using Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) for sea level rise adaptation on O‘ahu. Results from the analysis suggest that TDR alone is […]
Read MoreA Honolulu Empty Homes Tax: Impacts on Housing Supply and County Revenue
By Justin Tyndall Honolulu faces an acute housing shortage, yet tens of thousands of homes sit empty. Bill 46 would create a new property tax that applies to empty homes. The policy aims to achieve two key objectives: (1) expand the supply of housing for local residents, and (2) generate revenue for the county. Using […]
Read MoreMaui Short-Term Rentals, the Minatoya List, and Housing Supply
By Justin Tyndall and Emi Kim Recent state legislation has given counties new powers to regulate Transient Vacation Rental (TVR) properties. A proposal on Maui would significantly reduce the number of TVRs by withdrawing permission to operate for over 7,000 properties. Below, we briefly summarize the policy proposal and discuss the characteristics of the units […]
Read MoreThe Hawaii Housing Factbook 2024
The past year has brought significant shocks to the housing market in Hawai‘i. In 2023, only one in five local households could afford a mortgage on the median-priced single-family home in the state. High interest rates make it difficult to finance a home purchase, difficult for developers to finance new construction, and disrupts the filtering […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Justin Tyndall cited in the 2024 Economic Report of the President
Congratulations to UHERO’s Justin Tyndall whose recent article (co-authored with Limin Fang and Nathan Stewart)” Homeowner Politics and Housing Supply” was cited in the 2024 Economic Report of the President.
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