Working Papers
Do Natural Disasters Make Sustainable Growth Impossible?
We consider the prospects for sustainable growth using expected utility models of optimal investment under threat from natural disasters. Adoption of a continuous time, stochastic Ramsey growth model over an infinite time horizon permits the analysis of sustainability under uncertainty regarding adverse events, including both one-time and recurrent disasters. As appropriate to small economies, we […]
Read MoreWellbeing and Housing Report Supplement
The goal of this report is to summarize how neighborhood housing price appreciation can impact quality of life beyond individual level impacts (see Love and Garboden 2019). We first discuss how housing market indicators, particularly appreciation, can be measured and summarize different patterns across Hawaii. In answer to our our main question, we find few […]
Read MoreDrivers of well-being in Hawaii: Quantifying individual and community impacts
In Gallup’s annual well-being index, Hawaii occupied the #1 spot among US states for six out of the past 10 years (slipping to #3 in the latest 2017 survey) despite having one of the nation’s highest costs of living. Thus, Hawaii presents a unique environment to study happiness and well-being. This report presents our analysis […]
Read MoreCabotage Sabotage? The Curious Case of the Jones Act
This paper examines the economic implications of the Jones Act, which is a 1920 U.S. cabotage law that restricts domestic waterborne shipments to American vessels. The rapid rise of the Asian shipbuilding industry over the last century has contributed to the closure of most American shipyards and to the decline in American built ships. Thus, […]
Read MoreSources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting
This chapter considers the types of Big Data that have proven useful for macroeconomic forecasting. It first presents the various definitions of Big Data, proposing one we believe is most useful for forecasting. The literature on both the opportunities and challenges of Big Data are presented. It then proposes a taxonomy of the types of […]
Read MoreCombinatorial Optimization for Urban Planning: Strategic Demolition of Abandoned Houses in Baltimore, MD
In 2017, Baltimore City was awarded $75 million dollars earmarked for the targeted demolition of a portion of its 16,000 vacant and abandoned buildings. Selecting an optimal set of demolition targets is difficult given that the cost per demolition is not independent of the overall demolition pattern; like many older cities, Baltimore’s abandoned housing includes […]
Read MoreDynamic Factor Models
Dynamic factor models are parsimonious representations of relationships among time series variables. With the surge in data availability, they have proven to be indispensable in macroeconomic forecasting. This chapter surveys the evolution of these models from their pre-big-data origins to the large-scale models of recent years. We review the associated estimation theory, forecasting approaches, and […]
Read MoreThe Impact of Public Health Insurance on Medical Utilization in a Vulnerable Population: Evidence from COFA Migrants
In March of 2015, the State of Hawaii stopped covering the vast majority of migrants from countries belonging to the Compact of Free Association (COFA) in the state Medicaid program. As a result COFA migrants were required to obtain private insurance in health insurance exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act. Using statewide administrative hospital […]
Read MoreThe Role of Electricity prices in Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines
The Philippines provides an extreme example of Rodrik’s observation that late developing countries experience deindustrialization at lower levels of per capita income than more advanced economies. Previous studies point to the role of protectionist policies, financial crises, and currency overvaluation as explanations for the shrinking share of the industry sector. We complement this literature by […]
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