Miconia (Miconia calvescens DC) was introduced to the East Maui Watershed (EMW) a half-century ago with more than 25 years of management recorded. Using a historical spatiotemporal data set, we constructed a dispersal kernel for miconia in the EMW. Seedbank persistence, based on postdated recruitment, displayed an exponential decay projecting extinction beyond 20 years. In a simulated stage matrix model, we projected management efforts to locally eradicate a small incipient propagule bank wherein optimal management was achieved with an annual harvest rate that eliminated all juvenile recruits before reaching maturity, until extinction. In a scenario prioritizing the upper region of EMW, we retroactively analyzed past HBT efforts eliminating satellite M. calvescens.
