Peter Fuleky

UHERO Research Economist and Associate Professor of Economics


University of Washington, Ph.D., Economics, 2009

Florida State University, M.B.A., 2002

Czech Technical University, M.S., Civil Engineering, 1997

Research Interests

Econometrics, Times Series Analysis, Forecasting, Empirical Macroeconomics, Tourism Economics.

Peter joined UHERO in 2010 as a Postdoctoral Fellow and currently serves as a UHERO Economist and an Associate Professor of Economics. His primary research interests include applied econometrics and forecasting. Peter’s recent papers have focused on mixed frequency modeling of economic relationships and nowcasting, and he is a coauthor of UHERO’s quarterly economic forecast reports.

Selected Publications

Doz, Catherine and Fuleky, P. (2020). Dynamic Factor Models. In P. Fuleky (Ed.) Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data, Springer.

Fuleky, P., Ventura, L., and Zhao, Q. (2018). Common Correlated Effects and International Risk Sharing. International Finance, 21(1):55-70.

Hirashima, A., Jones, J., Bonham, C. S., and Fuleky, P. (2017). Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 63(1):191-202.
(Working paper title: Nowcasting Tourism Industry Performance Using High Frequency Covariates)

Fuleky, P., and Ventura, L. (2016). Mean Lag in General Error Correction Models. Economics Letters, 143:107-110.

Fuleky, P., Ventura, L., and Zhao, Q. (2015). International Risk Sharing in the Short and in the Long Run under Country Heterogeneity. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(4):374-384.

Fuleky, P., and Bonham, C. S. (2015). Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Factor Models in the Presence of Common Trends. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4):753-775.

Fuleky, P., and Zivot, E. (2014). Indirect Inference Based on the Score. Econometrics Journal, 17(3):383-393.

Fuleky, P., Zhao, Q., and Bonham, C. S. (2014). Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels. Annals of Tourism Research, 44(1):131-142.

Fuleky, P. (2012). On the Choice of the Unit Period in Time Series Models. Applied Economics Letters, 19(12):1179–82.

Figure 2: Time plot of the index (black) and nonfarm payrolls and the Philadelphia Fed coincident index (red).

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery:
The Weekly UHERO Economic Pulse

By Peter Fuleky COVID-19 has brought the longest period of economic expansion in modern history to an abrupt halt. The pace and magnitude of decline …

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from …

Hawaii State Senate Floor

Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies

By Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, and Peter Fuleky The economic shutdown in Hawaii and elsewhere due to the novel coronavirus has led to sharp reductions …