By Sumner La Croix and Lauren Gabriel
The U.S. Supreme Court’s decisions in the two same-sex marriage cases have substantially increased the short-term and medium-term benefits that could accrue to Hawai‘i if the Hawai‘i State Legislature enacts legislation allowing same-sex marriages to begin in Fall 2013 or early in 2014. Our updated report comes to the following conclusions.
- The
U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn California’s Proposition 8
and allow same-sex marriages to resume again in California has massively
increased the potential gains to the state’s tourism industry from
same-sex couples visiting Hawai‘i either to marry or to honeymoon and
from guests attending their weddings or marriage celebrations. This is
because marriage equality in California increases the proportion of
Hawai‘i’s visitors from states with marriage equality from 18 percent to
54 percent. We estimate $166 million in additional spending over the
2014-2016 period from marriages and honeymoons of same-sex couples
visiting from states with marriage equality. - The U.S.
Supreme Court’s ruling in the DOMA case has opened the door to a limited
set of federal rights for all same-sex couples regardless of whether
they live in a state with marriage equality. Some same-sex couples from
states without marriage equality now have incentives to travel to
another state to marry and honeymoon. Some of these couples would
choose to marry and/or honeymoon in Hawai‘i if same-sex marriage were
legal in Hawai‘i. Including spending from marriages and honeymoons of
same-sex couples from states without marriage equality increases total
additional spending to $217 million over the 2014-2016 period. - We
estimate that marriage equality in Hawai‘i will increase State of
Hawai‘i and City and County of Honolulu general excise tax revenues by
$10.2 million over the 2014-2016 period. State income tax revenues
would also increase, but we have not estimated their magnitude. - Without
access to marriage in Hawai‘i, local same-sex couples can only gain
access to federal marriage rights by traveling to the U.S. mainland to
marry. This reduces same-sex couple spending in Hawai‘i, harms the
Hawai‘i wedding industry, and raises the cost to many Hawai‘i same-sex
couples of becoming married. - Marriage equality in Hawai‘i
would lead to substantial federal tax savings for married same-sex
Hawai‘i couples with a spouse as a beneficiary on the other spouse’s
employer-paid health insurance. Marriage equality would also allow
married Hawai‘i same-sex couples to become eligible to draw spousal
benefits from a number of federal programs, including social security.