UH Mānoa is particularly strong in energy, environment and resource policy, which often requires interdisciplinary research. This workshop is organized by UHERO and facilitates interaction among faculty and graduate students in UHERO, Economics, Engineering, NREM, DURP, SOEST and more. We also hope to draw participation from visitors and professional economists and policy analysts around the State. Work in progress is strongly encouraged!
Seminars will take place at the Miller Room. The seminar can also be attended online via Zoom on Mondays from 12:00pm – 1:15pm. Subscribe to the WEER mailing list to receive the Zoom link and further information on upcoming sessions.
Class Credit:
Graduate students can obtain ECON 696 credit from Professor Roberts.
Spring 2025
Causes and Consequences of Agricultural Land Use in Hawaii
Abstract:
The ways in which agricultural land is used and managed has both public and private consequences. Landowners tend to allocate land to uses that they expect will maximize their net financial returns, which are influenced by market conditions, government policies, land characteristics, and costs of converting land between different uses (Lubowski et al., 2008). However, land use activities affect broader social and environmental goals as well as the landscapes, local food availability, ecosystem health, fire hazards, cultural heritage, and other outcomes that matter to the communities where these lands exist (Bremer et al., 2018). The evolution of agricultural land use in Hawaiʻi is shaped by a unique and complex history, beginning with the development of ancestral Hawaiian ʻāina-based systems and continuing through the dramatic transformations brought about by the establishment of plantations, the overthrow of the Hawaiian Kingdom, the rise of tourism and military industries, and the ongoing Native Hawaiian Renaissance and Food Systems Transformation movements. Following the decline of plantations, it was anticipated that former plantation lands zoned for agriculture would be used to grow diverse agrifood products, yet approximately 40% of the lands zoned for agriculture in Hawaiʻi remain fallow (Melrose et al., 2016). In addition to the opportunity cost of productive uses, these fallow lands are dominated by invasive grasses creating a fire-prone landscape adjacent to housing and critical infrastructure, increasing the risk of wildfire disaster (Trauernicht et al., 2015). This is unfortunately exemplified by the devastating fire that consumed the historic city of Lahaina, killing over 100 people and displacing thousands of others, as well as creating billions of USD in damages in the Summer of 2023 (Farrant et al., 2024). To address this issue, we examine the historical consequences of agricultural land use change and propose an Agricultural Land Use Model to holistically evaluate the costs and benefits of fire-mitigating land uses for high-risk agricultural lands in Hawaiʻi.
The economic value of coral reefs under future climate scenarios for the Main Hawaiian Islands
Abstract:
Coral reefs, characterized by their rich diversity, are productive ecosystems contributing to the provision of a wide range of ecosystem services, including recreation, coastal protection, and marine biodiversity. Climate change impacts, including ocean warming and acidification, pose a significant threat to coral reefs and the associated provisioning of ecosystem services. The variability of these impacts underlines the need to develop more spatially explicit tools in coastal ecosystem management that integrate and assess potential ecological and socio-economic outcomes. To address this gap, we employ a spatially explicit predictive ecological model to project changes in coral reef cover using downscaled predictions from socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios. Using future scenarios, we estimate welfare impacts from recreational value of coral reefs across populations and landscapes. Under SSP3, we find welfare impacts range from $3 to $220 per person, depending on location. Our process considers site-specific characteristics, income distributions, and regional projected population growth to bridge the gap between ecological consequences and social justice considerations. We highlight impacts in historically disadvantaged communities that differ regional vulnerabilities across the MHI. Our findings can inform policy decisions and resource allocation strategies promoting a more comprehensive and just approach to ecosystem management in the MHI.
Land Conservation and the Clean Energy Transition
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between land conservation values, land use protections, and the development of wind and solar electricity generation resources. We link a nationwide dataset of renewable project proposals since 2000 to geospatial information on wetlands, critical habitats, and conservation easements. We estimate an empirical model of developers’ site selection and subsequent project progression, accounting for key economic factors such as revenue potential, land values, and infrastructure costs. Our findings indicate that land use protections significantly reduce the likelihood of both entering the electricity interconnection queue and securing interconnection agreements. In particular, proximity to conservation easements–a legal and tax structure that permanently restricts development on 40 million acres–substantially lowers the probability of project success. A preliminary simulation-based exercise suggests that while land protections have constrained development on sites with high conservation value, they have not significantly affected overall investment costs.
The Gas Trap: Outcompeting Coal vs. Renewables
Abstract:
We analyze a fundamental dilemma and time-inconsistency problem facing climate-concerned producers of natural gas. In the short term, it is tempting to produce more to outcompete coal. When this policy is anticipated, however, investments in renewables fall and emissions may ultimately increase. When the coalition cannot pre-commit, its policies can be counterproductive. A simulated version applied to Europe verifies that the gas trap is quantitatively important. We discuss the robustness of this result and possible solutions, ranging from direct investments in renewables to taxes on the search and exploration of gas.
Quantifying Recreational Benefits from Fish Consumption Advisories: Insights from Cellphone Mobility Data
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of fish consumption advisories on recreational behavior and visitor welfare using large-scale mobility data from Michigan. By integrating cellphone-based location data with a discrete choice modeling framework, we estimate the causal effects of advisories on recreation site selection and quantify the associated welfare benefits of disclosing risks. To address potential endogeneity, we employ an instrumental variable approach using the number of Toxic Release Inventory facilities in upstream watersheds. Our findings show that advisories significantly deter recreational visits, with an average visitor willing to pay approximately $72 per quarter to avoid sites under advisory. The deterrent effect is most pronounced during peak recreational seasons, particularly in the summer, when willingness to pay to avoid advisory sites rises to over $87 per quarter. We also find that full disclosure on advisories led to aggregated welfare benefits of $3.4 million annually, highlighting the broader recreational benefits of fish consumption advisories and emphasizing the need to account for these benefits when assessing the overall impact of advisories
The Cost of Hurricane Evacuations
Abstract:
Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme natural disasters, which threaten human life and safety. Evacuation is a key protective action against hurricane danger, but it may be costly for individuals. Despite being an important input to emergency management decisions, there is little evidence on the size of these costs. In this paper we estimate the welfare costs of hurricane evacuations. We combine spatial data on hurricanes, flooding, and evacuation orders with millions of records of individuals’ cell phone-derived movement activity to study how communities behave during hurricanes. These data generate rich insights about evacuation behavior, including differences by physical risk, information provision, and demographics. Using a structural travel cost model we estimate that the welfare costs of evacuation can be large when compared to mortality costs, averaging a ratio of one to ten but occasionally exceeding the value of statistical life lost (VSL). These results document an understudied cost of hurricanes.
Past and Future Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Demand: Evidence from the U.S. Natural Gas Sector
Abstract:
We assess historical and projected impacts of climate change on U.S. natural gas use. This sector provides a compelling case study: the relationship between weather and demand is direct and measurable—weather alone explains 89% of the variance in residential gas use—and energy consumption is central to economic activity and the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions. We develop a flexible empirical framework linking state-level natural gas demand—across residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity-generating sectors—to population-weighted, continuously measured heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD). We optimize the bounds of these degree-day measures for predictive accuracy and allow weather sensitivities to vary flexibly across time, seasons, and geography. A comprehensive cross-validation procedure evaluates 139 million model specifications; optimal models explain 98%, 95%, 80%, and 78% of whole-year out-of-sample variation in residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity-related demand, respectively.
Historically, growth in CDD far exceeds reductions in HDD—a pattern that climate models predict will become more pronounced in the future. To capture long-run adaptation, we develop an approach that accounts for changes in both demand levels and temperature sensitivity. We identify these effects using cross-sectional differences in climate and differential climate trends. Cross-sectional evidence indicates adaptation, with average consumption levels and weather sensitivities varying by climate. Estimates based on long differences suggest more limited adaptation—possibly reflecting inertia or reduced confounding.
We find that historical declines in gas demand for heating have been fully offset by increased electricity use for cooling. Forward-looking projections suggest that rising cooling demand will outpace heating declines by a factor of 3 to 10, depending on the warming scenario. While this shift raises concerns for increased fossil fuel use and system reliability, the expansion of summer-peaking solar generation offers a cost-effective means of accommodating future demand.
MA Capstone
Abstract: