Byron Gangnes
Economists Debate How Quick to Cut
At the start of the first post-sequester week, economists at the annual policy conference of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) in Washington D.C. debated options for U.S. fiscal policy. Two leading figures from the right and the left took starkly different views of where policy should head in the near term, but agreed on (at […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast Director Named Economics Department Chair
UHERO congratulates Forecast Project Director, Byron Gangnes for his appointment as the Chair of the Economics Department at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. Dr. Gangnes will serve in the position from January 1, 2012 through July 31, 2015.
Read MoreQ&A: UHERO Forecast Update Released Today
1. UHERO RELEASED THE FOURTH QUARTER UPDATE TO ITS HAWAII FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE TITLE IS “HAWAII IN PAUSE MODE.” WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT? This is something we’ve been talking about for several months. After strong gains in tourism and to a lesser extent in employment in 2010, the state economy has moved […]
Read MoreFed acts to lower mortgage rates
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the state of the US economy and to decide on monetary policy actions. This meeting is a particularly interesting meeting because of the clear signs of economic weakness over the past six months and the relatively new phenomena of the direct political […]
Read MoreThoughts on President Obama’s proposed Jobs Act
President Obama proposed a larger-than-expected $447 billion American Jobs Act. More than half the package is for an expansion of this year’s payroll tax cuts and similar relief for employers. Tax cuts of this type may have limited bang per buck, but they can be implemented quickly, important given the urgency of the jobs problem. Also included […]
Read MoreRecession or Not, US Growth Will Continue to Disappoint
The US economy is once again flirting with recession. While most data still suggest continued growth, recent events have clearly turned in a more negative direction. Coming weeks will show whether the damage is bad enough to tip the economy into a full-fledged downturn. In the mean time, this period of slower growth is taking […]
Read MoreIs Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller?
The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth–in the words of Rubin (2009), “…Your world is going to get a whole lot smaller.” Using data from China’s Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of oil prices on trade’s […]
Read MoreThe Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly Are ARRA Jobs
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was intended to stimulate the U.S. economy and to create jobs. But at what cost? In this paper, we discuss the range of potential benefits and costs associated with counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Benefits and costs may be social, macroeconomic, systemic, and budgetary. They may depend importantly on timing and […]
Read MoreWhy Hasn’t the US Economic Stimulus Been More Effective? The Debate on Tax and Expenditure Multipliers
Recent dissatisfaction with the impact of expenditure stimulus on economic activity in the United States, along with the results of academic research, have once again raised questions about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies and about whether stimulus to a recessionary economy should be in the form of tax cuts or expenditure increases. This paper considers […]
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