Byron Gangnes
Immigration Economics
By Byron Gangnes Immigrants have always been an important part of America’s population. But for just as long there have been concerns about the impact of immigration on US society and the economy. The recent “surge” in unauthorized immigration at the Southern border and the candidacy of Donald Trump animated an already growing backlash against […]
Read MoreHow I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.)
By Byron Gangnes Try to tell people that we are not in a recession, and you will get a lot of pushback. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. Some households are feeling these effects, and those who are not may be […]
Read MoreJapan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag
By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinar
On Thursday, March 28, UHERO’s Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank’s Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event.
Read MoreThe supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth
By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the […]
Read MoreCould the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?
By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year. […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Byron Gangnes named a LinkedIn Top Voice
Congratulations to UHERO’s Byron Gangnes for being named a LinkedIn Top Voice! The recognition is given to only about 300 people each year (out of nearly 1 billion members) by a LinkedIn committee. Top Voices are vetted to ensure that they meet high trust standards, are consistently active on the platform, and share valuable expertise through content […]
Read MoreWhen is economic growth too strong?
By Byron Gangnes To most of us, faster economic growth is a good thing. It reduces unemployment, raises profits and wages, and generates healthier government fiscal situations. (Of course, some might worry about the pressures of rapid growth on the environment.) But the Federal Reserve is concerned that continued strong growth in the US economy […]
Read MoreNo credit card binge, but burdens are rising
By Byron Gangnes Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of disposable income remains moderate by historical standards. And as the figure below also shows, they have risen only to pre-pandemic levels when expressed in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. There’s no debt binge out there. But interest rates have risen considerably […]
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