Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawai‘iJuly 2, 2024Read the summary blog post. The economy of Hawai‘i is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawai‘i’s economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to these issues—which became especially salient… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of HawaiʻiJuly 2, 2024Read the full report By: Steven Bond-Smith and Sumit Ilamkar The economy of Hawaiʻi is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawaiʻi's economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to… Read More
Exploring the Gender Pay Gap in Hawai‘iMay 28, 2024The US has made substantial progress in closing the historical earnings gap between men and women, but data from the American Community Survey (ACS) shows that from 2015 to 2022 full-time working women in the US earned 84 cents for every dollar a man made. In Hawai‘i, full-time women fared slightly better, making 86 cents… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s dragMay 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growthMay 10, 2024Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate.… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income HouseholdsApril 29, 2024By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Wealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in HawaiiApril 25, 2024Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students' exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers… Read More
UHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinarMarch 20, 2024On Thursday, March 28, UHERO's Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank's Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event. Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in HawaiiMarch 12, 2024By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery endsFebruary 23, 2024Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growthFebruary 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More
Combining agglomeration economies and endogenous growth without scale effectsJanuary 19, 2024Abstract: Increasing returns to scale is essential to both spatial economics and macroeconomic growth. Spatial externalities imply external local increasing returns that generate an uneven spatial distribution of economic activity. While non-rival knowledge also implies increasing returns – in order to endogenise growth – this is not a spatial micro-foundation. Spatial theories of growth must… Read More
Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?January 19, 2024By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year.… Read More
Economic Impact of the Natural Energy Laboratory Hawaii Authority Tenants on the State of Hawaii in 2022January 12, 2024NELHA contracted the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) to estimate its economic impact on the State of Hawaii. Specifically, this research determined NELHA’s contribution to local business sales, employee earnings, tax revenues, and number of jobs in Hawaii from the expenditures of its tenants in 2022. To estimate expenditures made by NELHA tenants… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery beginsDecember 15, 2023Hawaii’s economy has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and the glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key visitor markets will produce slower growth in 2024. But, absent a US recession, moderate gains will resume in 2025. While economic fallout from the Maui wildfires has been… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawai‘i July 2, 2024 Read the summary blog post. The economy of Hawai‘i is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawai‘i’s economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to these issues—which became especially salient… Read More
Exploring the Gender Pay Gap in Hawai‘i May 28, 2024 The US has made substantial progress in closing the historical earnings gap between men and women, but data from the American Community Survey (ACS) shows that from 2015 to 2022 full-time working women in the US earned 84 cents for every dollar a man made. In Hawai‘i, full-time women fared slightly better, making 86 cents… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag May 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth May 10, 2024 Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate.… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income Households April 29, 2024 By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Wealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in Hawaii April 25, 2024 Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students' exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers… Read More
UHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinar March 20, 2024 On Thursday, March 28, UHERO's Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank's Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event. Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in Hawaii March 12, 2024 By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends February 23, 2024 Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth February 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More
Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts? January 19, 2024 By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year.… Read More
Economic Impact of the Natural Energy Laboratory Hawaii Authority Tenants on the State of Hawaii in 2022 January 12, 2024 NELHA contracted the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) to estimate its economic impact on the State of Hawaii. Specifically, this research determined NELHA’s contribution to local business sales, employee earnings, tax revenues, and number of jobs in Hawaii from the expenditures of its tenants in 2022. To estimate expenditures made by NELHA tenants… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins December 15, 2023 Hawaii’s economy has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and the glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key visitor markets will produce slower growth in 2024. But, absent a US recession, moderate gains will resume in 2025. While economic fallout from the Maui wildfires has been… Read More