Economy
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag
By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth
Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate. […]
Read MoreUnclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income Households
By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai’i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis […]
Read MoreWealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in Hawaii
Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students’ exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers […]
Read MoreUHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinar
On Thursday, March 28, UHERO’s Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank’s Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event.
Read MoreThe Gender Pay Gap in Hawaii
By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women’s Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends
Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley […]
Read MoreThe supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth
By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the […]
Read MoreCombining agglomeration economies and endogenous growth without scale effects
Abstract: Increasing returns to scale is essential to both spatial economics and macroeconomic growth. Spatial externalities imply external local increasing returns that generate an uneven spatial distribution of economic activity. While non-rival knowledge also implies increasing returns – in order to endogenise growth – this is not a spatial micro-foundation. Spatial theories of growth must […]
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