Economy
UHERO Annual Hawaii Forecast: Tourism Hot, But Broader Growth Still Elusive
Hawaii’s recovery is proceeding along two very different tracks. The tourism industry is on a tear, posting impressive rates of growth. With a few exceptions, the rest of the local economy is going nowhere. Nevertheless, the best residential building conditions in years and pending public projects set the stage for a construction upturn in 2013. […]
Read MoreAnother weak employment report—still waiting on the Fed
The US economy has slowed markedly over the past several months with only 145,000 jobs added in April and May combined. The June Employment Situation released this morning by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was more of the same. Another month of weak job growth. The 80,000 jobs created in June fell short of even the […]
Read MoreStill waiting for tourism boom to spread
Barring a complete meltdown of the European Union—by no means a sure thing—Hawaii’s visitor industry will break all records for arrivals and nominal visitor spending this year. The Hawaii Tourism Authority just released May data showing few signs of slowing. US visitor arrivals were up 8 percent compared with May 2011, while May arrivals from Japan (seasonally […]
Read MoreA Weak Employment Report for May
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the State Employment and Unemployment Summary today, and just like the national numbers for May, the numbers for Hawaii were disappointing. In fact, Hawaii had one of the largest month-to-month percentage declines. “Alaska experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decline in employment (-0.8 percent), followed by New Mexico (-0.6 percent) and Delaware […]
Read MoreHow Big? The Impact of Approved Destination Status on Mainland Chinese Travel Abroad
China’s Approved Destination Status (ADS) policy governs foreign leisure travel by citizens to ADS-designated countries. To model the effects of ADS on Chinese visitor arrivals, we specify a model of demand for a representative Chinese consumer who values trips to n differentiated foreign destinations. Using panel data for Chinese visitor arrivals for 61 countries from 1985 to 2005, we […]
Read MoreQ & A: Europe’s slow moving train wreck
1. BY FRIDAY OF LAST WEEK, US STOCK’S HAD GIVEN UP ALL OF THEIR 2012 GAINS, BUT THEN THE MARKET RALLIED BY ALMOST 3% IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THIS WEEK. WHATS GOING ON? US stocks peaked this year in early April, but then weak economic news caught up with the market. A […]
Read MoreThe Lag in Employment Recovery
While US real GDP bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009 and is now back at its pre-recession level, non-farm payrolls only started picking up at the beginning of 2010, and they remain far below their previous peak. What explains the existence of this lag? This brief appeared in the most recent UHERO County […]
Read MoreQ & A: Data Deluge!
1. THIS WAS A VERY BUSY WEEK FOR ECONOMIC NEWS. LETS START WITH THE HAWAII NEWS? Yesterday the Hawaii Tourism Authority released the April visitor numbers, and the string of strong visitor spending continues. April 2012 visitor spending of $1.17 billion was a record for the month of April, and after adjusting for seasonal variation […]
Read MoreQ & A: Positive Outlook on Hawaii Economy
1. UHERO RELEASED ITS SECOND QUARTER STATE FORECAST UPDATE—”VISITOR INDUSTRY STILL LEADING RECOVERY”. HOW STRONG IS THE VISITOR INDUSTRY RECOVER? In the first quarter of 2012, the total number of visitors to the state surged 8.5% above previous-year levels. Visitor days rose more than 9%, and spending is up more than 14%. We are forecasting […]
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