Economy

Oil Prices and Hawaii Travel

September 13, 2011

Oil prices have fluctuated widely in recent years. In our recent County Forecast Report, we discussed how oil affects the overall economy. Because fuel costs represent about 40% of airline expenses, they can have a large effect on the profitability and behavior of airlines, and ultimately the Hawaii tourism industry. The price of oil has a […]

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Thoughts on President Obama’s proposed Jobs Act

September 8, 2011

President Obama proposed a larger-than-expected $447 billion American Jobs Act. More than half the package is for an expansion of this year’s payroll tax cuts and similar relief for employers.  Tax cuts of this type may have limited bang per buck, but they can be implemented quickly, important given the urgency of the jobs problem.  Also included […]

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The Direct and Indirect Contributions of Tourism to Regional GDP: Hawaii

September 7, 2011

After two decades of development and refinement, the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) has been touted as the most comprehensive way to measure the economic contribution of tourism to a destination’s gross domestic product. However, recent literature has pointed out that the TSA is deficient in that it does not yield the indirect contribution of tourism […]

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Recession or Not, US Growth Will Continue to Disappoint

The US economy is once again flirting with recession. While most data still suggest continued growth, recent events have clearly turned in a more negative direction. Coming weeks will show whether the damage is bad enough to tip the economy into a full-fledged downturn. In the mean time, this period of slower growth is taking […]

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In Weak Economy the Fed is prepared to act

August 26, 2011

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released a downward revision to its estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product this morning. They now estimate that the US economy expanded at a 1.0% annualized rate during the second quarter, down from 1.3% in their advance release The primary factors leading to the downward revision were a decline in […]

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Q & A: Social Security Disability Program – Problems and Reforms

August 19, 2011

1.  THE SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION IS KNOWN FOR ITS OLD-AGE PENSION PROGRAM BUT IT ALSO RUNS A PROGRAM PROVIDING BENEFITS TO DISABLED AMERICANS? The Social Security Disability Program provides insurance for American workers and their families against being left in poverty and unable to pay medical expenses if they become disabled.  The Program currently provides […]

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Hawaii Tourism Faces Challenging 2011

August 10, 2011

A little more than half way through 2011, Hawaii finds itself facing more economic uncertainty as the EU and US economies deal with slow growth, financial market volatility, and nervous consumers. What a disappointment given the early prospects for a year of strengthening tourism. But early in the year the  tourism outlook was tarnished by […]

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Q & A: S&P’s downgrade of its rating for U.S. Treasury bonds

August 8, 2011

1.  S&P’S DOWNGRADE: HOW DOES IT CHANGE THINGS? S&P’s downgrade of the US long term credit rating is a landmark historical event for the US. The ratings downgrade–from AAA to AA+– tells potential buyers of US government bonds that the risk of the US government defaulting on its $14 trillion debt has risen substantially. And […]

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Q & A: U.S. Employment, Unemployment… and the Stock Market

August 5, 2011

1.  WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF THE JULY EMPLOYMENT REPORT? Non-farm employment increased by 117,000 jobs while private employment increased by 154,000 jobs. Employment counts for May and June were revised upwards. The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.2% to 9.1%, and average hourly earnings rose to $23.10. 2.  WHICH SECTORS ARE RESTRAINING JOB GROWTH? The State/Local Government sector is still cutting spending and jobs to balance […]

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