Economy
Indirect Inference Based on the Score
The Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) estimator popularized by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) is an indirect inference estimator based on the simulated auxiliary score evaluated at the sample estimate of the auxiliary parameters. We study an alternative estimator that uses the sample auxiliary score evaluated at the simulated binding function which maps the structural parameters […]
Read MoreUHERO Brief: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake / Tsunami in Japan?
The unfolding nuclear disaster in Japan makes any assessment of the near term outlook highly speculative. In coming weeks, as data on the extent of damage to Japan and Hawaii’s tourism industry is collected, UHERO will analyze the impact of the crisis on the near term outlook for Hawaii. In this UHERO Brief, UH economist […]
Read MoreThe Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake / Tsunami in Japan?
The unfolding nuclear disaster in Japan makes any assessment of the near term outlook highly speculative. In coming weeks, as data on the extent of damage to Japan and Hawaii’s tourism industry is collected, UHERO will analyze the impact of the crisis on the near term outlook for Hawaii. In this UHERO Brief, UH economist […]
Read MorePayment schemes in random-termination experimental games
We consider payment schemes in experiments that model infinite-horizon games by using random termination. We compare paying subjects cumulatively for all periods of the game; with paying subjects for the last period only; with paying for one of the periods, chosen randomly. Theoretically, assuming expected utility maximization and risk neutrality, both the cumulative and the […]
Read MoreState Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum
As last year’s strong tourism rebound tapers off, Oahu rail transit work will lead to an upturn in construction.
Read MoreIs Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller?
The surge of oil prices in recent years has led to speculation that rising transportation costs could end the period of dramatic world trade growth–in the words of Rubin (2009), “…Your world is going to get a whole lot smaller.” Using data from China’s Customs Statistics, we examine the impact of oil prices on trade’s […]
Read MorePreferential Trade and Welfare with Differentiated Products
We consider analytically and numerically the welfare tradeoffs inherent in a preferential trade area (PTA) with products differentiated by region of origin. For a small open economy in such a setting, welfare gains are associated with higher trade volumes within the PTA. However, welfare losses are induced by declining tariff revenues on trade with nonmember […]
Read MoreThe Impact of Civil Unions on Hawaii’s Economy and Government
This report provides quantitative and qualitative measures of the impact of same-sex civil unions on the Hawai`i economy, Hawai`i businesses, and the State of Hawai`i’s budget. More specifically, we examine the effect of civil unions on tourism arrivals to Hawai`i; state government revenues and expenditures; employer provision of health insurance to civil union partners and […]
Read MoreConstruction Forecast: Rail Construction Will Spur Industry Pick-Up
Private construction has largely stabilized in the islands and poised for limited growth. But the big impetus for construction on Oahu will come from rail transit.
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