Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Hawai’i Construction Forecast: No Bottom Yet to Construction Downturn
The U.S. recession is easing, but prospects for a quick Hawai’i construction recovery remain poor. We expect U.S. output to grow by more than 2% during the current quarter, but job losses will continue into the first part of 2010. And, while overall credit conditions have improved, commercial lending is still being affected by the […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: State Budget Crisis Threatens Recovery
Two recent developments have caused us to mark down a bit our already weak outlook for the Hawai’i economy. The H1N1 flu epidemic has worsened prospects for Japanese tourism, which will lead to somewhat larger visitor losses this year. But the bigger concern is fallout from the State fiscal crisis. Government actions to address the […]
Read MoreCounty Economic Forecast: Neighbor Islands Bear Brunt of Recession
Hawai’i’s counties face the most challenging economic environment in many years. The severe U.S. and global recessions will last through much of 2009, and when recovery does begin it is likely to be anemic by historical standards. This means a long and deep downturn for the Hawai’i visitor industry. Construction activity will continue to decline […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawai’i Forecast: After Sharp Drop, Recovery Will Take Time
The next several years will be difficult ones for Hawai’i businesses and households. The visitor industry will languish, as the deepest global recession in decades continues to undermine travel demand.
Read MoreHawai’i Construction Forecast Update: Global Downturn Hammers Construction
The global credit crisis and deepening recession have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai’i construction industry. Commercial and resort building are in retreat, hampered by a bleak national outlook and financing constraints. The residential construction downturn will continue as income and wealth losses undermine housing demand. We now expect a deeper adjustment in the local […]
Read MoreUHERO Hawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: Weak Growth Expected in New Year
Prospects are good for an early-2010 return to growth in Hawai’i. Recent data suggest we are past the trough of the visitor industry downturn, and gradual improvement will occur as the global recovery takes hold. The construction cycle is expected to bottom out late next year. After steep losses, most industries will begin to start […]
Read MoreHawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: No Quick Recovery from Hawai’i Recession
The global financial crisis and widening global downturn have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai’i economy. Economic conditions are now poor in virtually every visitor market, and as a result we expect the current sharp tourism downturn to continue well into next year, with no significant recovery until 2010. Moderate contraction of the construction industry […]
Read MoreGlobal Economic Forecast: Crisis Contagion Spreads Global Recession
The unfolding financial crisis will cause the deepest slowdown of global growth in many years. In 2009, the rich world will be in recession, and developing economies will suffer a sharp reduction in growth rates. The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai’i’s ailing visitor […]
Read MoreSpecial Report: Maui Construction Jobs Down 12% since March
The momentum created in Maui’s construction sector by soaring median home and condo prices, inexpensive financing, and multiple luxury resort developments has dissipated over the past two years. With the deepening financial crisis and a substantially weaker housing market, employment in the contracting sector on Maui has taken a tumble this year. Because construction has […]
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