The global credit crisis and deepening recession have materially worsened prospects for the Hawai’i construction industry. Commercial and resort building are in retreat, hampered by a bleak national outlook and financing constraints. The residential construction downturn will continue as income and wealth losses undermine housing demand. We now expect a deeper adjustment in the local real estate market, although somewhat milder than past Hawai’i experience and much less severe than the steep contractions in some mainland regions. Government spending initiatives may provide substantial support for the industry in the medium term, but they will provide very little stimulus over the next two years.
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March 21, 2024
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