Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO State Forecast Update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store?
Hawaii’s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017. Across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity. Tourism challenges were not limited to the aftermath of flood and fire, but also reflected weakening in some key markets and a falloff in spending. At home, population growth […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures
Hawaii’s economy remains on a favorable path, with record-high visitor numbers, record-low unemployment, and ongoing—if unimpressive—income gains. As expected, the economy’s rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, and risks to the external environment have increased. But at present there are no signs of an imminent downturn. Instead, further growth at […]
Read MoreHawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm
Following two years of decline, the pace of building in Hawaii has stabilized. The value of construction permits is posting healthy gains across all sub-sectors this year, and projects either planned or in the pipeline will maintain construction activity near its current level through the end of the decade. This analysis and near-term forecast is […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Growth Down, But Not Out
Hawaii’s expansion has slowed along several dimensions. On top of the painful human toll, volcanic activity and flooding have dealt a setback to tourism. The construction sector has continued to drop back from its 2016 peak, and job growth has slowed to a near-stop. Still, the fundamentals look favorable. Global tourism continues to power forward, […]
Read MoreUHERO County Forecast: Healthy county economies face growing pains
Hawaii’s four counties are enjoying robust economic conditions and look set for continued growth. Tourism keeps surprising to the upside, even as visitor numbers strain infrastructure and communities. Record low unemployment will limit job growth but bring welcome income gains. Kauai flooding and the Kilauea eruption remind us that the counties remain vulnerable to adverse […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Ready or not, Hawaii is set for more growth
Now in its ninth year, Hawaii’s expansion shows no signs of letting up. Tourism has surged again in the first part of 2018, extending one of the longest periods of sustained visitor growth. Construction, while volatile month to month, also remains on a high plateau. The long run of strong demand has created very tight […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Not much lift from tax cuts in Hawaii’s soaring economy
Hawaii’s economy continues to grow, but with expected slowing as the cycle matures. Tourism is booming, construction remains on a healthy plateau, and jobs are plentiful. The big story this quarter is the federal tax cuts that went into effect on January 1. These will provide a modest boost for Hawaii families, who have seen […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Hawaii’s Long Expansion Gets Global Economic Lift
Improving global conditions provide a favorable environment for continued expansion in the Islands. Visitor arrivals are surging to record highs, and unemployment is reaching new lows. While families are benefitting from the improved employment prospects, many have yet to see significant income growth. The expansion is now well into its eighth year, and all indications […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Slowing Ongoing, Despite Arrivals Boom
The Hawaii economy is decelerating. Job growth this year will come in at less than 1%, down from nearly 2% just two years ago, the consequence of a flattening construction path and the natural effects of tightening labor markets. Despite surprisingly persistent gains, even the robust tourism industry will move to a lower growth trend […]
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