Forecasts
The UHERO Forecast Project provides Hawaii with analysis of economic, demographic, and business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO County Forecast: Counties Share Positive Outlook, But Face Individual Challenges
Hawaii’s four counties are moving steadily forward, accommodating new visitors, restoring lost jobs, and growing household incomes. Prospects remain good for the next few years, supported by health in the US economy, local labor markets, and construction. Growth rates will begin to trend lower, as each county converges toward its trend path and as construction […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Growing in a Riskier World
Like the U.S. economy overall, Hawaii continues on a moderate growth path despite financial market volatility, a surging dollar, and global slowing. To be sure, record-setting levels of visitor activity are beginning to feel the adverse effects, but construction strength and a pause in federal sequestration have arrived at just the right time. While risks […]
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion Will Continue, Despite Global Challenges
This year has turned out a bit better than anticipated, and prospects remain good for 2016. Next year will see some easing of visitor growth, but no retreat from the high levels of activity that have built up in recent years. The construction expansion will continue, and tightening labor market conditions will support income gains. […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Except for Weather, Outlook Shines
Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to look bright. Tourism is pushing toward new records, and the construction upswing is building in strength. The overall expansion remains solidly on track, delivering better labor market conditions and the prospect of further household income gains. Still, in the midst of this hot and soggy summer we are pondering some […]
Read MoreUHERO County Forecast: Neighbor Island Tourism Still Has Room to Grow
After a rather soft 2014, the counties are poised for better performance over the next several years. Tourism will see additional healthy gains on the Neighbor Islands for the next two years, before rising occupancy and costs begin to bring down growth rates, something that has already occurred on Oahu. Construction, which has disappointed so far, […]
Read MoreHawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Building Up
Last year’s construction gains were smaller than anticipated. Activity will ramp up a bit this year, as Kakaako condo building intensifies and new tourism-related projects add to the mix. The more attenuated schedule of rail building and lagging single-family development will generate a lower and later peak to the current construction cycle. A summary of […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii on Steady Course for 2015
The Hawaii economy in 2015 will look a lot like last year’s. Tourism will see only marginal gains, but steady labor market improvement will continue, and there will be moderate income growth. While not all damage from the past recession has been repaired, by many measures economic activity in the state is returning to normal. […]
Read MoreUHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Moderate Regional Growth Faces Rising Risks
The Asia-Pacific economy slowed this year, and only slight acceleration is expected in 2015. While US economic conditions are steadily improving, Japan has had to delay for now additional tax hikes after the first one prompted contraction. Lower oil prices will be an overall plus for the global economy, even if they pose challenges for […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy In Need of An Engine
Prospects for Hawaii growth remain muted. Despite a pickup over the summer, visitor arrivals have been soft this year, and the period of robust visitor spending increases is behind us. A mixed global economic environment and limited visitor industry capacity will keep a lid on future gains. While the construction expansion continues, it does so […]
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