Forecasts
The UHERO Forecast Project provides Hawaii with analysis of economic, demographic, and business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO County Forecast: Despite Lull in Tourism, County Expansions Continue
Moderate economic expansion will continue in each of Hawaii’s counties. Last year’s tourism weakness continued in the first quarter of this year, and incremental gains for 2014 will be slight. Beyond this year, available capacity will limit further visitor industry growth. The construction expansion has proceeded further on Oahu than the elsewhere in the state, […]
Read MoreHawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upturn On Track
Hawaii’s construction expansion continues apace. New condo towers in Kakaako are spurring double-digit growth in permits for residential construction. A sharp rise in commercial construction, much of it in resort areas, is on the horizon. Public spending on infrastructure has also leapt upward, as the State works to address shortfalls that have built up in […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: After Austerity, Road Ahead Will Be Smoother
Federal budget woes caused a softening of growth at year-end. With that behind us, we’ll see better performance in 2014. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
Read MoreUHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Pacific Rim Will Edge Forward After Weak 2013
The Asia-Pacific region has seen another year of lackluster growth. The global environment for exports— the region’s lifeblood—has remained exceptionally weak, as the European debt crisis has lingered and US fiscal contraction and inaction have slowed the world’s largest economy. Developed economy weakness and a deliberate policy shift have limited the growth impetus from China […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: No Shutdown For Hawaii Growth
Growth is holding up in Hawaii, driven by still-strong tourism and rising construction. Recent hints of slowing make Washington worrisome. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion to Strengthen Despite Washington Worries
Hawaii is headed toward a strong expansion path. While federal tax increases and the spending sequester have weighed on growth in the year’s first half, construction and service sector progress will maintain forward momentum. Incremental contributions from tourism will be more limited as that industry pushes up against capacity constraints. The Islands are poised for […]
Read MoreUHERO County Forecast: Growth Accelerates Statewide
2012 was another year of strong tourism gains for Hawaii’s counties, and a year when significant growth spread to much of the broader economy. Oahu continues to be further along in recovery, but the Neighbor Islands are catching up fast. This year, economic growth will quicken, with an impetus from construction, which has turned the […]
Read MoreHawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upswing Picks Up Speed
Construction turned the corner in Hawaii last year after five straight years of contraction. We are now seeing impressive gains in percentage terms for private building permits, although these are starting from very depressed levels. Home building, retail and visitor industry upgrades, the ongoing boom in photovoltaic installation, and, yes, rail, will combine to drive […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Expansion Shifts Into Higher Gear
2012 marked a transition to healthier growth. Room for rapid tourism gains is now limited, but other sectors will pick up the pace. A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.
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