The U.S. downturn and record-high oil prices have taken a big bite out of the Hawai’i tourism industry. Visitor arrivals will tumble 9% this year, the biggest annual decline since 2001. Because of deteriorating conditions for the U.S., Japanese and global economies, we now believe that a visitor industry recovery will not begin until 2010. While economic statistics for the aggregate economy this year are coming in a bit better than expected, this will not last. With the steep tourism downturn, ongoing slowing in construction, and a developing state fiscal crunch, the Hawai’i economy is in for a weak 2009.
